Bank of America reports that, even after a major LNG supply disruption from the Middle East earlier this year, global gas prices are trading well below 2022 peaks and have underperformed Brent crude. The bank highlights a number of structural and seasonal factors that have reshaped short-term flows and regional balances.
Floating storage and longer voyages
Shipments of LNG currently on the water have climbed to levels normally seen before the northern hemisphere winter, when demand is high and operators use LNG carriers as floating storage. Bank of America attributes this unusual seasonal rise in vessels at sea to cargos offloaded onto stranded ships within the Persian Gulf, as well as extended shipping routes from the United States to Asian buyers.
Regional flow patterns and policy-relevant chokepoints
Some Gulf customers remain linked to Qatar-sourced LNG because cargos have stayed within the Persian Gulf. Kuwait, for example, continues to receive Qatar-supplied cargos. Oman’s exports have not been disrupted, the bank notes, because the country lies outside the Strait that has constrained other flows.
At the same time, fresh output from North America and Canada over the past year has played a significant role in dampening the loss of Middle East LNG, offsetting nearly half of the forgone supply in recent months, according to Bank of America.
Asia’s shifting import behaviour
Across Asia, LNG imports have fallen to seasonal lows in recent months. India has reportedly replaced most of the LNG volumes it lost, while other customers that relied on Qatari supply have sought alternatives, shifted to different fuels such as coal, or lowered their demand. China has reduced LNG purchases as part of its response to the loss of Qatar output following a US double blockade imposed on April 13, 2026, the bank says.
Coal, temperatures and production risks
Bank of America notes a rally in coal prices as utilities and industrial consumers pivot away from LNG. Higher-than-usual temperatures have exacerbated tight market conditions. Meanwhile, China is pressing ahead with plans to limit coal overcapacity, and a fatal incident at the Liushenyu mine is likely to curb production activity, further complicating coal supply dynamics.
Europe’s buffer and price outlook
Robust solar generation has helped European markets absorb some of the price impact stemming from the Qatar LNG disruption. Nevertheless, European gas inventories sit about 9% below 2022 levels and roughly 15% under the five-year average, a shortfall the bank traces to weak summer-to-date injections.
Bank of America maintains a fourth-quarter 2026 TTF price forecast of 80/MWh. In response to low stock levels, the Netherlands recently announced nearly 1 billion in subsidies aimed at replenishing the country’s depleted gas inventories.
Note: This article presents Bank of Americas assessment of current LNG flows, regional import behaviour, and the banks price outlook; it reflects the information and estimates provided by the bank.