Bank of America has identified two European steel companies that it considers to be relatively well positioned amid cyclical industry headwinds: ArcelorMittal (MT) and Voestalpine (VOE). The bank's analysis focuses on near-term EBITDA expectations and the drivers most likely to influence quarterly outcomes, including contract mix, lagged pricing effects and seasonal patterns.
ArcelorMittal (MT)
BofA views ArcelorMittal's fourth-quarter EBITDA outlook as broadly reasonable, though it warns of a slight downside risk. The bank quantifies that potential downside at roughly 2% versus consensus, contingent on the company's product mix and the degree to which realized prices track expectations.
Within Europe, BofA expects a small decline in spreads that could be offset by quarter-over-quarter volume growth, a combination that may leave earnings flat or slightly lower sequentially depending on contract mix, pricing lags and seasonal dynamics. In the NAFTA region, consensus EBITDA projections imply a more marked swing - an estimated 18% quarter-over-quarter decline - a move the bank attributes to pricing pressures priced into expectations.
For ArcelorMittal's Brazil operations, BofA anticipates a seasonal quarter, with analyst consensus already reflecting about a 4% quarter-over-quarter EBITDA decline. Separately, the bank highlights Mexico as a notable source of uncertainty: operational interruptions there were estimated to have reduced third-quarter results by about $90 million, and further disruptions remain a key variable for future quarters.
Voestalpine (VOE)
BofA regards Voestalpine's third-quarter EBITDA consensus as fair to conservative, with a potential for roughly 1% upside relative to that consensus depending on the Steel Division's product mix and seasonal influences. The Steel Division - which carries the most exposure to commodity price swings - is expected to see a marginal decline in EBITDA per ton as a result of weaker lagged prices.
Despite these headwinds, BofA judges Voestalpine to be on course to deliver around the midpoint of its fiscal 2026 EBITDA guidance range of EUR 1.45-1.55 billion. The bank emphasizes that realized prices will be a central determinant of the quarter's outcome, given Voestalpine's varied contract terms and timing lags across its project and special steel businesses.
Bottom line - BofA's view highlights both names as selective opportunities within the European steel complex, while underscoring how mix, pricing realization and seasonality will drive near-term earnings variability.