HSBC has raised its projection for the global artificial intelligence total addressable market through 2030, driven largely by stronger-than-expected corporate investment in AI even as consumer-facing services underperform earlier hopes.
In an investor note released on Tuesday, the bank increased its estimate of total AI market revenue over the 2026-2030 period by 38%. HSBC said the upward revision was principally the result of a material upgrade to business-focused AI spending that more than offsets a downward revision to consumer AI expectations.
B2B versus B2C: divergent trajectories
HSBC raised its B2B AI industry revenue forecasts by 74% across the 2026-2030 timeframe. The bank described the business-focused market as "accelerating significantly," naming the emergence of agentic AI, a widening set of enterprise use cases and rapid progress in coding tools as core catalysts.
The bank singled out agentic AI as a particularly important growth driver, saying it is enabling companies to adopt AI faster and at a larger scale than previous generations of models. HSBC also assessed vendor positioning within that enterprise market, stating that Anthropic currently appears to be "a clear leader in B2B," while characterizing OpenAI as "a serious but distant contender alongside Gemini."
By contrast, HSBC trimmed its B2C AI revenue forecasts by 20% for the same period. The firm attributed the cut to weaker-than-expected user growth of consumer chatbot products, difficulties monetizing those offerings and dilution of average revenue per user from lower-priced subscription tiers.
Market structure and concentration risks
HSBC's analysts said the industry is moving toward a concentrated market structure, describing a Western market dynamic they termed an "LLM oligopoly." The bank argued that high computing infrastructure costs create material barriers to entry, supporting a small number of dominant players.
OpenAI funding gap revised
Reflecting a more constructive view of capital needs and monetization prospects, HSBC cut its estimate of OpenAI's 2030 funding gap to $77 billion from $154 billion. The bank cited improved cash flow assumptions, additional funding options and the rising value of AMD shares that could eventually be monetized as reasons for the narrower gap.
Key takeaways
- HSBC increased its total AI revenue forecast for 2026-2030 by 38%, driven by a 74% upgrade to B2B revenue projections.
- Agentic AI, broader enterprise use cases and coding tools are cited as principal catalysts accelerating business adoption.
- B2C revenue forecasts were cut by 20% due to weaker user growth, monetization challenges and ARPU dilution from lower-priced subscriptions.
Risks and uncertainties
- Concentration risk - the formation of an "LLM oligopoly" could limit competition and raise systemic dependency on a few providers, affecting enterprise procurement and costs in the cloud and compute sectors.
- Consumer monetization risk - slower-than-expected user growth and difficulties monetizing chatbot services could keep B2C revenues below early projections, influencing investor expectations for consumer-facing software and media segments.
- Capital and funding uncertainty - although HSBC narrowed OpenAI's estimated funding gap, the firm still flags material financing needs that depend on improved cash flow assumptions and potential monetization of assets such as AMD shares.
HSBC's revisions underline a bifurcated outlook for AI through 2030: robust upside in enterprise spending and a more restrained view on consumer monetization. The bank's analysis emphasizes how technological advances in agentic systems and developer tooling are reshaping where value is expected to accumulate in the AI ecosystem.