Economy January 27, 2026

Markets Navigate Earnings, Fed Decision and Shutdown Threat After Minnesota Unrest

Futures wobble as investors weigh corporate reports and a potential federal funding lapse tied to violent events in Minneapolis; gold nears record highs while oil cools

By Hana Yamamoto
Markets Navigate Earnings, Fed Decision and Shutdown Threat After Minnesota Unrest

U.S. stock futures moved in a narrow range as investors prepared for a busy corporate earnings calendar and a Federal Reserve policy decision. Heightened political risk from unrest in Minnesota, including the fatal shooting of a 37-year-old man by a U.S. Border Patrol agent, raised the prospect of a federal government funding lapse. Against this backdrop, gold traded near record levels and crude gave back some gains amid weather-driven U.S. supply disruptions.

Key Points

  • U.S. futures traded mixed as investors prepared for a packed earnings calendar and the Federal Reserve rate decision; mega-cap tech names were driving recent gains.
  • Deadly unrest in Minneapolis and calls for new oversight of the Department of Homeland Security raised the prospect of a partial U.S. government shutdown if a funding package is not signed by January 31.
  • Gold approached record highs amid geopolitical and trade tensions while oil pulled back slightly after recent gains, with U.S. winter storm-related supply losses supporting prices.

Market snapshot

U.S. equity futures traded mixed on Tuesday with traders positioning for a wave of corporate earnings and an imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate announcement. By 03:27 ET (08:27 GMT), Dow futures were down 31 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures were up 20 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 146 points, or 0.6%.

The prior session saw the main indexes climb, with both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extending rallies to a fourth consecutive session and touching their highest levels in a little over a week. The current run represented the longest streak of positive sessions since December, underpinned largely by strength in mega-cap technology names including Apple, Microsoft and Meta, which are scheduled to report later in the week.


Fed watch and leadership focus

Market participants are also focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision at the close of a two-day meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the central bank is widely expected to hold policy rates steady, a view supported by signs of relative economic strength in the United States. Attention remains on who President Donald Trump will nominate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.


Shutdown risk rises amid unrest in Minnesota

Political headlines added an extra layer of uncertainty after deadly unrest in Minneapolis following a shooting that killed a 37-year-old man at the hands of a U.S. Border Patrol agent. The incident prompted renewed demands from Senate Democrats for additional restrictions and oversight of the Department of Homeland Security, a key agency in the administration's immigration agenda.

Last week the House passed a series of funding bills intended to keep federal operations running, and the Senate had been broadly expected to follow. But with Democrats pressing for changes in response to the Minneapolis episode, the path to a smooth Senate agreement narrowed. Critically, despite having a Senate majority, President Trump's Republican Party still requires some Democratic support to avoid a funding lapse.

The president faces a January 31 deadline to sign a funding package into law. In recent days he appeared to seek a calming of the situation, describing a phone call with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as "very good," and media reports citing administration officials said Border Patrol Chief Gregory Bovino would be departing the state.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that whether a compromise can be reached to avoid a partial shutdown on 2/1 remains uncertain, but added that investors are not overly concerned about the risk at the moment.


Corporate results return to the foreground

Beyond the political noise, corporate earnings dominated investor attention. While the large technology companies were expected to headline the week, several substantial reports were scheduled to arrive before U.S. markets open on Tuesday. Healthcare giant UnitedHealth Group, aerospace and defence firm RTX Corporation, and planemaker Boeing were all on the docket, as were automaker General Motors and logistics player United Parcel Service.

Recent economic readings have raised talk of a "K-shaped" pattern in the U.S. economy, in which high-income households and larger corporations capture most of the activity while lower-income workers face persistent cost pressures and a sluggish labor market. The debut earnings season of 2026 will be watched for evidence on whether that divergence persists into the year.


Gold hangs near records

Precious metals continued to rally as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and trade tensions and ahead of the Fed decision. Spot gold last jumped 1.4% to $5,079.73 an ounce, while April gold futures were down 0.2% at $5,115.19/oz. Spot gold had earlier reached an all-time high of $5,111.11/oz on Monday.

Silver and platinum were also firm. Spot silver traded up nearly 4% at $107.9350/oz after setting a record above $111/oz, while spot platinum rose 2.7% to $2,656.27/oz.

Trade tensions factored into the precious metals rally. Alongside a recent threat of an effective trade embargo on Canada, President Trump said on Monday evening that he would raise tariffs on South Korean goods to 25%, alleging that Seoul was delaying implementation of a trade deal. As trade relationships fray, other countries have pursued alternative agreements; on Tuesday India and the European Union signed a free trade agreement that together cover about 25% of global gross domestic product and one-third of international trade.

Trade between India and the EU amounted to $136.5 billion in the fiscal year through March 2025. Combined, the two blocs account for nearly one-fifth of global trade and roughly 25% of the world population.


Oil eases after recent gains

Crude oil prices retreated modestly after posting a weekly advance. Brent futures slipped 0.5% to $64.46 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $60.38 a barrel. Both benchmarks had posted weekly gains of 2.7% last week and closed on Friday at their highest levels since January 14.

Losses were limited by production disruptions in the U.S. caused by a severe winter storm that strained energy infrastructure and power systems. U.S. oil producers were estimated to have lost up to 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 15% of national output, over the weekend, supporting prices despite the pullback.


Implications for sectors

The current environment places a premium on companies with demonstrated pricing power and resilient distribution networks. Technology and large-cap growth stocks, buoyed by the prospect of strong quarterly reports from Apple, Microsoft and Meta, have been leading the equity advance. Financial and industrial firms face sensitivity to policy direction from the Fed and to potential fiscal interruptions. Energy names remain responsive to weather-driven supply swings, while precious metal miners benefit from elevated safe-haven demand.


Near-term focus

Traders will remain attentive to earnings releases over the coming days, the Fed's rate announcement, and developments in Washington over funding legislation. Geopolitical moves and trade policy pronouncements also continue to shape flows into safe-haven assets and influence activity in commodity markets.


Risks

  • A potential partial federal government shutdown on 2/1 - could disrupt federal operations and create uncertainty for sectors dependent on government spending.
  • Political fallout from the Minneapolis shooting - renewed demands for DHS oversight and personnel changes could reshape immigration-related policy and oversight.
  • Weather-driven supply disruptions in the U.S. oil industry - loss of up to 2 million barrels per day (about 15% of national output) could continue to add volatility to energy markets.

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