Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) shares gained 3.4% on Wednesday following a shift in Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev’s stance on the cryptocurrency firm. Dolev raised his rating from Underperform to Neutral and set a price target of $77.00.
The analyst’s change of view follows his prior Underperform call issued on June 8, 2025, when Circle’s shares were trading at $207. At that time, Dolev had expressed concerns about what he described as meager USDC distribution, a backdrop of declining interest rates, and intense competition from Tether’s USDT.
In his updated assessment, Dolev identifies activity on prediction market Polymarket as a plausible catalyst for increased USDC demand. All bets on Polymarket are settled in USDC, and the platform has experienced significant growth in early 2026. Mizuho notes annualized volumes on Polymarket of roughly $50 billion, a figure the analyst states is more than three times the level seen in 2025.
Using that observed activity as a basis, Dolev estimates there could be approximately 25% potential upside to USDC’s market capitalization tied to current Polymarket volumes, with additional growth possible depending on the range of prediction events hosted on the platform. In response, Mizuho has lifted its 2026 and 2027 projections for USDC in circulation, while indicating those revisions still fall short of consensus forecasts.
Mizuho’s change positions the firm away from one of only three sell ratings that had been applied to Circle; most Wall Street analysts continue to carry a buy rating on the stock. The market’s immediate reaction was a modest share-price increase following the published upgrade.
Context and implications
The upgrade reflects a recalibration of Dolev’s outlook driven by observed transactional demand for USDC on a single platform, Polymarket, where settlement solely in USDC has coincided with a sharp uptick in volumes in early 2026. Mizuho’s revised USDC circulation forecasts for 2026/27 signal an improved near-term view from the analyst, even as those projections stay below broader market consensus.
Market positioning
Before the upgrade, Mizuho was among a small group of analysts maintaining a sell stance on Circle. The change to Neutral reduces the number of active sell recommendations but does not, according to Mizuho, align its forecasts fully with consensus expectations.
The full effect on Circle’s business from increased USDC usage on Polymarket will depend on whether the elevated volumes persist and translate into sustained growth in USDC in circulation.