Jefferies reduced its rating on Orion Oyj (ORNAV) from "buy" to "hold" on Friday, saying the stock already reflects much of the value tied to its prostate cancer therapy Nubeqa. The brokerage framed the change as a valuation call rather than a reassessment of near-term operational performance, arguing that Nubeqa's current commercial momentum appears embedded in Orion's share price.
In its update, Jefferies raised its estimate for Nubeqa's worldwide peak sales to c4.6 billion, up from c4.2 billion following a recent review of the prostate cancer franchise. Despite the higher peak-sales assumption, the firm said this revision does not materially alter the risk-reward profile over the coming 12 months.
Patent and competitive dynamics featured prominently in Jefferies' assessment. The report identified expected generic competition for Xtandi from 2028 as a potential source of pressure across the prostate cancer drug class. Jefferies noted that Nubeqa's U.S. patent currently expires in 2033 and in Europe in 2035, and that ongoing litigation could potentially extend protections to 2037. The brokerage described any extension to 2037 as an upside scenario rather than its base case.
Jefferies also pointed to limited visibility in Orion's development pipeline. The note said recent Phase II setbacks have weakened confidence in the firm's research productivity. It highlighted opevesostat, which is moving into Phase II testing for rare solid tumors, but emphasised that the programme remains at an early stage and is unlikely to compensate for revenue pressure that may follow losses of exclusivity on established products.
Dividend considerations came into the view as well. Jefferies observed that Orion's dividend yield remains below the broader market level, which it said further constrains conviction at current valuation levels.
Summing up, the brokerage maintained that stronger fundamentals for Nubeqa support Orion's business, but that the combination of an already-robust valuation and pipeline uncertainties caps potential upside. That balance led Jefferies to conclude the overall risk-reward profile is neutral for the next year.
Contextual note: This assessment focuses on valuation, patent timelines, clinical-stage progress, and dividend yield as the primary factors shaping Jefferies' view.