Bernstein analysts reported that aggregate U.S. beer market volumes decreased 5.3% on a 12-week trailing basis. The research note highlights that the decline began after a gas price increase and that the recent two-week results show the weakness has been steady rather than sharply accelerating or reversing.
On shorter rolling measures the contraction deepened: a two-week trailing metric showed a 6.9% drop, while a four-week trailing measure registered a 7.2% decline. Bernstein characterized the trend as broad-based across brewers rather than concentrated in a single company or brand family.
Constellation Brands was an exception on share dynamics, recording a year-over-year market share gain of 50 basis points on a 12-week trailing basis. Despite the share gain, the companys volumes were down 2.3% on the same 12-week trailing basis, a smaller fall than the overall market. Looking at more recent four-week comparisons, Modelo Especial volumes were down 6.5% year-over-year, Corona Extra fell 8.2% year-over-year, and Pacifico grew 10.4% year-over-year. Bernstein reported Constellation Brands market share at 17.8%.
Anheuser-Busch InBev experienced a 4.2% decline in volumes on a 12-week trailing basis. Within shorter-term four-week year-over-year comparisons, Michelob Ultra increased 0.9%, Busch Light decreased 0.9%, Bud Light fell 12.5%, Budweiser dropped 9.5%, Busch declined 12.8% and Natural Light fell 8.6%.
Molson Coors reported a 7.5% year-over-year reduction in volumes on a 12-week trailing basis. In four-week year-over-year detail, Coors Light was down 8.5%, Miller Lite declined 9.5%, Keystone Light fell 2.7% and Blue Moon dropped 11.9%. Coors Banquet was one positive outlier, with 1.4% growth on a four-week year-over-year basis.
Boston Beer Company saw a 13.7% year-over-year decline in volumes on a 12-week trailing basis. The company's four-week year-over-year volumes declined 16.8%.
Heineken volumes declined 11.1% year-over-year on a 12-week trailing basis; on a four-week basis the companys volumes were down 12.5% year-over-year. Diageo posted a 1.7% volume decline on a 12-week trailing basis, a performance Bernstein noted as 360 basis points better than the market aggregate.
Overall, Bernsteins data portray a U.S. beer market experiencing multi-week softness with a consistent pattern of declines across most major producers, while a small number of brands and one company by share have shown relative resilience.
Market context and implications
- Measured on multiple trailing horizons, U.S. beer volumes have contracted, with the two- and four-week trailing figures showing larger declines than the 12-week metric.
- Declines began after a rise in gasoline prices and have remained broadly stable through the latest two-week period assessed by Bernstein.
- Among major brewers, Constellation Brands gained share despite lower volumes, while others experienced steeper volume contractions over the same trailing periods.