Global investors and asset managers are currently exhibiting an increased appetite for geopolitical analysis as the multiplicity of political risks compels more nuanced investment decisions. This trend became particularly evident following the U.S. administration's threat of tariffs on several countries, contingent on agreements regarding Greenland's control, an event that swiftly unsettled financial markets worldwide.
The significance of geopolitical factors in shaping market dynamics has been accentuated by recent incidents such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the pronounced tariff strategies advocated by former U.S. President Donald Trump for his 2025 agenda, and the United States' recent involvement in Venezuela. Traditionally, political risks had a lower profile compared to conventional economic indicators and central bank policies. However, since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, there has been a steady escalation in demand for expert geopolitical guidance.
Mehill Marku, who leads geopolitical analysis at PGIM Fixed Income, noted that prior to 2022, geopolitical considerations were a supplementary rather than essential element of investment strategy. Since then, the volume of client inquiries has grown significantly, reflecting a heightened awareness of the complexity and interconnectedness of current global crises.
Investment firms and consultancies are responding by either building out their internal geopolitical analysis teams, engaging more external specialists, or expanding advisory services to include detailed scenario evaluations. Such efforts range from comprehensive reports to customized advice, helping clients better navigate an environment marked by rapidly evolving risks.
"Developing a new capability in geopolitical analysis has become almost essential," said Rishi Kapoor, vice chairman and chief investment officer at Investcorp, the Middle East’s largest alternative investment firm. He explained that previously, geopolitical context was largely perceived as stable background noise but now requires active and frequent assessment.
Similarly, Pandu Patria Sjahrir, chief investment officer at Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund Danantara, emphasized the prioritization of geopolitical risk this year. His team is now evaluating scenarios with an emphasis on worst-case outcomes, using these as base assumptions when underwriting investments.
The resurgence of geopolitical concerns has notably shifted investor priorities. According to Marc Gilbert, head of the Boston Consulting Group's Center for Geopolitics, geopolitical risk has moved from a lower-rank concern roughly a decade ago to a primary priority, largely influenced by fast-changing U.S. trade and foreign policy pronouncements—the pace and volatility of which have increased markedly.
Gilbert has personally witnessed a surge in demand, conducting 235 meetings over the past 18 months with senior corporate executives and board members regarding geopolitical risk issues—a clear indicator of the topic's heightened prominence.
A White House spokesperson, Kush Desai, responded to questions about rising demand for geopolitical risk analysis by underscoring the administration's focus on aggressive trade policies deemed to recalibrate global economic dynamics in favor of the United States. Desai pointed to substantial investment inflows as evidence of confidence in America's economic prospects.
In parallel, major financial institutions have been formalizing their commitment to geopolitical risk expertise. JPMorgan inaugurated a dedicated Center for Geopolitics in 2022, while Lazard Asset Management and Goldman Sachs launched specialized geopolitical advisory units in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Although these firms did not provide public comments, their moves signal recognition of geopolitics as a core element of investment advisory services.
Specialized geopolitical analysis providers are also experiencing growth, driven by investor demand. Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical analyst at BCA Investment Consulting, noted expansion within his firm, though he did not specify details. Likewise, Signum Global Advisors reported a 25% increase in partners last year, corresponding with a growing clientele interested in nuanced geopolitical risk assessments.
One area of particular investor interest involves the shifting power dynamics in Venezuela. Signum's founder, Charles Myers, highlighted over-subscription for a planned investor visit to Caracas, prompting considerations to elevate this from a small tour to a large-scale investor conference, reflecting intense curiosity about geopolitical developments there.
Jens Larsen, who heads the geo-economics team at Eurasia Group based in London, observed that competition among providers of geopolitical insight is intensifying but questioned whether supply can match the accelerating diversity and complexity of geopolitical challenges facing clients today.