Bernstein's analysis of South Korean export figures shows a notable lift in Samsung Electronics' HBM shipments in May, centered on the company's packaging hub in South Chungcheong Province. According to the data, Samsung's HBM exports from that province rose 79% month-over-month in May and were 55% higher compared with February.
Those gains contributed to an all-time monthly peak for HBM exports in May. Overall HBM shipments increased 13% from April and were 15% higher versus February, according to Bernstein's compilation of the export data.
Using a regression model built on the export series, Bernstein forecasts that Samsung's HBM revenue for the second quarter of 2026 will increase 58% quarter-over-quarter. The firm cautions, however, that this modeled outcome still lags Bernstein's internal estimate for Samsung, a shortfall the firm attributes in part to delays tied to a project described as Rubin.
By contrast, SK hynix's export performance showed softness in the same period. Shipments originating from North Chungcheong and from Icheon decreased 9% from April and were down 3% compared with February. Bernstein's model nonetheless anticipates SK hynix's HBM revenue for the second quarter of 2026 will be up 25% quarter-over-quarter, a pace noted as slightly below Bernstein's prior forecast for the company.
Bernstein also tracks a "value per weight" metric as a directional indicator of HBM pricing. In May, Samsung's value-per-weight rose 30%, while SK hynix's metric remained largely unchanged. The firm interprets the divergence as consistent with Samsung beginning to ramp HBM4 output rather than signaling a broad-based uptick in HBM pricing across the industry.
The export figures and value-per-weight trends point to stability in HBM pricing even as conventional memory segments experienced price volatility. Conventional memory prices reportedly surged during the period, yet HBM value per weight stayed within its prior range overall, a pattern Bernstein highlights as particularly evident for SK hynix.
Sectors and market areas affected: semiconductor memory manufacturing, export logistics and revenue profiles for HBM suppliers.