The fatal shooting of two protesters during President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown in Minneapolis has injected immigration into the center of a special congressional primary in New Jersey, transforming what might have been a routine contest into a focal point for national debates over enforcement and oversight.
Democrats are widely expected to hold the seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill, who left the U.S. House to become governor. Yet the primary election this Thursday matters less for control of the seat than as an early test of which policy positions and campaign themes will gain traction with voters before the November midterms - when control of the Republican-led House of Representatives and the Senate will be contested.
Eleven Democrats are competing in the crowded field to succeed Sherrill. A cluster of establishment candidates leads most public attention: Tahesha Way, the state’s former lieutenant governor and secretary of state; Brendan Gill, an Essex County Commissioner backed by the state party apparatus; and Tom Malinowski, a former U.S. representative with a platform centered on human rights. They face a strong progressive challenge from Analilia Mejia, an organizer who served as national political director for Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign and who is campaigning as an outsider.
Immigration proposals being debated in the race span from relatively mainstream reforms - such as banning federal immigration agents from wearing masks and requiring them to show identification - to far-reaching calls including impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and the outright abolition of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
"ICE is dominating the conversation," said Brendan Gill, whose campaign is supported by former Governor Phil Murphy. Gill added that he is hearing concerns about immigration enforcement from voters daily.
Analilia Mejia, backed by endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has called for abolishing ICE, describing the agency as "an unchecked police force that is sadly too corrupted to remain." Tahesha Way has also said she supports abolishing ICE, and framed the agency as a "militia-style operation" that should not receive further appropriations. "We must defund and dismantle the tactics that have led to death and chaos in the streets. We need to eliminate it and build a system of immigration enforcement that protects and does not harm our communities," Way said.
The intensity of the immigration argument is reflected in campaign fundraising and outside spending. Most of the leading candidates have raised in excess of $400,000, while Malinowski leads fundraising with nearly $1.2 million in the bank. At the same time, a pro-Israel super PAC has spent $2.3 million aimed at undermining Malinowski’s bid, including an advertisement that accuses him of voting "with Trump to increase funding" for ICE.
Malinowski has pushed back against those attack ads, saying he is hearing from voters who are angered by the volume and tone of the outside spending. "If what they’re doing works here, they’re going to run the same play in multiple Democratic primaries across the country, so we’ve got to stop it here," he said.
Other contenders in the field include Cammie Croft, a former White House aide in the Obama administration; Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; Morris Township Deputy Mayor Jeff Grayzel; and Army veteran Zach Beecher. The variety of backgrounds among candidates highlights a wide range of political styles and policy priorities under debate.
Local enforcement actions have intensified the political salience of immigration in the district. In the vacant New Jersey district, for example, a 17-year-old high school student was detained by ICE while doing laundry last month and was released a few days later. Brendan Gill pointed to that incident as emblematic of the type of fear felt by residents amid heightened enforcement activities.
Immigration has also become a heated issue elsewhere, signaling a broader nationalization of the debate. In Illinois, Representative Robin Kelly filed a resolution to impeach Secretary Noem while she competes in a three-way Senate primary. In Michigan, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed has criticized two Democratic opponents for not endorsing his call to abolish ICE. In Maine, a dispute between Governor Janet Mills and oysterman Graham Platner has centered on ICE’s presence in the state. Those episodes underscore that the negotiations over enforcement and reform are occurring on multiple fronts and in diverse political contexts.
For candidates like Mejia, the moment requires a different approach to leadership rooted in organizing rather than conventional political skills. "I think my opponents are all incredibly talented politicians, but I think about how John Lewis or Barack Obama as organizers came in with a different skill set and were able to engage people in a more substantive and impactful way," she said. "And I think that’s what we need. I think that’s what this moment calls for."
As the primary approaches, the contest in New Jersey will function as an early signal for how immigration messaging plays with Democratic voters in a district that is likely to remain under their control. The prominence of the issue, combined with heavy fundraising and substantial outside expenditures, has elevated the race beyond local politics and made it a focal point for discussions about enforcement, oversight, and the boundaries of federal immigration agencies.
Summary
The shooting linked to President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown in Minneapolis has put immigration at the center of a special New Jersey Democratic primary to replace Mikie Sherrill. Eleven candidates are competing, including establishment figures Tahesha Way, Brendan Gill and Tom Malinowski, and progressive Analilia Mejia, who is calling for abolition of ICE. The primary is seen as an early test of messaging ahead of the midterms, and has attracted significant fundraising and outside spending.
Key points
- Immigration has become the dominant issue in the New Jersey race, with policy proposals ranging from procedural reforms for federal agents to calls to abolish ICE.
- Fundraising and outside spending are substantial - most leading candidates have raised over $400,000, Malinowski has nearly $1.2 million, and a pro-Israel super PAC has spent $2.3 million against him - highlighting the financial intensity of the contest.
- The debate has national echoes: actions and proposals in other states, including resolutions to impeach a Cabinet official and cross-state disputes over ICE presence, show immigration is a campaign fulcrum beyond New Jersey.
Sectors potentially impacted
- Political advertising and media - high outside spending and ad buys can influence demand for political ad inventory and related services.
- Government and homeland security-related contractors - shifts in enforcement priorities or congressional oversight debates could bear on procurement and contracting sentiment.
- Local community services and legal aid - increased enforcement activity can affect demand for immigration legal services and community support organizations.
Risks and uncertainties
- Attack ads and large external expenditures could distort voter perceptions and alter primary outcomes - this risk is underscored by the $2.3 million spent by a pro-Israel super PAC in this race, which has targeted a leading candidate.
- Heightened enforcement actions can produce local fear and political backlash - exemplified by the detention and subsequent release of a 17-year-old student in the district, which candidates cite as influencing voter sentiment.
- Nationalization of the immigration debate creates uncertainty about which messages will prevail in different regions - as similar disputes are playing out in Illinois, Michigan and Maine, it is unclear how national narratives will translate to local voter priorities.
Disclosure