Stock Markets February 2, 2026

India's Manufacturing Activity Tick Up in January, But Business Sentiment Weakens

PMI edges higher as domestic demand recovers; hiring and pricing power remain constrained

By Marcus Reed
India's Manufacturing Activity Tick Up in January, But Business Sentiment Weakens

India's factory sector recorded a modest increase in activity in January, with the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.4 from December's 55.0. The gain reflected firmer domestic orders and stronger output, but export demand stayed weak, hiring remained subdued despite a small rise, and business confidence fell to a three-and-a-half-year low.

Key Points

  • The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 in January from 55.0 in December, remaining above the 50 expansion threshold since July 2021.
  • Domestic demand drove the pickup in activity as export orders improved only marginally; manufacturers reported orders from Asia, Australia, Canada, Europe, and the Middle East.
  • Employment growth was modest despite a three-month high in hiring, and business confidence fell to a three-and-a-half-year low with only 15% expecting higher output over the next year.

India's manufacturing sector showed a modest improvement in January as demand conditions firmed, but the uptick failed to restore broad confidence among producers or to trigger a sizeable acceleration in employment.

The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, increased to 55.4 in January from December's two-year low of 55.0. That result missed the earlier preliminary reading of 56.8. The index has consistently stayed above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction since July 2021.

Output strengthened compared with December, when activity had slowed to a 38-month low. New orders, which track demand, gained some momentum after the previous month's slowdown, suggesting a pickup in underlying domestic demand.

Export demand, by contrast, remained weak. Export orders only improved marginally from December, implying the recent rise in overall activity was driven largely by domestic customers. Manufacturers said they received orders from clients across Asia, Australia, Canada, Europe, and the Middle East.

Employment moves were cautious. Hiring increased to a three-month high, yet overall job growth stayed modest as firms calibrated staffing to meet higher operating requirements without pursuing aggressive recruitment.

Sentiment among manufacturers weakened noticeably. Business confidence fell to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years, with only 15% of surveyed companies expecting output to rise over the coming year and the majority forecasting no change.

On the cost side, input inflation picked up moderately and at the fastest pace in four months. Firms pointed to higher prices for chemicals, copper, iron, steel, and transportation as contributors to the rise in input costs. Despite firmer demand, output price inflation eased to its lowest level in nearly two years, indicating limited pricing power for manufacturers.


Sectoral note - The results have implications across manufacturing supply chains and logistics networks. Stronger domestic orders may support freight volumes and raw-material flows, while weak export demand and muted output price gains could constrain revenue headroom for producers and affect related commodities and transport providers.

Risks

  • Weak export demand represents an uncertainty for manufacturing revenues and could weigh on export-oriented sectors and trade-related logistics.
  • Limited pricing power despite firmer demand - shown by the drop in output price inflation to its lowest in nearly two years - could squeeze margins for manufacturers and suppliers of chemicals, metals, and transport services.
  • Rising input costs, at the fastest pace in four months and driven by chemicals, copper, iron, steel, and transportation, may pressure operating costs across industrial supply chains.

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