The food retail and distribution segment faces a patchwork of demand and operational pressures as BMO Capital Markets reworked near-term projections for several industry players. The firm’s latest notes spotlight nuanced changes to case-growth assumptions, modest adjustments to quarterly and full-year earnings or EBITDA forecasts, and company-level developments that could influence momentum into 2026.
Sysco Corporation
BMO trimmed its local-case forecast for Sysco, lowering USFS local cases to 0.5% from 1.0%. That revised figure sits below the company guidance that had implied case growth exceeding 0.8%. For CMU cases, BMO reduced its outlook by 1 percentage point to flat, while noting that recently acquired businesses should provide some offset to softer organic volumes. Analysts expect local case growth to be flat in December, with an acceleration anticipated in F3Q26 driven by 150 basis points of easier year-over-year comparisons.
On the profitability side, BMO cut its F2Q26 EPS estimate to $0.95 from $0.98, placing the projection slightly beneath Sysco’s own guidance range of $0.97 to $0.99. The full-year FY26 EPS projection was nudged to $4.53 from $4.55, which remains within the company guidance range of $4.50 to $4.60.
US Foods
BMO pared local growth expectations for US Foods to 3.2% from 3.5% and trimmed forecasts for the All Other category by 50 basis points. These revisions accompany company developments including the termination of the Performance Food Group clean room agreement. Management also described choppy results tied to the government shutdown, which affected military and government sales that comprise about 8% of total revenue.
Despite the lower volume assumptions, BMO left its 2026 EBITDA forecast unchanged, modeling 10% growth and citing confidence that margin levers can mitigate the shortfall in near-term case growth. The firm also flagged US Foods’ move to 100% variable compensation as a strategic change that could support stronger local case growth over time.
Performance Food Group
For Performance Food Group, BMO reduced its local growth forecast to 5.2% from 5.5%. The firm maintained a conservative chain-case assumption of plus 3% and indicated no material adjustment was required for government exposure. While improving convenience-store trends could offer upside, BMO retained a -2% estimate for c-store cases.
Second-quarter EBITDA was revised modestly to $460 million from $465 million, still inside the company guidance range of $450 million to $470 million. Full-year FY26 EBITDA growth remains modeled at 11%, which falls within Management’s 8% to 13% guidance range. BMO also recorded the announced leadership transition at the company, with Scott McPherson set to assume the CEO role on January 1, 2026.
The Chefs’ Warehouse
BMO upheld its organic growth outlook for The Chefs’ Warehouse at 6%, keeping inflationary assumptions steady at 3%. The company presented its 2026 guidance at the ICR Conference on January 12, outlining expected year-over-year growth of 9% to 13%, a range that BMO noted aligns with market expectations.
Across the group, BMO’s updates reflect a combination of softer case-volume assumptions in certain channels, offsetting factors such as acquisitions and margin management, and company-specific operational changes. The firm’s revisions are measured and, in most cases, keep projections within the respective companies’ disclosed guidance bands.