Aena recorded a 3.9% year-over-year increase in passenger traffic in March, according to Jefferies equity research published Monday. That pace marked an acceleration from February, when passenger volumes rose 2.8%, and outstripped the 3.1% expansion in capacity for the month.
Jefferies analysts noted the March result was aided by an earlier Easter holiday this year, which shifted travel patterns and boosted demand. The firm also highlighted that capacity is tracking 5.4% higher year-over-year in April.
The research team - Graham Hunt, Glynis Johnson and Priyal Woolf - left their recommendation on Aena unchanged at Buy. In their view, the company may see upside to expectations for return on capital employed across the next DORA regulatory period, a factor that underpins their maintained stance.
Jefferies' report emphasized Aena's favourable positioning as passenger flows gravitate toward Spain. The analysts trimmed their traffic growth projection for 2026 to 3.0% as part of the update.
Looking ahead, Jefferies identified two near-term catalysts for investors to monitor: the CNMC's report on Aena's DORA proposal, expected before summer, and the company's first-quarter results scheduled for release on April 29. The research note frames these events as potential drivers of fresh information on traffic trends and regulatory outcomes.
This update from Jefferies provides a snapshot of operational momentum and the regulatory context shaping investor expectations. While March's stronger passenger numbers reflect a positive short-term trajectory - in part due to calendar timing - the coming CNMC assessment and the April results are highlighted as the next formal checkpoints for assessing Aena's outlook under evolving regulatory scrutiny.