Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,613 total articles
Bank of America has updated its outlook for European Central Bank policy, now anticipating two 25 basis point reductions in March and June 2027. The shift reflects the bank's assessment that cuts will come only after visible slowing in German growth driven by fiscal developments and an extended period of inflation, especially core inflation, below …
A Bank of England Market Participants Survey finds investors anticipate the central bank will reduce its Bank Rate from 3.75% to 3.0% by the March 2027 meeting. The survey, conducted Jan. 21-23 with 92 respondents, also left the median forecast for 12-month quantitative tightening unchanged at 50 billion pounds and lifted the 10-year gilt year-end …
Carlyle Group reported a rise in fourth-quarter distributable earnings, supported by realized gains at its private-equity unit and strength across its global credit and secondaries businesses. Distributable earnings rose to $436 million, or $1.01 per share, while net realized performance revenue increased to $123 million. Fee-related earnings edged…
A sharp AI-fueled correction within large-cap technology, particularly software stocks, has unsettled equity markets and erased the S&P 500's gains for 2026. Investors are watching whether a broader rotation into energy, consumer staples and industrials can offset drag from tech as a packed calendar of labor and inflation reports could reshape expe…
Elon Musk told the Dwarkesh Podcast that power generation is becoming the primary constraint on scaling artificial intelligence, and he proposed orbital solar arrays and space-based data centers as a solution. Musk said SpaceX's low-cost, high-capacity launch capabilities and mass production of space solar arrays could eventually make space the che…
UBS interprets the Bank of England's decision to hold the policy rate at 3.75% and the narrow 5-4 Monetary Policy Committee vote as a clear shift toward easier policy. A steeper-than-expected downgrade to the BoE's inflation forecast, plus evidence of slowing wage and price dynamics, underpins UBS's call for a 25 basis point cut in March and anothe…
Traders face a dense calendar: Japan’s surprise lower house election could free fiscal policy and affect bonds and the yen; earnings will further separate AI winners and losers; delayed U.S. payrolls and CPI readings arrive this week and could influence the Fed’s path; the Munich Security Conference brings geopolitical and ECB liquidity discussions…
U.S. futures opened lower after another day of tech weakness, driven in part by Amazon's announcement of a substantial rise in capital expenditure aimed at AI infrastructure and by a deep revaluation of electric-vehicle plans at Stellantis. Bitcoin plunged sharply, while oil prices rose modestly as markets awaited talks between U.S. and Iranian off…
Markets entered the day under strain as a delayed U.S. jobs report and a sharp rise in announced layoffs intensified speculation that the Federal Reserve could ease policy at its next meeting. Global equities fell for a third consecutive day, with emerging markets and Korean shares notably weak, while bitcoin and silver staged partial recoveries. T…
Indonesia's equity market and currency fell sharply after Moody's cut the country's credit outlook to negative from stable, intensifying a selloff that follows an $80 billion equity rout last week. The Jakarta Composite Index dropped nearly 3% while the rupiah weakened to 16,885 per dollar. Ratings concerns, transparency flags and policy uncertaint…
The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate at 5.25% and maintained a Neutral stance, while upgrading near-term inflation projections and pointing to improving export prospects from recent and prospective trade deals. The central bank warned of a sharper pick-up in consumer inflation in the coming months even as GDP growth remains robust.
The Reserve Bank of India held its policy repo rate at 5.25% following a unanimous decision by its six-member monetary policy committee, retaining a neutral stance. A recent trade agreement with the United States, which cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian imports from nearly 50% to 18%, has reduced a key source of pressure on India’s economy and markets. T…
A Reuters poll of 16 economists indicates Japan likely returned to growth in the October-December 2025 quarter, with annualised GDP rising an estimated 1.6% after a sharp contraction in the prior quarter. The pickup is attributed to robust corporate capital expenditure and steady private consumption, while net external demand made a small positive …
Singapore is set to announce a conservative Budget on February 12 that prioritises fiscal prudence after elevated household support in 2025. Economists from Bank of America, Maybank and DBS expect an overall fiscal surplus of between 0.3% and 1% of GDP. The government is likely to shift focus toward longer-term measures such as technology and innov…
Bitcoin plunged to a 16-month low on Friday and briefly tested the $60,000 level as a rout in technology stocks and other risk assets intensified. The largest cryptocurrency later traded higher in choppy action but remained under pressure, while ether and the wider crypto market also registered steep declines. Market flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ET…
Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masu said the central bank must raise interest rates in a timely manner to prevent underlying inflation from breaching the 2% target, while taking care not to choke off a nascent wage-price upturn. Speaking in Matsuyama, Masu said underlying inflation remains below 2% but is drawing close, and that further policy…
The U.S. Attorney in Manhattan announced plans to expand incentives for corporate cooperation in criminal probes, including quick non-prosecution agreements (NPAs). Speaking at a securities enforcement forum in New York, he framed the approach as a way to encourage cooperation, protect shareholders and target misconduct in small-cap stocks, private…
Mexico's central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 7%, temporarily halting an easing cycle that began almost two years ago. Officials said the pause was signaled in their recent monetary program and pointed to persistent core inflation that remains above the bank's tolerance band. Policymakers will account for recently imposed tariffs on Asian…
The Bank of England voted narrowly to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% but signalled that borrowing costs are likely to fall if a projected decline in inflation proves durable. The 5-4 vote to hold was tighter than economists had expected and came alongside downgraded growth forecasts and a higher unemployment peak. Sterling and short-term government bo…
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told the Empire Club in Toronto that reshaping the Canadian economy to handle U.S. tariffs, weaker population growth and the integration of artificial intelligence will take years and could be painful. The central bank last week kept its policy rate at 2.25% for a second consecutive meeting and emphasized unusua…
Federal enforcement actions brought on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency fell to historic lows in 2025, with just 16 civil complaints filed by the Justice Department. An analysis by the Environmental Integrity Project shows steep declines in both filings and settled cases compared with the opening years of prior administrations.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told reporters that while artificial intelligence is fueling a surge in private-sector investment across information and communications technology, the productivity gains from that spending will take time to materialize. She spoke after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and described investment …
Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, has asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to terminate a $20 billion currency swap line provided to Argentina last year. In a letter dated Wednesday, Warren reminded Bessent that the Treasury had described the facility as for "acute, short-term and urgent" needs tied to Ar…
The European Central Bank held its key deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, signaling a probable policy pause given cooling inflation and moderate economic expansion. Recent data showing inflation at 1.7% and 2025 growth of 1.5% reduce immediate impetus for further easing or tightening, though currency appreciation and external disinflation pressures ke…
Moody's downgraded its outlook on Indonesia from stable to negative while keeping the nation's Baa2 rating, citing reduced predictability in policymaking and signs of weakening governance following market volatility tied to transparency concerns. The move comes as officials promise reforms and the government stresses economic resilience amid invest…
