Stock Markets February 5, 2026

Evonik Shares Tick Higher After Mixed Q4 and Cautious 2026 Guidance

Q4 EBITDA misses estimates slightly, but FY2026 guidance and dividend framework help calm investors

By Ajmal Hussain
Evonik Shares Tick Higher After Mixed Q4 and Cautious 2026 Guidance

Evonik reversed early losses and gained about 1% after pre-releasing fourth-quarter figures that showed a modest shortfall on EBITDA versus consensus, alongside a fiscal year 2026 earnings guide that broadly matches analyst expectations. The company also cut near-term dividend expectations and set a new payout ratio range, moves that recalibrate shareholder returns amid softer demand.

Key Points

  • Q4 EBITDA was €357 million, 2% below consensus of €363 million; Custom Solutions missed expectations while Advanced Technologies beat forecasts.
  • Fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guidance set at €1.7-2.0 billion, aligning with consensus of €1.842 billion at the midpoint - this likely improved investor sentiment.
  • Dividend for fiscal year 2025 cut to €1.00 per share; new payout ratio of 40-60% implies an approximate €0.75 dividend for fiscal 2027 with a 5.5% yield - impacts shareholder returns and income-focused investors.

Evonik shares recovered from intraday weakness to finish roughly 1% higher after the specialty chemicals group pre-released its Q4 results and updated its dividend policy and fiscal year guidance.

The company reported fourth-quarter EBITDA of €357 million, which was 2% below the consensus figure of €363 million. Within the business lines, Custom Solutions underperformed relative to expectations while Advanced Technologies delivered results ahead of forecasts.

Evonik issued an EBITDA outlook for fiscal year 2026 of €1.7-2.0 billion. The midpoint of that range is in line with analyst consensus of €1.842 billion. Market participants appeared to take comfort from a guide that was not weaker than expected, a factor that likely supported the modest uptick in the share price after the pre-release.

Alongside the operational update, Evonik adjusted its shareholder return approach. The company now expects to pay a dividend of €1.00 per share for fiscal year 2025, which is below the analyst estimate of €1.17 per share. Going forward, the company will shift to a payout ratio of 40-60% of net income. Based on that policy, the firm indicated an implied dividend for fiscal year 2027 of about €0.75 per share, which corresponds to a 5.5% yield under the company’s scenario.

The reduction in the near-term dividend places Evonik among a number of European chemical companies that have been revising shareholder returns in response to challenging market demand. Despite the cut, Evonik’s implied dividend yield remains higher than that of competitor BASF, which is cited at 4.7%.

Commentary around the guidance suggested that consensus alignment for 2026 was beneficial to sentiment, though the company and market observers flagged that year-to-year performance may be backloaded. That means stronger results could be expected in the later part of the fiscal year, while the first quarter carries elevated earnings risk given current demand conditions.

In summary, Evonik’s pre-release combined a small quarterly earnings miss with guidance that met market expectations and a recalibrated dividend policy. The net reaction from investors was a modestly positive move in the stock, driven primarily by the fiscal 2026 guidance range and the clarity provided on future payout mechanics.

Risks

  • Near-term demand weakness that contributed to the Q4 miss could continue to pressure earnings, particularly in the first quarter - affects the chemicals and industrials sectors.
  • A lower dividend in the short term reduces cash returns to investors and may influence investor appetite among income-oriented shareholders - impacts equity and dividend-focused markets.
  • Company guidance indicates potential earnings concentration in the latter part of the year, implying execution and market demand risks in early 2026 that could affect stock performance - relevant to corporate earnings and market volatility.

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