Domestic travel in China recorded a 6.8% increase during the Qing Ming holiday spanning April 4 to 6, according to a Morgan Stanley report published Tuesday. Tourism revenue for the same period rose 6.6%, while average spending per passenger remained roughly flat compared with the prior year.
The investment bank said its channel checks and feedback from companies point to slower consumption in March across multiple categories, suggesting that outside of holiday periods consumers were exercising more caution and saving more. Morgan Stanley noted that while trends appear to be stabilizing, a broad-based recovery will take time and is expected to be uneven through 2026.
Cross-border travel outpaced domestic movement, with the average daily number of inbound and outbound travelers climbing 9.1% year-over-year over the holiday. Among key enterprise-level metrics, retail and catering sales rose 2.4% on a daily basis compared with last year.
Not all consumer-facing segments fared well. Box office revenue declined 19% year-over-year during the holiday window, highlighting a notable weakness in entertainment spending relative to other categories.
Hainan duty free shopping emerged as a bright spot. Morgan Stanley reported average daily offline sales there increased 15%, the count of shoppers grew 20%, and the number of items purchased rose 10% versus the previous year. These gains underline stronger performance in duty free retail compared with broader retail and entertainment measures during the period.
For firms and sectors that track passenger volumes and spending - including transport operators, retail and catering businesses, duty free operators, and entertainment exhibitors - the mixed results signal ongoing fragility outside peak travel days. The stable per-passenger spending metric suggests that while travelers continued to make trips, they did not materially increase discretionary expenditure per visit during the holiday.
Morgan Stanley explicitly cautioned that a full, broad-based rebound remains a longer-term prospect. The firm expects recovery patterns to be uneven over the course of 2026, reflecting the observed deceleration in consumption during non-holiday periods and the patchwork performance across travel, retail, and entertainment segments.
Data points cited in the report:
- Domestic travel: +6.8% (Qing Ming holiday, April 4-6)
- Tourism revenue: +6.6% (same period)
- Per-passenger spending: flat year-over-year
- Cross-border average daily travelers: +9.1% year-over-year
- Retail and catering sales of key enterprises: +2.4% daily versus last year
- Box office revenue: -19% year-over-year during the holiday
- Hainan duty free offline: average daily sales +15%, shopper count +20%, items purchased +10% year-over-year