Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) issued a downward-leaning profit outlook for the coming year on Tuesday, attributing the shortfall to a continued postponement of U.S. biofuel policy decisions and persistently flat crush margins. The announcement came alongside results showing a sizable quarterly decline in operating profit from its largest business unit and prompted a 4.6% fall in the company's shares in premarket trading.
Management pointed to the deferral of the U.S. renewable fuel blending rule as a central factor. The policy, originally expected in late October 2025, is now slated for finalization by early March, with the administration keeping quotas near its initial proposal while abandoning a previously considered penalty for imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks. The delay has had a tangible impact on planning and commercial activity: firms report holding off on transactions and postponing capital and spending choices that shape future output and margins.
The interruption to policy clarity has reduced demand for certain feedstocks. ADM said slower renewable fuel blending requirements diminished the use of soybean oil produced at its processing plants, a factor that contributed to weaker results in the oilseed side of the business.
For the reported quarter, operating profit from the agricultural services and oilseed segment fell 31% to $444 million. Against that backdrop, ADM provided a 2026 adjusted earnings per share range of $3.60 to $4.25. The midpoint of that guidance sits below analysts' average estimate of $4.24 per share, based on LSEG data.
The company highlighted that the policy delay and flat crush margins are weighing on near-term profitability and investment timing. Because of the uncertainty around blending quotas and related requirements, decisions that would normally influence throughput, feedstock procurement and processing economics are being deferred.
Investors reacted swiftly to the updated outlook and quarterly performance, driving the premarket drop in ADM shares. The guidance and the quarter's segment results underscore how regulatory timing around renewable fuels can ripple through agribusiness and oilseed processors, affecting both commodity flows and corporate earnings.
Bottom line: ADM is warning of weaker adjusted profit for the current year due to a delayed U.S. biofuel policy and soft crush margins, alongside a substantial decline in operating profit in its largest segment. The company's 2026 earnings guidance is below the consensus level, and the market responded with an immediate share-price decline.