Stock Markets January 23, 2026

Citi Initiates Buy on e.l.f. Beauty Citing Robust Growth Prospects and Margin Expansion

The cosmetics firm’s acquisition of rhode brand and upcoming price hike support a positive outlook amidst recent stock price decline

By Sofia Navarro ELF
Citi Initiates Buy on e.l.f. Beauty Citing Robust Growth Prospects and Margin Expansion
ELF

Citigroup has started coverage of e.l.f. Beauty with a Buy recommendation, highlighting the company’s anticipated revenue growth exceeding industry peers and improvement in profit margins. Key drivers include market share gains for e.l.f.’s flagship brand, expanded distribution for the rhode brand acquisition, and expected pricing adjustments. Despite a recent share price drop, Citi considers the current valuation attractive.

Key Points

  • e.l.f. Beauty projected to achieve 16% compound annual revenue growth over three years, surpassing beauty sector peers.
  • Acquisition of rhode brand enhances market distribution and contributes to margin expansion due to higher gross and operating margins compared to e.l.f.'s core brand.
  • Price increases and improved supply-demand alignment expected to accelerate growth post-fiscal 2026, with organic double-digit sales growth anticipated by fiscal 2027.

Citigroup has launched coverage on e.l.f. Beauty, assigning a Buy rating, after assessing its ability to achieve growth rates above its beauty sector counterparts alongside a recovery in margins. The firm’s shares recently experienced a notable downturn, which Citi attributes largely to short-term factors.

Analysts forecast e.l.f. Beauty to attain a 16% compounded annual revenue growth over the next three years. This anticipated expansion surpasses growth rates of peer companies in the beauty industry. Key contributors to this outlook include continued market share increases for the primary e.l.f. brand and broader market penetration of the rhode brand, which e.l.f. recently acquired.

Citi anticipates acceleration in growth following the second half of fiscal year 2026. This rebound is expected to be supported by a planned 14% price increase scheduled for August 2025, better synchronization between product shipments and consumer demand, and enhanced retail presence focused on the rhode brand. By fiscal 2027, the bank projects that organic sales growth will comfortably return to double-digit figures.

In terms of profitability, Citi identifies potential for margin improvement within the next year. The firm notes that e.l.f. Beauty is overcoming the adverse effects of China tariffs, which it estimates imposed an annualized pressure of approximately 380 basis points on margins during fiscal 2026. Additionally, pricing actions combined with the incorporation of the rhode brand, which demonstrates a higher margin profile than e.l.f.’s core brand, are expected to underpin profit expansion.

Specifically, Citi reports that rhode maintains an approximate gross margin of 81%, compared to 71% for the main e.l.f. brand. Operating margins similarly favor rhode, at about 33.5%, relative to 18.5% for e.l.f. overall. The acquisition is estimated to contribute around 15% accretion to earnings per share.

The recent 35% share price decline following e.l.f. Beauty’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 results is viewed by Citi largely as a reaction to transient challenges, including inventory adjustments and the comparative basis of prior distribution expansion. Hence, Citi perceives the current market entry point as favorable.

The firm assigns a price target of $110 per share, based on an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of roughly 18 times fiscal 2027 estimates, or a price-to-earnings multiple close to 31 times for the same period. Citi underscores that e.l.f.’s valuation is reasonable in light of its superior growth prospects relative to household and personal care sector peers.

Risks

  • Continued impacts from tariff-related costs, estimated around 380 basis points, could affect margin recovery if geopolitical situations change.
  • Recent inventory destocking and challenges related to prior distribution expansion may lead to near-term earnings variability.
  • Dependence on successful execution of retail expansion and pricing strategies for the rhode brand carries execution risk.

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