Stock Markets February 3, 2026

European Wheat Retreats from Two-Month Peak as Euro Strengthens

Milling wheat slips after earlier high; exporters and buyers weigh currency moves and tight export competition

By Ajmal Hussain
European Wheat Retreats from Two-Month Peak as Euro Strengthens

European milling wheat futures pulled back slightly on Tuesday after earlier reaching a near two-month high, as a stronger euro against the dollar applied pressure. Traders are balancing recent commodity rebounds with currency volatility while watching tight competition between French and Black Sea origins for business in key import markets such as Egypt and Morocco. Official EU export data showed soft wheat shipments at 12.82 million metric tons by February 1, unchanged year-on-year.

Key Points

  • March milling wheat on Euronext settled at 193.25 euros ($228.38) per metric ton, down 0.1% after earlier peaking at 194.75 euros.
  • Currency moves - specifically a stronger euro against the dollar - pressured European wheat despite earlier support from rebounds in crude oil and precious metals.
  • Intense export competition between French and Black Sea origins is evident, with Egyptian demand for both origins and recent reported sales of Ukrainian 11.5% wheat at about $245-$250 c&f for near-term Mediterranean delivery. This affects agricultural exporters, shipping, and commodity trading sectors.

European wheat futures eased on Tuesday, reversing part of Monday's gains after the euro strengthened versus the dollar and commodity traders reassessed market volatility.

On Euronext's Paris futures board, March milling wheat settled at 193.25 euros per metric ton, equivalent to $228.38, slipping 0.1% on the day. Earlier in the session the contract reached 194.75 euros, its highest intraday level since November 20 and marginally above last Friday's two-month peak.

Markets initially drew support from rebounds in crude oil and precious metals as the decline that hit commodities on Monday began to stabilise. Later, however, a firmer euro weighed on wheat prices as currency movements altered the relative competitiveness of export origins for dollar-denominated buyers.

Traders said futures and exchange-rate moves are being monitored closely amid intense competition between exporting regions for business in major importers such as Egypt and Morocco. Participants pointed to steady Egyptian demand for both Black Sea and French supplies. In the past week, at least two shipments of Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat were reported sold to Egypt at about $245-$250 cost and freight for near-term delivery into Mediterranean ports.

Reports also noted several French wheat cargoes recently sold to Egypt for February and March shipment schedules, supplementing two vessels lined up to load at France's northern port of Dunkirk. A German trader commented that "French and Black Sea prices are currently very close in c&f terms in the important Egyptian market," adding that the slight price edge enjoyed by Black Sea origins could ebb quickly depending on exchange-rate moves and Euronext shifts.

Official European Union data released on Tuesday showed cumulative EU soft wheat exports at 12.82 million metric tons by February 1 since the start of the 2025/26 season in July, unchanged from the same point a year earlier. Analysts cited by market participants estimate that actual EU export volumes are running substantially higher than last season once gaps in the official reporting are taken into account.


Market participants continue to weigh short-term influences - currency swings and commodity sector momentum - alongside the ongoing rivalry among exporting origins for purchases from North African buyers.

Risks

  • Exchange-rate volatility - a firmer euro can reduce the price competitiveness of euro-priced wheat for dollar-based importers, impacting export volumes and trader margins in the agriculture and commodities sectors.
  • Price convergence among origins - tightening price spreads between French and Black Sea wheat could shift flows rapidly, creating uncertainty for exporters, freight operators, and buyers in North Africa and the Mediterranean.
  • Data transparency - official EU export figures appear to understate actual shipments according to analysts, introducing uncertainty for market participants that rely on reported statistics for supply assessments.

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