Foot traffic to industrial and specialty distribution locations improved in March across the companies tracked by Jefferies, according to the firms latest note. The dataset, compiled from roughly 25 million active cellphone geo-location devices, signaled sequential gains following a weak start to the year, with February and March both showing improvement.
Jefferies highlighted that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has remained in expansion territory for two consecutive months, and that Fastenal reported accelerating growth in manufacturing and fastener sales in February. The foot traffic readings for individual distributors were mixed in magnitude but uniformly positive for most names monitored in March.
Company-level monthly and rolling reads
Grainger (NYSE: GWW) posted the largest year-over-year lift in monthly visits, with March coming in at 10.6% versus 10.0% in February. That pushed Grainger's three-month rolling foot traffic to 7.2%. Consensus estimates included in Jefferies' note call for first quarter high-touch solutions daily sales to increase by approximately 6% year-over-year.
Wesco (NYSE: WCC) moved to positive territory in March, with monthly visits up 5.9% year-over-year compared with -1.7% in February. Its three-month rolling figure was -1.2%. Jefferies cited consensus projections that Wescos electrical and electronic solutions segment - which represents roughly 40% of total sales - could see about 7.3% organic growth in the first quarter.
Parker Hannifin (NYSE: PH) registered a March monthly increase of 1.7% year-over-year, while its three-month rolling metric softened to -1.5%. Consensus forecasts referenced in the note show third quarter fiscal 2026 North America industrial organic sales growth of 2.9% year-over-year.
Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST) recorded a March year-over-year monthly visits reading of -1.1%, down from 1.0% in February. Separately, the company reported February daily sales up 13.3%.
Pool Corp (NASDAQ: POOL) showed a strong improvement in local same-store monthly visits, which rose to 14.4% year-over-year, bringing its three-month rolling figure to 3.6%. Consensus forecasts included in Jefferies' note project first quarter net sales up approximately 2.3%.
Context and methodology
Jefferies foot traffic analysis relies on cellphone geo-location signals from about 25 million active devices. The firm framed the March readings as a continuation of sequential improvement following the weak start to the year.
Overall, the March data indicate positive month-to-month momentum across most of the distributors tracked, while three-month rolling averages and consensus sales expectations paint a more nuanced picture across companies and segments.
Summary
- Jefferies' foot traffic data from roughly 25 million active devices showed sequential improvement in March for several industrial distributors after a weak start to the year.
- Grainger, Wesco, Parker Hannifin and Pool Corp reported year-over-year monthly visit increases in March, while Fastenal saw a modest decline in monthly visits despite higher February daily sales.
- Three-month rolling metrics are mixed and consensus sales forecasts vary by company.
Key points
- March month-over-month visits rose across Grainger, Wesco, Parker Hannifin and Pool Corp; Fastenal's visits were down slightly.
- Sectors impacted include industrial distribution, manufacturing supply chains and electrical/electronic components given the companies' business mix.
- Jefferies uses a 25 million-device cellphone geo-location panel to estimate same-store and local visit trends.
Risks and uncertainties
- Three-month rolling foot traffic metrics remain negative for some names, indicating short-term softness despite March improvements; this affects near-term demand visibility in industrial and specialty distribution.
- Discrepancies between monthly visit trends and reported sales readings (for example, Fastenals lower March visits versus higher February daily sales) create uncertainty in interpreting momentum across distributors.