Stock Markets January 30, 2026

Dollar-Store Leaders in 2026: Winners, Valuations and Headwinds

Dollar General, Five Below, Dollarama and Dollar Tree emerge as the sector’s most watched names amid contrasting fundamentals and technical signals

By Maya Rios DG FIVE DOL DLTR
Dollar-Store Leaders in 2026: Winners, Valuations and Headwinds
DG FIVE DOL DLTR

The dollar-store segment has been among 2026’s most dynamic retail arenas, with a handful of chains delivering outsized returns. Analysis using Investing Pro metrics highlights Dollar General and Five Below as notable growth stories, Dollarama for its profitability, and Dollar Tree for its mixed technical and valuation signals. Each company presents a distinct mix of upside potential, valuation considerations and operational developments that investors should weigh.

Key Points

  • Dollar General leads the sector with a 100.8% one-year return, 3.4% dividend yield, 23.8% analyst target upside, a 21.8x forward P/E, a FAIR Pro Score of 2.44, and strong buy technical signals; it has expanded same-day delivery to over 17,000 stores and pursued store remodels, and was upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan.
  • Five Below has a 96.0% one-year return, projected 2026 EPS growth of 38.7%, 30.6% analyst target upside, a 29.5x forward P/E, and a GOOD Pro Score of 2.71; it reported a 14.5% comparable sales increase during the holiday period and saw price-target increases from firms including UBS and Truist Securities.
  • Dollarama shows standout profitability with a 26.5% EBITDA margin and 148.9% ROE, a 33.1% one-year return, but has a -16.9% fair value upside, a 39.0x forward P/E, and a C$211.38 mean price target implying 8.3% upside; Moody’s moved its outlook to positive from stable.

The dollar-store category has produced notable winners in 2026 as shifting consumer spending patterns favored low-price retail formats. Using Investing Pro measurements, a group of leading chains stand out for differing reasons: value-oriented execution, rapid growth, high profitability or, conversely, uncertain technical momentum. Below is a company-by-company look at the top dollar-store stocks identified by the Investing Pro analysis.


Overview

Investing Pro metrics rank firms across value, growth and financial strength. Within the dollar-store cohort, four names are called out: Dollar General, Five Below, Dollarama and Dollar Tree. Each exhibits distinct strengths and vulnerabilities tied to valuation, earnings outlooks and recent operational moves.


Dollar General (NYSE:DG) - The Comeback King

Dollar General has led the pack with a one-year return of 100.8%, a performance that positions it as the sector’s most pronounced winner. The stock yields 3.4% in dividends and carries 23.8% analyst target upside. On forward earnings multiple, DG trades at 21.8x, and its FAIR Pro Score is 2.44, reflecting balanced fundamentals under Investing Pro’s framework.

Technical analysis provides additional support for the bull case: the company shows strong buy indicators on weekly and monthly charts. Operationally, Dollar General has extended its same-day delivery footprint to more than 17,000 stores and accelerated store remodel activities, moves that management and analysts point to as contributors to market share gains among cost-conscious shoppers.

In recent analyst actions, JPMorgan upgraded Dollar General to Overweight, citing its growth initiatives as a catalyst for the rating change.


Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) - Growth With Momentum

Five Below reported a one-year return of 96.0%, driven by strong growth expectations and momentum. The company holds the highest projected EPS growth in the group, with a forecasted increase of 38.7% for 2026. Analysts see 30.6% upside to consensus price targets, and Investing Pro assigns a GOOD Pro Score of 2.71, signaling solid financial footing.

Investors are paying a premium for the growth profile, however, with a forward P/E of 29.5x. Technical indicators for Five Below are bullish across major timeframes, supporting the narrative of ongoing momentum. The chain’s merchandising agility, emphasis on trending items and an aggressive store expansion strategy are cited as the operational drivers behind the company’s performance.

Five Below posted a healthy holiday period, with comparable sales up 14.5%. After those results, several firms, including UBS and Truist Securities, raised their price targets on the stock.


Dollarama (TSX:DOL) - Profitability Standout

Canadian retailer Dollarama is notable for its margin and return-on-equity metrics. The company posts a 26.5% EBITDA margin and an ROE of 148.9%, figures that underscore strong profitability compared with peers. Dollarama returned 33.1% over the past year and recently beat earnings expectations.

Valuation presents a counterpoint to the quality story: Investing Pro indicates a -16.9% fair value upside and assigns a forward P/E of 39.0x, which suggests much of the company’s strengths are already reflected in the share price. Despite that, analyst coverage remains constructive, with a mean price target of C$211.38 representing 8.3% upside from the prevailing level.

On the credit front, Moody’s Ratings moved Dollarama’s outlook to positive from stable, citing improvements in the company’s business profile and growth track record.


Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) - Mixed Signals

Dollar Tree has produced a one-year return of 57.5%, yet its near-term picture includes conflicting indicators. The stock shows modest fair value upside of 4.1% and projects EPS growth of 23.6% for 2026. Analyst target upside sits at 9.1%, and the forward P/E is a relatively moderate 19.6x. Investing Pro’s FAIR Pro Score for Dollar Tree is 2.17, which reflects adequate financial health but not standout metrics.

Technical signals, however, raise caution: most timeframes display strong sell indicators, suggesting downside technical pressure despite the company’s earnings prospects and recent gains. Operationally, Dollar Tree faces the dual task of executing its digital strategy while maintaining brand identity amid pricing adjustments.

In corporate developments, the company appointed Daniel Delrosario as Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Truist Securities also increased its price target and kept a Buy rating on the shares.


Takeaways

  • Dollar General leads on total return and shows reinforcing technical strength alongside an expanding same-day delivery footprint and store remodeling efforts.
  • Five Below represents the highest growth projection for 2026 within the group and retains bullish technical momentum following a strong holiday sales print.
  • Dollarama exhibits superior profitability metrics but faces valuation constraints that indicate limited upside per Investing Pro’s fair value assessment.
  • Dollar Tree delivers solid one-year returns but confronts negative technical signals and execution questions tied to its digital and pricing strategies.

Investors evaluating the dollar-store universe should weigh growth prospects, valuation stretch and technical condition when differentiating among these names, as each company’s mix of fundamentals and market signals leads to distinct risk-return profiles.

Risks

  • Valuation risk for Dollarama, where a 39.0x forward P/E and a -16.9% fair value upside indicate the stock’s quality may already be priced in - this impacts equity investors seeking further upside.
  • Technical downside for Dollar Tree, which shows strong sell signals across most timeframes despite positive earnings and moderate valuation, creating uncertainty around short-term share performance in equity markets.
  • Premium paid for growth in Five Below, reflected in a 29.5x forward P/E, which could pressure returns if projected EPS growth of 38.7% for 2026 fails to materialize - affecting growth-focused retail investors.

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