Bernstein has increased its price target for Infineon Technologies AG to €102 from €74, arguing the German chipmaker stands to gain from accelerating demand for power semiconductors tied to artificial intelligence data centers. The announcement coincided with a roughly 5% rise in the stock on Monday.
The investment firm reiterated an "outperform" rating and raised the target multiple to 30x from 25x - a move the analyst team said was prompted "on the back of pricing momentum." Bernstein framed Infineon as "a key beneficiary of power semis, given its high exposure (power is >50% of its revenue) and strong market leadership."
Bernstein quantified Infineon’s market positions across several power segments, assigning the company about a 15% share in power discrete, more than 40% in AI power semiconductors, and 24% in automotive power. The broker also said total AI exposure for Infineon, when combining GPU and CPU server revenue, would reach 13% in 2026 - a figure the analysts described as "a lot higher than investors’ perception" - and expand to 22% by 2028.
On profitability, Bernstein raised its adjusted diluted earnings per share forecasts and now expects earnings to grow at a "42% CAGR25-28." The firm projects adjusted diluted EPS of €1.74 for 2026 and €2.94 for 2027, versus prior estimates of €1.72 and €2.63 respectively.
Revenue expectations were also nudged upward: Bernstein lifted its FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates by 3.4% and 7.1% respectively, while FY26 estimates saw only a modest upward revision "due to the limited impact of price hikes during the current fiscal year." The broker said most of the upside in its outlook is "driven by higher power pricing," which it expects to benefit Infineon’s automotive, green industrial power, and power and sensor systems divisions.
Focusing on data-center exposure, Bernstein anticipates Infineon’s CPU data-center revenue will grow at a 30% compound annual rate over the next three years, reaching €1.1 billion in FY2028. The analysts noted Infineon already has "€500mn revenue exposure this year" tied to CPU data-center power.
Margin expansion is a central plank of Bernstein’s thesis. The analysts expect Infineon’s segment margin to climb from 17.5% in FY25 to slightly below 30% in FY28, a shift they attribute to an improving product mix as AI-related sales rise and capacity migrates from low-end automotive IGBT to AI power products.
Capacity outlook reinforced the growth story: Bernstein said Infineon stands out with 850K WpM of capacity in 2025 - more than double that of Silan, the second-ranked player. The report adds that Infineon is expected to grow capacity at a 10% CAGR over the next two years, surpassing 1M WpM in 2027, while overall power capacity is forecast to grow only 6%.
The firm also flagged an operational catalyst: Infineon’s Smart Power Fab in Dresden is scheduled to open on 2 July 2026. In addition, Infineon has pulled forward €500 million of capital expenditure, boosting total FY26 investment to €2.7 billion, according to Bernstein.
Bernstein laid out potential downside scenarios as well. The analysts listed risks including slower automotive demand or EV penetration, a delay in the expected recovery, price erosion or an oversupply of SiC solutions, broader weakness in semiconductor demand, and compression of valuation multiples.
Taken together, Bernstein’s revisions reflect a view that stronger pricing in power semiconductors, expanding AI revenue exposure, and planned capacity increases should drive meaningful revenue and margin gains for Infineon over the coming years, while several industry and demand-side risks could temper that upside.