Goldman Sachs has revised its stances on two prominent European real estate entities as the 2025 financial year approaches, prompted by enhanced forecasts, updated macroeconomic assumptions, and company-specific strategic developments. The bank has moved Castellum's recommendation from Neutral to Buy and upgraded Colonial Inmobiliaria from Sell to Neutral, reflecting a forward-looking valuation update to 2027.
At a sector-wide level, Goldman Sachs projects approximately 2% growth in earnings per share (EPS) and a 3% increase in net tangible assets (NTA) for 2025, with expectations of more vigorous acceleration in 2026. Analysts anticipate that during the upcoming earnings season, emphasis will center on trends involving leasing activity, asset portfolio rotations, and strategic decisions such as restructurings and share repurchase programs.
For 2026, the coverage universe is expected to deliver about a 10% Total Accounting Return, driven primarily by factors including rental income growth, ongoing investments, and supplementary revenue streams. These elements are considered attractive in light of current valuations.
The promotion of Castellum to Buy is attributed to a conjunction of improving macroeconomic conditions within Sweden and a distinct strategy pivot following leadership restructuring. This new direction emphasizes enhanced leasing efforts to boost occupancy, reduction in administrative overheads, narrowing funding spreads, and an explicit disposal plan complemented by share buybacks. Goldman Sachs now incorporates targeted disposals estimated at roughly 11 billion Swedish krona over 2026–2027 and share repurchases totaling about 4 billion krona within 12 months. Their EPS projection for 2027 stands approximately 10% higher than the consensus forecast from Bloomberg, leading to a price target elevation to 138 Swedish krona, indicating potential appreciation of around 28% from current levels.
Colonial Inmobiliaria's upgrade to Neutral follows a period marked by its stock underperformance, having lagged roughly 15% over the last nine months. The revised valuation, extended to future periods, suggests limited downside risk paired with an approximate 3% upside potential. Consequently, the price target has been lifted from €4.87 to €5.24.
Overall, Goldman Sachs' adjustment has raised 12-month price targets across its European real estate coverage by an average of around 6%, a reflection of the updated macroeconomic outlook and valuation metrics.
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