Jefferies' proprietary staffing-industry analysis, published Thursday, paints a mixed portrait of hiring activity in February. The report finds recruiter job postings at Robert Half Inc (NYSE:RHI) still far below historical levels, while ManpowerGroup Inc (NYSE:MAN) shows improvement in postings though certain recruiter metrics remain beneath long-term averages.
Recruiter posting levels and platform trends
According to Jefferies, Robert Half recruiter listings were 73% below historical averages. The firm also notes that, by the end of February, Robert Half recruiter postings were up 43% year-over-year and rose 6% month-over-month, but those year-over-year gains are compared with a weak prior-period base: February 2025 postings were 81% below the historical average. Recruiters made up 12% of Robert Half's total job postings.
ManpowerGroup's recruiter postings improved markedly on short-term comparisons, rising 108% year-over-year and 53% month-over-month, yet they still trailed the long-term average by 6%. In contrast, ManpowerGroup's total job postings stood 44% above the historical average, with recruiters representing 19% of that total.
Platform-wide posting trends and temporary staffing
Indeed's U.S. job postings declined 6% year-over-year in February on both seasonal and non-seasonal bases, marking the 40th consecutive month of year-over-year decreases; the February rate matched the 6% decline recorded in January.
Jefferies also highlights continued weakness in temporary staffing. U.S. temporary staffing growth contracted 3.2% year-over-year in February, a deterioration from a 2.2% decline in January. That contraction marks the 38th consecutive month of negative year-over-year growth, versus a long-term average of 2.7% growth. Temporary staffing penetration edged down slightly month-over-month to 1.54%, below a five-year average of 1.82%.
Macro labor data and select international notes
Broad U.S. labor indicators in February showed softness. Non-farm payrolls fell by 92,000, missing the consensus estimate of a 58,000 decline. Private payrolls dropped 86,000, also below the expected 65,000 decline. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up 10 basis points from the prior month and slightly above the consensus forecast of 4.3%.
Wage measures showed modest upside versus expectations: average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month-over-month, 10 basis points higher than consensus, and year-over-year earnings growth reached 3.8%, also 10 basis points above expectations and 10 basis points higher than the prior month.
Jefferies' analysis includes a snapshot of France's activity in February: manufacturing PMI eased to 50.1 from 51.2 in January, while services PMI improved to 49.6 from 48.4. French temporary staffing contracted 1.3% year-over-year in February, a 160 basis-point improvement from January's 2.9% decline.
Outlook from Jefferies
Looking ahead, Jefferies projects Robert Half's first-quarter 2026 revenue to decline 4.5% year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance. By contrast, ManpowerGroup Americas revenue is expected to increase about 2% year-over-year.
Key takeaways
- Recruiter postings at Robert Half remain substantially below historical norms even as short-term posting rates tick higher.
- ManpowerGroup shows stronger overall posting volumes and sizable short-term gains in recruiter listings, though recruiter postings still sit under their long-term average.
- Broader labor indicators - including payrolls, temp staffing contraction, and modest wage gains - point to uneven labor market conditions in February.