Bank of America’s thematic outlook for 2026 places agentic AI - AI tools capable of planning and completing trips end to end - at the head of a five-point list shaping the online travel agency (OTA) landscape. The bank warns that such capabilities could gradually supplant the conventional search-and-click model that many consumers currently use to plan travel.
BofA expects both large technology platforms and incumbent OTAs to introduce AI booking features during 2026, a shift that raises the prospect of disintermediation for sites that rely solely on traditional traffic acquisition. To defend direct customer relationships, the bank says OTAs will need to lean on proprietary supply agreements, loyalty initiatives, and established brand strength as competition moves toward what BofA describes as "Search 2.0."
On the cyclical front, BofA sees an easier U.S. travel demand backdrop in the first half of 2026. The bank expects bookings to benefit from easier year-over-year comparisons after muted demand in early 2025. In addition, BofA estimates the FIFA World Cup will contribute roughly 1 percent to full-year bookings, with that uplift concentrated mainly in lodging within host cities.
However, the bank cautions that tariffs and visa policy changes could disrupt this outlook, introducing uncertainty to international travel flows and booking patterns.
Competition across platforms is forecast to intensify as major players broaden the scope of their offerings. BofA notes that Booking, Expedia, and Airbnb are each expanding into a wider set of services including accommodations, experiences, loyalty, and AI-driven personalization. The bank expects Airbnb to add more hotel inventory and considers the potential for a loyalty program to appear from the company in 2026. Meanwhile, Booking is described as continuing to build out a connected trip offering.
B2B travel is identified as a growth area. BofA reports that B2B bookings are expanding more quickly than consumer bookings, driven by OTA investment in partner distribution, connectivity tools, and APIs. Expedia’s Rapid API platform is cited as scaling globally, while Booking is reportedly consolidating and enlarging its B2B teams to deepen partner distribution and reach.
Marketing and distribution dynamics round out the bank’s five themes. BofA sees a favorable marketing spend environment as OTAs shift budgets toward merchandising and social channels and employ performance tools to raise returns on spend. The bank anticipates continued marketing leverage at Booking, efficiency gains at Expedia under new management, and broadly stable sales and marketing margins at Airbnb.
Reflecting these dynamics, BofA maintained Buy ratings on Booking and Expedia and assigned a Neutral rating to Airbnb. The bank cited progress on AI initiatives, potential margin improvement, and varying exposures to the changing competitive landscape as factors behind its ratings.