Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,626 total articles
The Trump administration is pursuing an increase in the temporary global tariff to 15% from the 10% rate that U.S. Customs and Border Protection recently published, a White House official said. The higher rate reflects President Trump's stated preference after he issued a formal order that established a 10% duty to run for 150 days. The temporary l…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the U.S. central bank is taking a careful, coordinated approach to adopting artificial intelligence, stressing robust security, model validation and human accountability. Speaking at a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference, Waller outlined specific guardrails and said the Fed will align system-wi…
Brazil's federal tax receipts rose 3.56% in real terms in January to 325.8 billion reais ($62.87 billion), the strongest January outcome on record. The result coincided with the first month of a tax reform that expands income-tax exemptions for lower and middle-income earners while introducing new withholding levies on certain dividend flows and a …
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee signaled that the central bank could resume lowering interest rates if inflation returns toward target, but cautioned against loosening policy now based on hopes for rising productivity. He warned that premature cuts risk stoking overheating if investment-driven productivity gains do not materi…
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP will accelerate in 2026 above consensus, driven by tax cuts, a fading tariff drag and easier financial conditions that should bolster business investment. The bank flags a sharp equity correction, AI-related labor disruptions and consumer-facing tariff pass-throughs as the key downside risks that could trim growth.
A Reuters poll of market analysts and strategists finds European stocks have enjoyed a robust start to 2026 but are forecast to slip in mid-year before finishing the year only marginally higher. The STOXX 600 is seen reaching 640 by end-2026, reflecting modest gains from current levels as investors weigh geopolitical risks, tariff developments and …
Mexico's annual inflation rose to 3.92% in the first half of February, slightly above economists' expectations, while core inflation climbed to 4.52%, remaining well above the central bank's 3% target range. The data reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting after Banxico's pause earlier this month.
China's nine-day Lunar New Year holiday produced a strong rebound in domestic travel and consumer spending, with official data showing 596 million domestic trips and 803.5 billion yuan in tourism receipts. Gains were widespread across major cities, scenic areas and lower-tier destinations, while the box office recorded a sharp decline in takings an…
Bank of America Securities analysts say Brazil, Canada and Mexico look positioned to be relative beneficiaries of U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly implemented global tariffs. The levies, issued under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, began at 10% following a Supreme Court decision that limited the administration’s prior reciprocal tariff author…
A provocative thought experiment that sketched a "Global Intelligence Crisis" from rapid AI adoption prompted a quick alternative narrative from a major research shop. Citrini Research's hypothetical scenario warned of a severe equity drawdown, soaring unemployment and private credit stress by mid-2028 if AI-driven productivity shocks outpace econo…
Home Depot reported fourth-quarter same-store sales growth that exceeded Wall Street forecasts, driven by continued demand from professional contractors and consumers opting for lower-cost repairs. The Atlanta-based retailer said it reaffirmed the annual sales forecast provided in December, and its shares rose in premarket trading following the rep…
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly voiced reservations about additional interest rate increases during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week, a development that market participants interpreted as potential tension between the government and the central bank. The yen weakened versus the dollar and euro after the r…
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that wide adoption of artificial intelligence by employers may reduce demand for labor and push the natural rate of unemployment higher. He argued the Federal Reserve should not attempt to force the unemployment rate lower with interest-rate cuts if the change is structural, and that fiscal polic…
More than a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, sweeping economic measures have produced a patchwork of outcomes: stronger-than-expected GDP growth fueled by tax cuts and heavy tech investment, a resurgence in manufacturing output, and stubborn inflation and tepid job creation. A Supreme Court ruling that struck down emergency global ta…
Japan has requested that its treatment under newly announced U.S. tariffs remain as favourable as under the trade agreement struck last year. Tokyo is treading carefully before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s planned late-March visit to Washington, citing risks to sectors like autos if additional levies are layered on existing concessions.
United Nations General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock pressed the United States to settle its full dues after Washington sent roughly $160 million toward more than $4 billion it owes to the U.N. The partial payment, less than 5% of the total, came amid warnings from the U.N. Secretary-General that unpaid contributions threaten the organizatio…
A lethal dormitory raid at Senegal’s principal university, sparked by disputes over delayed student aid, has intensified scrutiny of the government’s handling of public finances after the discovery of roughly $13 billion in misreported borrowing. The confrontation left one student dead, hundreds detained and the university closed, while budget adju…
Analysts at Yardeni Research describe the U.S. economy since 2020 as "shock resistant," arguing that it has navigated a sequence of severe challenges without falling into a prolonged recession. They point to the brief, government-imposed downturn at the start of the pandemic as the shortest U.S. recession on record, and note that subsequent stresse…
U.S. equity futures were largely flat as investors awaited a busy week of corporate earnings, with concerns about potential disruptions from artificial intelligence weighing on sentiment. President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariffs took effect after a Supreme Court ruling curtailed his broader emergency-powers levies. Meanwhile, Paramount Skydance …
Barclays has slashed its peak sales projection for Novo Nordisk’s next-generation obesity treatment CagriSema to $2 billion from $12 billion after late-stage trial results revealed the drug underperformed Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. The data prompted notable analyst skepticism about CagriSema’s commercial prospects, large moves in both companies’ share p…
Investors are increasingly unsettled by a sequence of policy choices and abrupt regulatory actions in Indonesia that followed a downgrade of its sovereign outlook and criticism from an index provider. Market responses - including a weak government debt auction, a currency trading near record lows, and a lagging equity benchmark - suggest growing co…
India's statistics office will roll out a revised national accounts series on February 27 that changes how real GDP is calculated, adopting more granular price deflation and moving toward double deflation. The overhaul expands the set of items used to deflate nominal output from about 180 to roughly 500-600 drawn from a new consumer price index and…
With the State of the Union address imminent, the administration faces mixed public sentiment after 13 months defined by aggressive use of executive power, an overhaul of trade policy, heightened military posture abroad and a rollback of climate and regulatory measures at home. The president is expected to defend his record on the economy while nav…
U.S. President Donald Trump's revised global tariff was implemented at a 10% rate at midnight on Tuesday after the Supreme Court curtailed the use of emergency powers that underpinned many earlier levies. The tariff, issued under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, covers imports unless a specific exemption applies and will remain in force for 15…
The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of emergency tariffs has prompted a sharp reaction from President Trump and left trade partners seeking clarity on previously negotiated terms. Asian governments, notably Japan and Taiwan, are pressing Washington for assurances. Meanwhile, China imposed export restrictions on certain Japanese entities, and regiona…
