BTIG analyst Janine Stichter has named Steve Madden (SHOO) as her SMID Cap Top Pick in the footwear space, reaffirming a Buy rating and setting a $50 price target. The analyst's assessment is based on meetings held during FFANY Market Week with Steve Madden executives and a review of the company's product assortment.
Stichter met with CEO Ed Rosenfeld, CFO Zine Mazouzi and VP of Corporate Development and IR Danielle McCoy, and conducted a product walkthrough with EVP of Brand Development Lauren Wilner. Based on those discussions and the product review, Stichter points to a combination of fashion momentum and disciplined execution underpinning the company's recent performance.
Management told the analyst they are seeing a structural shift back toward fashion footwear and away from sneakers, a trend they expect to play out over multiple years. The company said these fashion tailwinds, together with its execution, have supported market share gains. Wholesale channels are showing robust sell-throughs, and the company reported that fall order books are running higher year-over-year.
While management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainty, they noted differences across channels. Some retail partners have signaled softer trends over the past month, attributing that weakness in part to higher gas prices. In contrast, Steve Madden has not observed a corresponding impact in its direct-to-consumer channels.
On private label, management described recent conversations with partners as more constructive, but indicated that recovery in private-label business remains a 2027 story. The company expects the off-price channel to expand this year, yet still to remain below 2024 levels.
Stichter also highlighted the continued strength at Kurt Geiger, saying management believes mid-teens percentage pro forma revenue growth is achievable this year for the branded business. Kurt Geiger is expanding its presence into Macy's and select Belk locations, and management cited progress in the handbag category where a differentiated, colorful product offering is helping share gains.
The $50 price target reflects Stichter's valuation approach, which applies approximately a 19 times price-to-earnings multiple and a 14 times enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple to calendar year 2027 estimates. Those multiples equate to a premium relative to the company's historical averages and peer group.
On the results front, Steve Madden reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $653.1 million, a performance that exceeded analyst expectations. Following that release, Williams Trading and Needham raised their price targets on the company, while UBS reiterated its Neutral rating.
Stichter's recommendation is grounded in direct engagement with company leadership and product evaluation, with emphasis on branded footwear momentum across wholesale and direct channels, measured expectations for private-label recovery, and a valuation that assumes continued improvement through 2027.
Context and next steps
Investors and market participants will likely watch upcoming seasonal sell-through data, private-label negotiation developments, and the company's channel-level performance to assess whether current momentum persists amid uneven macro cues cited by some retail partners.