Analysts at Bernstein moved to defend Uber following a recent decline in the company's share price, arguing in a client note that the market has already baked in considerable autonomous vehicle risk. The team, led by Nikhil Devnani, emphasized that valuation by itself is not a catalyst in this sector and that concerns around AV adoption have been a key driver of the stock's fall.
Devnani presented an illustrative discounted cash flow (DCF) exercise that models an extreme outcome: complete disruption of the U.S. Mobility business by AVs over a 15-year period. Even under that severe scenario, the DCF implies a stock in the $65-70 range, while the shares recently traded at around $80.
Bernstein highlighted several structural elements that support Uber's valuation. Devnani pointed to roughly 35% core EPS growth potential and calculated that Uber's 2027 PEG ratio would be about 0.5x under those growth assumptions. The firm also ran a sum-of-the-parts exercise that values U.S. Mobility at 10-12x EV/NTM EBITDA, applies a mid-teens EBITDA multiple to International Mobility, and assigns incremental value to the Delivery and Freight segments.
In the DCF scenario, Bernstein assumed the U.S. Mobility segment begins to decline in 2030 and faces margin compression prior to an eventual wind-down. The note stresses that growth in international markets along with continued expansion of Delivery help offset the hypothetical losses in the domestic mobility business.
Devnani characterized the implied downside in the severe disruption case as relatively contained, noting it is only 15-20% lower than current levels even with the adverse assumptions applied. Based on this analysis, Bernstein retained an Outperform rating and kept a $115 price target on the shares, asserting that much of the AV-related risk appears to be priced into the stock and that international mobility and Delivery expansion provide a buffer against disruption.
Context and implications
The note frames the debate around Uber as one of risk timing and segment diversification: while AV adoption poses substantial upside or downside for ride-hailing economics, Bernstein's segmentation and DCF work suggest that other growth engines can materially mitigate U.S. Mobility weakness.