Economy January 22, 2026

U.S. Intensifies Efforts to Overthrow Cuban Government by Year's End

Following Venezuela's Regime Shift, Washington Pursues Similar Outcome in Cuba

By Caleb Monroe
U.S. Intensifies Efforts to Overthrow Cuban Government by Year's End

The U.S. government is actively working to facilitate regime change in Cuba before the end of the year, using the recent leadership transition in Venezuela as a strategic template. Efforts include seeking defections within Cuban officials amid anticipated economic collapse due to lost Venezuelan support.

Key Points

  • The U.S. government is actively pursuing regime change in Cuba by the end of the year, using the Venezuelan military operation as a reference model.
  • Efforts include identifying insiders within the Cuban regime who might promote transition, amid intelligence suggesting the Cuban economy is nearing collapse following loss of Venezuelan support.
  • President Trump has publicly increased pressure through social media, emphasizing cessation of oil and financial assistance to Cuba and issuing warnings tied to recent lethal operations against Cuban agents.

The United States administration under President Donald Trump has escalated initiatives aimed at precipitating a change of government in Cuba within the current year. This move follows the earlier successful displacement of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro in early January.

According to informed sources, U.S. officials are engaging in covert outreach to identify members inside the Cuban government who might be willing to negotiate an exit from the Communist regime. Intelligence evaluations indicate that Cuba’s economy is approaching collapse, largely due to the cessation of support from Venezuela, its foremost ally.

Officials have not formalized a detailed blueprint but consider the recent military intervention in Venezuela as a potential framework for operations in Cuba. President Trump has actively deployed social media platforms to increase pressure on Cuban leaders by highlighting the nation’s diminishing resources. On January 11, he declared that the United States would cease all oil and financial transfers to Cuba, emphasizing a total cutoff.

The administration appears to be using the recent incursion in Caracas, which resulted in the deaths of 32 Cuban operatives, as a veiled warning of possible military action. Highlighting the urgency of negotiations, the President publicly urged Cuban authorities to "make a deal before it is too late."

U.S. officials conducting meetings in Miami and Washington have collaborated with Cuban exile organizations to locate potential defectors within the existing power structure. Those willing to acknowledge the declining prospects of the regime are viewed as instrumental in facilitating a transition.

President Trump has publicly characterized Cuba as a "failing nation" on the verge of collapse due to profound economic instability. The administration's strategic goal is to dismantle the Communist government established nearly seventy years ago and secure a lasting impact on U.S. foreign policy before the year 2027.

Risks

  • Potential instability in Cuba’s political and economic environment could have unpredictable regional effects impacting trade and investment in Caribbean markets.
  • The use of military or covert actions as implicit threats introduces a risk of escalation, which may affect geopolitical stability and U.S. relations with neighboring countries.
  • The reliance on defections and internal negotiations involves uncertainty, as the existing Cuban leadership may resist transition efforts, prolonging uncertainty in the region.

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