Cboe Global Markets is in preliminary discussions about creating a regulated product that leverages an options framework to deliver all-or-none payouts, according to people briefed on the matter. The proposed structure would function like a binary option: it pays a set return if a stated condition is met at expiration and pays out nothing if the condition is not fulfilled.
Under the concept, the contract would use standard options mechanics but result in a binary-style payoff profile. That simplicity is expected to make the product accessible to retail participants who may find conventional options strategies complex. Industry observers say the straightforward payoff - a single fixed payout or zero - is likely to attract less experienced investors who prefer clear outcomes.
Supporters of prediction-style trading have argued that markets that let participants place bets on real-world events are expanding into a wide range of topics, from sporting outcomes and entertainment releases to elections and economic data. The interest in such markets has accelerated since the most recent U.S. presidential election cycle, and a number of firms have moved into the sector as the concept gains traction among investors looking for new revenue channels and data signals.
Executives at the exchange have signaled an intent to focus more on event-driven and prediction products, as well as digital and crypto markets. Company leadership has described strong growth potential in those areas, and the contemplated all-or-none options would be consistent with that strategic emphasis.
Startups in the prediction market space have expanded rapidly in recent months, and other industry players have introduced competing offerings. In December, a major derivatives operator teamed up with a sports betting company to launch a prediction markets platform in five U.S. states. That initiative underscores the broader industry movement toward event-linked trading products.
The exchange has explored binary-style contracts in the past. In 2008, the largest U.S. options venue offered binary options tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the CBOE Volatility Index, demonstrating prior experience with similar outcome-based instruments.
Market participants and analysts say a regulated, option-based all-or-none contract could provide retail traders with a simpler, regulated route into event-driven wagers. At the same time, details around structure, regulatory approval, and timing remain in flux as the exchange continues early-stage evaluation.
Quote
"This product would be particularly attractive for retail users due to its simplicity," said Nic Puckrin, analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau. "Although retail participation in derivatives markets has grown substantially over the years, a binary, all-or-nothing options product would certainly appeal to less experienced investors."