Economy January 29, 2026

U.S. Treasury Says Recent Won Weakness Exceeded South Korea’s Fundamentals

Semi-annual currency report flags sharp depreciation and notes policy and political drivers without accusing manipulation

By Sofia Navarro
U.S. Treasury Says Recent Won Weakness Exceeded South Korea’s Fundamentals

The U.S. Treasury said recent declines in the South Korean won outpaced the country’s underlying economic strength, according to its semi-annual currency report. The assessment pointed to a spike in depreciation pressures in late 2024 tied to a policy rate cut and domestic political instability, and noted further weakening into late 2025. South Korea was placed on a monitoring list but was not labeled a currency manipulator.

Key Points

  • Treasury found won depreciation in late 2024 and late 2025 not aligned with South Korea’s strong fundamentals - Impact: FX markets and financial stability.
  • Pressures traced to a November 2024 policy rate cut and domestic political instability - Impact: central bank policy and domestic financial conditions.
  • Domestic investors' purchases of overseas stocks and concerns about additional U.S. investment under a trade deal contributed to currency weakness - Impact: cross-border capital flows and equity markets.

The U.S. Treasury has concluded that the recent slide in the South Korean won exceeded what would be expected given the country’s robust economic fundamentals, according to its semi-annual review of currency practices.

In the report, the Treasury said depreciation pressures on the won intensified in the fourth quarter of 2024 after the Bank of Korea cut its policy rate in November and as domestic political instability emerged. The report adds that the won weakened further in late 2025, a move the Treasury judged to be inconsistent with South Korea’s strong fundamentals.

South Korean authorities moved in December to shore up the currency as it fell toward the psychologically sensitive level of 1,500 won per dollar. The Treasury noted that the currency had been under pressure from several factors, including domestic investors increasing purchases of overseas equities and concerns tied to additional U.S. investment that was part of a trade agreement concluded with the administration of President Donald Trump.

The won traded at 1,434.0 per dollar at the close of Thursday trading, having recovered somewhat in recent sessions after a coordinated response from Japan and the United States helped lift the yen - an influence that also supported broader regional currency moves.

In the latest semi-annual assessment, the Treasury reported that no major trading partner met all three criteria that would trigger enhanced analysis of currency practices during the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025. South Korea was retained on a monitoring list warranting close attention, but the report explicitly did not accuse Seoul of manipulating its currency.

While the Treasury highlighted specific drivers of the won’s depreciation, it stopped short of labeling the policy or market behavior as currency manipulation. The monitoring-list designation means the United States will continue to watch trade and currency dynamics involving South Korea closely, even as it acknowledges the nation’s underlying economic strength.


Summary

The U.S. Treasury said the won's recent weakening went beyond South Korea's strong economic fundamentals, citing a late-2024 rate cut, domestic political instability, overseas equity purchases by domestic investors, and concerns about additional U.S. investment under a trade deal. The won was on a partial rebound after coordinated actions by Japan and the U.S., and South Korea remains on a monitoring list but was not accused of currency manipulation.

Risks

  • Further won depreciation driven by investor outflows or renewed political instability could stress FX markets and affect financial institutions exposed to currency moves - Affected sectors: FX markets, banking.
  • Changes to monetary policy or additional external investment concerns may resume pressure on the currency, creating volatility for exporters and importers that depend on stable exchange rates - Affected sectors: corporate treasuries, trade-exposed businesses.
  • Ongoing monitoring by the U.S. Treasury keeps the spotlight on South Korea’s currency and policy choices, introducing uncertainty for international investors watching potential policy responses - Affected sectors: international investment flows and markets.

More from Economy

Economists Say Warsh Nomination Unlikely to Shift Fed Policy This Year Feb 2, 2026 Pound Holds Near $1.37 Ahead of Bank of England Decision Feb 2, 2026 UK Manufacturing PMI Climbs to Highest Level Since August 2024 as New Orders Accelerate Feb 2, 2026 German Retail Sales Seen Rising 2% in 2026, Real Growth Near-Stagnant Feb 2, 2026 Warsh Signals Desire to Shrink Fed Balance Sheet — Practical Limits Make Rapid Change Unlikely Feb 2, 2026