Thailand recorded a 0.66% year-on-year decline in its headline consumer price index for January, the government commerce ministry reported. This marks the 10th consecutive month in which headline inflation has registered a negative annual rate.
The January reading followed a 0.28% annual fall in December. The ministry's figure was weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.40% annual decline, and remained well below the central bank's stated inflation target range of 1% to 3%.
Authorities attributed the continued negative headline reading to lower energy prices and a package of government measures aimed at reducing household living costs. The ministry also provided a short-term outlook, saying headline inflation is expected to remain negative in February and March before turning positive in March.
By contrast, the core consumer price index - which excludes the more volatile categories of energy and fresh food - rose by 0.60% on a year-on-year basis in January. That divergence highlights the softer contribution from energy and fresh food to overall inflation while underlying price pressures measured by the core metric showed modest expansion.
Implications for businesses and markets are evident in the split between headline and core inflation. Sectors exposed to energy costs and fresh-food supply chains are the most directly affected by the headline weakness, while companies whose pricing power is tied to broader demand and non-volatile input costs may be more closely monitored in light of the uptick in core inflation.
Looking ahead, the ministry's projection that headline inflation will remain negative into early spring suggests continued pressure on nominal price levels from the energy component and through government relief measures. At the same time, the modest year-on-year rise in core CPI signals that not all price pressures have dissipated.
This combination of negative headline inflation and positive core inflation creates a mixed profile for monetary and fiscal watchers. The headline shortfall relative to the central bank target underscores the gap between current inflation outcomes and policy objectives, while the core increase may shape assessments of underlying demand-driven price trends.
Summary of data:
- Headline CPI: -0.66% year-on-year in January (10th consecutive month negative).
- Previous month (December): -0.28% year-on-year.
- Market forecast referenced: -0.40% year-on-year.
- Core CPI (ex-energy and fresh food): +0.60% year-on-year in January.
- Central bank inflation target range: 1% to 3%.