Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,613 total articles
Emails released by the U.S. Justice Department on January 30 show Tesla director Kimbal Musk had interactions tied to at least two women who were connected to financier Jeffrey Epstein in the years after Epstein's sex crime conviction. The correspondence, dated 2012-2015, includes messages between Musk, Epstein and associate Boris Nikolic discussin…
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan warned of vulnerabilities tied to the sharp increase in the Treasury basis trade, saying the strategy’s recent expansion could amplify pressures during market stress. Speaking in Austin, she urged stronger risk management, greater transparency and completion of official-sector reforms while also …
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said she is "cautiously optimistic" that the Fed's present policy rate, held at 3.50% to 3.75%, can guide inflation back to the 2% target while keeping the labor market intact. She said upcoming economic data will determine whether the current stance is sufficient, and reiterated concerns that some infla…
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in Austin that if upcoming data confirm the current path, the Fed's policy rate should be adequate to steer inflation toward the 2% goal without further cuts. She emphasized progress on inflation is expected this year but highlighted several sources of upside risk and said significant labor-market cooling could…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said the U.S. banking system remains healthy while expressing concern about growing leverage in the Treasury market driven by elevated government borrowing. She cautioned on the risk of inflation becoming entrenched, emphasized the Fed’s independence, and urged improvements to the discount wi…
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a congressional hearing that Nvidia will need to accept the specific licensing conditions governing sales of its second-most advanced AI chip, the H200, to China. Lutnick said those terms were worked out with the State Department and must be followed. On whether China will honor usage restrictions, he deferred…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack told attendees at an Ohio Bankers League event that the central bank does not face urgent pressure to change its policy rate this year. Citing a cautiously optimistic economic outlook and the recent policy easing, she said the Fed could keep the federal funds rate steady for an extended perio…
The New York Federal Reserve’s quarterly household debt report found a modest uptick in overall credit stress during the fourth quarter of 2025. Mortgages broadly remain healthy by long-run measures, but delinquencies are climbing in lower-income and economically weakened areas. Student loans are the most acutely troubled category, with a large rec…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told attendees at the BTG Pactual CEO Conference in Sao Paolo that relations between the United States and China are currently "a very comfortable place," while stressing that Washington seeks to de-risk ties rather than sever them. He framed the relationship as a rivalry that should be fair, expressed optimism…
Retail sales in the United States were unchanged in December, weaker than economists had expected and following a revised strong gain in November. Core retail sales - those most closely tied to GDP - eased, and a decline in household saving combined with data delays and downward revisions that may prompt cuts to fourth-quarter consumer spending and…
Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad suggested the government consider a renewed structural approach to social-assistance spending, likening the idea to the 2003 consolidation that created Bolsa Familia. Speaking at a BTG Pactual event, he framed the discussion around efficiency and fiscal oversight, while clarifying no formal proposal has be…
Brazil’s annual inflation rose to 4.44% through January from 4.26% in December, slightly above economists' median forecast but still inside the central bank’s target band. Monthly prices climbed 0.33%, with transportation and fuel costs the principal contributors. The central bank has held the Selic rate at 15% but signalled the start of rate cuts …
Bank of America has sharply raised its projection for Taiwan's 2026 economic growth to 8% from 4.5%, attributing the revision to a powerful export-led surge in the fourth quarter of 2025. Economists at the bank say the move reflects more than a short-term revaluation, pointing to enduring optimism around technology-driven expansion underpinned by A…
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox Business Network that negotiations over the USMCA are active with Mexico but have been more difficult with Canada. Greer said talks will continue in bilateral channels with both countries and stressed that discussions about the Gordie Howe International Bridge are a distinct negotiation. His comment…
Brazil's inflation rate rose in January, nudging above market expectations and underscoring a cautious stance from monetary policymakers as they prepare to begin cutting interest rates. Consumer prices climbed 4.44% year-on-year and 0.33% month-on-month, with transportation and fuels leading the monthly increase. Central bank officials, led by Gove…
Taiwan's trade negotiating team has departed for the United States to hold a final meeting on a recently negotiated reciprocal trade agreement. The deal would lower tariffs on Taiwanese exports to the U.S. and mobilize large-scale Taiwanese investment and credit guarantees to expand semiconductor, energy and artificial intelligence production in th…
The Thomson Reuters Institute’s Law Firm Financial Index reported a 14.1% rise in profits for U.S. law firms in the fourth quarter of 2025, the largest year-over-year gain since the 2021-2022 pandemic boom. The increase was driven by higher billing rates and slower expense growth. However, a marked slowdown in mergers and acquisitions demand and a …
A European Central Bank analysis finds that tariff actions abroad - notably US tariffs on European goods - tend to lower consumer prices and reduce industrial production in the euro area over the medium term. The researchers identify tariff-related trade surprises, document an initial modest uptick in prices, and show a subsequent decline in consum…
A blog post by European Central Bank economists finds that U.S. tariffs imposed last year have reduced euro zone exports to the United States and exerted downward pressure on inflation. The study concludes demand losses dominate any supply-side inflation boost, with the largest effects in machinery, autos and chemicals - sectors that are also highl…
Bank of America has reaffirmed its projection that Mexico's central bank will cut its policy rate to 6.00% by the end of 2026. The bank anticipates 25 basis point reductions every other meeting, starting on March 26, and points to below-potential growth, a negative output gap and supportive fiscal policy as the rationale for an easing cycle. Howeve…
Indonesia’s new administration is pressing forward with large-scale social and rural spending programs intended to accelerate growth to 8%, even after market disruptions triggered by MSCI and a negative outlook from Moody’s. Officials say core programmes are politically entrenched and unlikely to be cut, while investors warn the strategy raises fis…
U.S. equity futures were largely unchanged as markets digested a technology-driven rebound from the prior session and prepared for a packed calendar of corporate earnings and influential economic data. Investors are watching results from major companies including CVS Health and Coca-Cola, while December U.S. retail sales and core retail sales estim…
Net foreign selling across a basket of Asian stock markets accelerated sharply in the first week of February, driven by a global decline in high-growth technology shares amid worries about elevated AI-related capital expenditures. South Korea and Taiwan recorded the largest weekly outflows, while India saw fresh inflows tied to tariff relief optimi…
India is engaged in confidential discussions with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands to pursue cooperative agreements on exploration, extraction, processing and recycling of critical minerals, with a focus on lithium and rare earths. The Ministry of Mines is leading the effort as India looks to replicate aspects of a recent pact with German…
Global equity indexes hit fresh highs driven by technology shares, even as the U.S. government signals a major change to climate regulation by preparing to overturn the EPA’s endangerment finding. The dollar has weakened heading into a busy U.S. data week that includes retail sales, delayed payrolls and inflation readings. Fed funds futures show tr…
