Executives at two of the largest U.S. oil companies offered investors fresh, if cautious, commentary about Venezuela's oil potential during their fourth-quarter earnings calls, underscoring the distance between preliminary commercial interest and the firm investment commitments the U.S. administration has sought.
Exxon Mobil's chief executive emphasized the company's technical ability to reduce the cost of extracting Venezuela's heavy crude, a grade that has typically been expensive to produce. Chevron's CEO said his company could refine significantly more Venezuelan crude at its U.S. Gulf and West Coast refineries in the near term, while also noting the possibility of boosting gross production in Venezuela by roughly 50% in the short term.
Despite those operational indications, neither firm announced any new long-term capital programs in Venezuela. Both executives repeatedly framed future project decisions as contingent on clear legal frameworks and a stable political environment.
The comments took place against the backdrop of a U.S. administration push to draw up to $100 billion of American investment into Venezuela's oil sector after recent political change in the country. The two chief executives were asked a number of geopolitically oriented questions during the calls, reflecting investor interest in how political developments might translate into commercial opportunities.
Exxon’s CEO had described Venezuela as "uninvestable" only weeks earlier, but during the call he said he believes the U.S. administration is committed to making the changes necessary to attract and secure new investment, including support for an eventual transition to democratic governance. Exxon exited Venezuela nearly 20 years ago after its assets there were nationalized.
Recent administrative and legislative moves in Venezuela were noted by the executives. The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control enacted measures to ease some sanctions on the country, and Venezuela's National Assembly passed legislation expected to expand the autonomy of private producers. The executives indicated these developments are relevant to the calculus of potential re-engagement, but they did not treat them as sufficient on their own to justify long-term spending.
Chevron, currently the only U.S. oil major with active production in Venezuela, said it handles about 50,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude at its U.S. refineries today. The company believes it can increase processing by another 100,000 barrels per day across its Gulf and West Coast facilities. That ability to take more Venezuelan crude through U.S. refiners represents a concrete near-term operational lever, even as Chevron stopped short of committing to multi-year project investment without firmer legal and regulatory signals.
"We certainly could see operations and footprint expand in Venezuela. And we’re working with the U.S. government and the Venezuelan government to try to create circumstances that would enable that," Chevron's CEO said, stressing that a longer-term position depends on stability and regulatory clarity.
Executives also discussed regional implications. Exxon’s CEO said developments in Venezuela could ease operational constraints in neighboring Guyana. Exxon and Chevron are joint venture partners in the Stabroek oilfield off Guyana’s coast, parts of which are under force majeure and remain unexplored due to an ongoing territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela now before the International Court of Justice.
"With the developments in Venezuela, perhaps we’ll see an opportunity to (have) less naval patrols, that’ll make it a little more friendly environment," Exxon’s CEO said. He also noted a practical advantage to force majeure in the disputed portion of the Stabroek Block: it pauses timing obligations and therefore preserves an opportunity to act in those areas when access is restored.
The executives’ remarks provide a window into how major oil companies are weighing commercial opportunity against legal and political risk. They also illustrate the layered conditions the companies say must be met before moving from operational adjustments to longer-term capital deployment in Venezuela.
Key points
- Exxon highlighted technological capability to reduce costs of producing Venezuela's heavy crude; Chevron said it can immediately process more Venezuelan crude at U.S. refineries. Sectors impacted: upstream oil production, refining.
- Both companies require stronger legal frameworks and political stability before committing to long-term investments. Sectors impacted: international energy investment, project development.
- Regional operations may be affected - developments in Venezuela could influence activity in Guyana, where parts of a major offshore block are under force majeure. Sectors impacted: offshore exploration and production.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory and legal clarity remains insufficient for long-term commitments - affects capital allocation decisions across the energy sector.
- Political stability in Venezuela is uncertain and remains a gating factor for project re-engagement - impacts investment timelines for oil companies and service providers.
- Territorial disputes and force majeure in adjacent maritime areas limit access to parts of offshore blocks, constraining exploration and development plans in nearby jurisdictions such as Guyana.