Goldman Sachs has shifted its recommendation on Schindler Holding to neutral from sell, pointing to the company's relatively weak share performance over the past 12 months and signs that growth dynamics are improving.
The bank highlights that Schindler's shares have gained 5.4% over the last 12 months, a result that falls well short of the 42.1% average increase recorded across Goldman Sachs’ Multi-Industry coverage. The stock also lagged peer KONE by 15.3 percentage points over the same period.
In its note the brokerage said it now expects stronger growth in 2026. "We now expect growth in 2026 to come in towards the top end of the group’s L/MSD target, on the back of backlog conversion, modernization growth and China now being a less relevant part of the portfolio," it stated.
Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month price target to SFr272 from SFr265. That target sits modestly above the current share price of SFr270, implying roughly 0.7% upside from present levels. The firm’s market capitalization estimate for Schindler is SFr38.5 billion.
The analyst update also emphasized geographic mix shifts: Schindler’s exposure to China has declined from 18% of sales in 2021 to 10% in 2025, and Goldman Sachs projects a further reduction to 9% in both 2026 and 2027. By comparison, the brokerage notes that Middle East exposure is approximately 1.5% of sales, below the sector median of 1.9% and materially under KONE’s roughly 5.5% exposure.
On profitability, Schindler posted an adjusted EBIT margin of 13% in 2025. Goldman Sachs expects that margin to remain around 13% in 2026, supported in part by field efficiency savings. The note also observes that Schindler’s margin now exceeds KONE’s after closing a material gap in recent years.
Relative to consensus, Goldman Sachs is more optimistic on near-term profitability. The bank is 6% ahead of consensus for first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBIT and sits 4% and 2% ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus for first-quarter 2026 and full-year 2026 sales, respectively.
Goldman Sachs’ financial forecasts include revenue of SFr11.36 billion in 2026, rising to SFr12.04 billion by 2028. EPS is projected at SFr10.31 in 2026, SFr11.23 in 2027 and SFr11.68 in 2028. The brokerage’s multiple assumptions put the 2026 P/E at 26.2 times, falling to 23.1 times by 2028. Dividend yield is forecast at 2.9% in 2026 and to increase to 3.2% in 2028.
Balance sheet metrics cited in the research note show net cash to EBITDA at 2x at year-end 2025. Goldman Sachs identified the company’s Capital Markets Day on June 3 as a potential event that could prompt announcements about capital allocation.
The bank listed key upside scenarios as stronger-than-expected demand and more rapid realization of cost savings. By contrast, downside risks include the impact of conflict in the Middle East, cancellation of order backlog, pricing pressure and acquisitions that destroy value.
Outlook
Goldman Sachs’ upgrade to neutral reflects an assessment that the combination of backlog conversion, growth in modernization activity and a diminished dependence on China should support higher growth in 2026. The modest increase in the price target and the relatively small implied upside suggest the brokerage views the risk-reward as balanced at current prices.
Key data recap
- 12-month price target: SFr272 (previously SFr265)
- Current price referenced: SFr270
- Market cap estimate: SFr38.5 billion
- 2026 revenue forecast: SFr11.36 billion; 2028: SFr12.04 billion
- 2026 EPS forecast: SFr10.31; 2028 EPS: SFr11.68
- Adjusted EBIT margin: 13% in 2025, expected to hold in 2026
- Net cash/EBITDA: 2x at year-end 2025
Conclusion
The research note frames Schindler as a stock that underperformed peers over the prior 12 months but may be entering a phase of improved growth visibility. Investors will likely watch the June 3 Capital Markets Day and upcoming operational updates for confirmation of the trends Goldman Sachs has highlighted.