Bernstein adjusted its view of major European airlines on Monday after analysts said a roughly $200/MT rise in the European jet fuel forward curve - driven by the Iran conflict - has materially altered the sector's earnings outlook.
In its note, the firm upgraded Ryanair to "outperform" and lowered easyJet and Wizz Air to "market-perform." The research cited a double impact: higher spot jet fuel levels and a meaningful lift in the forward curve, which it quantified as c. $200/MT - approximately a 30% increase versus pre-war levels.
As of 06:38 ET (10:38 GMT), market levels showed Ryanair trading at c25.41, translating to an implied upside of about 26% against Bernstein's c32 target and underlining the carrier's relative resilience on share-price weakness. easyJet at 370.9p implied roughly 14.6% upside to its reduced 425p target but was described as structurally constrained. Wizz Air at 931.5p showed around 39.7% upside to a £13 target, a prospective gain the analysts cautioned is offset by significantly weaker fundamentals and elevated risk.
Bernstein's note flagged near-term dynamics in fuel markets: jet fuel spot prices have nearly doubled this year and the crack spread has widened from about $25 to above $100 per barrel. The September 2026 forward sits roughly $500/MT higher than a year ago. The research also pointed to Brent trading in the $95-100 per barrel range since the conflict began. The analysts said the situation stems from an incident that targeted Iran - a country they noted accounts for roughly 5% of global oil production - and the related closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which channels about 20% of global oil trade flows.
Ryanair's upgrade rested on a set of balance-sheet and operating considerations. Bernstein highlighted a net cash position above c1 billion, 80% fuel hedge coverage for FY27 and mid-teens EBIT margins - the strongest among European point-to-point carriers, in its view. The firm also raised its EV/EBIT valuation multiple to 10.9x for FY29 and increased the target price by 14% despite cutting EPS forecasts by 20% for FY27 and 16% for FY28.
By contrast, Wizz Air suffered the largest forecast downgrades. Bernstein projected net losses through FY28 and slashed EPS estimates by 181% for FY27 and by 123% for FY28. The firm's model showed net debt/EBITDA at 4.3x at the close of FY25, improving to 3.7x by March 2026 before rising again in FY27. The analysts additionally noted operational headwinds from Pratt & Whitney GTF groundings that affected about 20% of Wizz Air's fleet in FY25, which compounded the pressure from higher fuel costs. Wizz Air's target price was reduced by 48%.
easyJet also faced material earnings downgrades. Bernstein reduced its FY26 underlying EBIT estimate by 54.2% to
Fuel expense expectations also shifted markedly: Bernstein forecast easyJet's fuel bill at
Bernstein left IAG at "outperform" with a revised
The note also reiterated "market-perform" ratings on Air France-KLM and Lufthansa. Bernstein's latest actions follow prior ratings changes: Ryanair carried a "market-perform" rating from November 2025 with a $67 target; easyJet was upgraded to "outperform" in November 2025 at 510p; and Wizz Air held an "outperform" rating at