Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,613 total articles
Wolfe Research's Stephanie Roth told clients that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates this summer. While inflation remains above the Fed's 2% objective with upside risks to headline and core measures, Roth says the labor market will not support a hike. Market expectations have shifted sharply, and ongoing geopolitical tensions c…
The conflict involving Iran, now into its fourth week, has triggered a sharp disruption to energy markets that is reverberating through advanced and emerging economies alike. Countries with heavy energy import dependence, concentrated manufacturing bases, or fragile fiscal and foreign-exchange positions are showing the greatest vulnerability. Polic…
The National Retail Federation projects U.S. consumer outlays for Easter 2026 will climb to a record $24.9 billion, a 5.5% rise from 2025. Per-person budgets are also expected to set a new high, and candy remains the dominant category for holiday shoppers, according to an NRF survey of 7,845 adults conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Iranian authorities are increasingly reluctant to participate in face-to-face ceasefire negotiations, fearing such meetings could expose top officials to targeted attacks. Tehran also views a pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure with suspicion, interpreting it as a possible tactic to calm global oil markets ahead of renewed milita…
Barclays lifted its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 from 7,400, pointing to robust corporate profits driven by technology and steady U.S. growth as the rationale. The brokerage raised its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimate to $321 from $305, upgraded several sector ratings and outlined a downside case of 5,900, while warning that higher…
Iran has halted natural gas exports to Turkey following an Israeli strike on the South Pars gas field on March 18. Turkey, which sourced about 14% of its gas from Iran last year, continues to receive supplies from Russia and Azerbaijan and is drawing on stockpiles. The length of the interruption is unknown and Turkish authorities have not commented…
The military action involving Iran has triggered abrupt moves in Britain’s mortgage market, pushing two- and five-year fixed rates higher and prompting lenders to withdraw a significant share of products. Moneyfacts data shows rate gains and product removals at levels not seen since the pandemic and the 2022 mini-budget turmoil.
In minutes from its most recent meeting, Brazil's central bank said the scale and length of future interest-rate adjustments will be decided gradually as new economic and geopolitical information becomes available. The statement followed a 25-basis-point reduction that set the policy rate at 14.75% and emphasized that ongoing geopolitical conflicts…
Goldman Sachs warns that the ongoing conflict involving Iran is putting renewed upward pressure on global oil markets, with significant implications for U.S. inflation. The bank's commodities strategists project sharp near-term Brent crude averages under constrained Strait of Hormuz flows and outline scenarios where prices could surge toward or abo…
Bank of America has downgraded its GDP growth projection for the Dominican Republic to 3%, saying the country's rebound will be slow. The bank highlighted a contrast between a recovering tourism sector and a more sluggish performance across the rest of the economy, while flagging a narrowing window for reforms and heightened sensitivity to oil pric…
Germany’s foreign minister said he believes U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that the United States held talks with Iran could mark a shift in the month-long Middle East conflict. The assessment follows Trump’s Truth Social post describing conversations with Tehran as "very good and productive," despite Iran’s denial that any talks occurred. Joh…
Documents reviewed show Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team issued grand jury subpoenas and nondisclosure orders seeking phone, text, online account, billing, IP and bank records for Kash Patel over multi-year periods. The scope and duration of the requests, and a court nondisclosure order, were disclosed by Republican senators before a subcommittee …
U.S. stock index futures slipped after a sharp one-day rally as uncertainty resurfaced over possible talks between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran’s power grid citing productive discussions, but Iranian officials deny negotiations occurred. The geopolitical uncertainty has pushed oil prices higher …
British business activity slowed in March to its weakest pace in six months as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran sent costs for manufacturers sharply higher, according to a preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index. The composite PMI fell to 51.0 from 53.7 in February, while a separate S&P gauge of manufacturers' input prices recorded its larges…
U.S. stock futures were subdued and oil prices climbed as new strikes rattled the Middle East following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a short delay to planned attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure. Tehran denied that substantive talks had taken place, and investors await U.S. flash purchasing managers index data for early indications of…
China's largest state-owned banks are positioned to recover part of their margin losses after nearly 54 trillion yuan (about $7.8 trillion) in time deposits mature in 2026 and roll over at much lower rates. Analysts say the shift in deposit pricing, together with policy moves by banks and the regulator, should help stabilise net interest margins af…
Foreign investors have withdrawn a record-scale $50.45 billion from selected Asian equity markets in March as fears of Middle East supply disruption tied to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran lift crude prices and prompt a reassessment of rate paths. The bulk of selling has focused on Taiwan, South Korea and India, with technology names particular…
Analysts at NH Investment & Securities estimate BTS’ upcoming world tour could generate about 8 trillion won ($5.32 billion) in combined direct and secondary consumer spending across the 44 cities on the itinerary. Fans traveling for concerts are spending on services, merchandise and local tourism experiences, boosting retail sales, hotel rates and…
Chinese automaker BYD registered 29,291 vehicles in the European Union during January-February 2026, a 179.2% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) figures. Battery-electric vehicles accounted for 312,369 registrations and 18.8% market share as total EU new car registrations…
A temporary easing in market stress following U.S. President Donald Trump’s postponement of a threat to bomb Iran’s power grid evaporated within a day. Renewed tensions in the Middle East, continued constraints on global energy supply and mixed market reactions left Asian equities tepid, U.S. and European futures volatile, and Brent crude back abov…
India's private sector activity cooled sharply in March, with HSBC's flash Composite PMI falling to 56.5 - the weakest reading in over three years - as price shocks from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran weighed on domestic demand. Manufacturing registered a 4-1/2-year low while services eased, even as international orders reached a survey record. Risin…
At the China Development Forum, Beijing presented a message of steadiness and continuity to a global business audience, emphasizing technological self-reliance, industrial upgrading and 'high-quality development' aligned with the new five-year plan. A notable presence of U.S. corporate leaders contrasted with the absence of Japanese executives, ref…
ING analysts argue the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as April, despite a softer headline CPI print in February. They highlight that core measures of inflation remain above the BOJ's 2% target, wages are rising strongly and business activity continues to expand, all of which increase the chances of a near-term policy move. The timin…
Thailand's customs-cleared exports increased 9.9% year-on-year in February, driven by electronics and electrical equipment, the commerce ministry reported on Tuesday. While shipments expanded in the first two months by 18.9% and are projected to rise for the year, the February outcome undershot market expectations and came alongside a sharp rise in…
Global markets reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay an attack on Iran’s power grid, which briefly reduced fears of an extended Middle East conflict. Trump said on his social platform that the U.S. and Iran had held "very good and productive" talks about a "complete and total resolution of hostilities in the Middle East," a cla…
