Avio SpA said on Friday it has revised upward several elements of its full-year 2025 outlook following a strong commercial performance in the fourth quarter and faster execution of contracts than previously anticipated.
The Italian space propulsion group now expects its order backlog to be between €2.1 billion and €2.2 billion, an increase from the prior forecast of €1.7 billion to €1.8 billion. At the same time, management raised its group revenue projection to a range of €510 million to €540 million, up from the previous guidance of €450 million to €480 million.
The company also reported that its net cash position is nearing €600 million, a development the company attributes to vigorous order activity. That cash position represents a favorable surprise relative to analyst expectations, which had been approximately €524 million.
Other elements of Avio's 2025 guidance were left unchanged. Reported EBITDA remains guided to €27 million-€33 million, adjusted EBITDA to €30 million-€36 million, and net income to €7 million-€10 million.
Management characterized the updated top-line outlook and stronger balance-sheet metrics as indicators that Avio is entering a growth phase across its space and defense propulsion businesses. Despite the higher revenue range, the company did not modify profit and EBITDA targets.
Two potential explanations were offered within the company's commentary for why earnings guidance was not raised along with revenue. First, some long-term contracts underpinning the higher revenue outlook may carry contingencies that result in low margin recognition in the early phases of contract execution. Second, upfront costs related to the firm's planned expansion in the United States could be realized earlier in 2025, which would weigh on margins and near-term earnings.
Investors and market watchers will likely monitor how order execution profiles, margin recognition on long-term contracts, and the timing of expansion-related expenditures play out through the year to assess whether the upgraded backlog and revenue will translate into higher profitability in subsequent periods.
Contextual note: The company attributed the guidance changes to the combination of fourth-quarter commercial momentum and faster-than-expected contract delivery. The firm retained its existing ranges for reported and adjusted EBITDA as well as net income.