Thailand’s finance ministry said on Tuesday it expects the economy to expand by 2.0% this year, leaving its previous projection intact.
At a press conference, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, who leads the ministry’s fiscal policy office, said exports - a major engine of the country’s growth - are now forecast to increase by 1.0% this year, reversing an earlier projection that had predicted a 1.5% decline.
The ministry estimated that the economy grew 2.2% in 2025, a slowdown from 2.5% in 2024. It said official gross domestic product figures for 2025 will be published next month by the state planning agency.
Separately, the central bank’s projection for economic expansion in 2026 is 1.5%, a figure noted alongside the finance ministry’s outlook.
Officials highlighted a range of headwinds weighing on the economy. The appreciating baht, the imposition of U.S. tariffs, elevated household debt, an ongoing border dispute with Cambodia and political uncertainty as the country approaches elections in early February were cited as factors that have constrained economic momentum.
The ministry pointed out movement in the currency as a particular risk to competitiveness: the baht has strengthened about 1.4% against the U.S. dollar so far this year after rising roughly 9% in 2025, putting pressure on both export and tourism sectors.
On tourism, the finance ministry retained its earlier forecast of 35.5 million foreign arrivals for this year. By comparison, there were 32.9 million inbound visitors last year - still well below the pre-pandemic peak of nearly 40 million in 2019.
Inflation expectations were revised lower by the ministry, which now projects headline inflation of 0.3% this year, down from a prior forecast of 0.5%. For context, the central bank’s inflation target range sits between 1% and 3%.
The ministry noted that headline consumer prices fell 0.14% in 2025 from the previous year.
On trade policy, the U.S. has imposed a 19% tariff on some imports from Thailand, applied in line with similar measures for other countries in the region. The ministry said there remain uncertainties related to potential U.S. tariffs on goods transshipped via Thailand from third countries.
Implications
- Maintained growth forecast signals cautious confidence in a modest recovery while acknowledging persistent risks.
- Upward revision in export expectations may ease some concerns for trade-dependent industries, although currency strength could offset gains.
- Lower inflation expectations leave room below the central bank’s target range, affecting monetary policy considerations.