Global commerce and financial relationships have undergone adjustments after the United States imposed unilateral tariffs on a wide range of trading partners, yet the dollar continues to serve as the principal anchor for international transactions, banking operations and official reserves, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist, said in an interview.
Gourinchas, who is due to depart the IMF and return to teaching next week, told the interviewer that the pattern of currency and reserve behavior has shown very little movement away from dollar dominance. He observed that, despite several developments in recent years, the dollar-centered structure remains intact.
"We are seeing very, very little in terms of movements that would indicate that we’re moving away from a dollar-centered world. We are very firmly in the dollar-centered world," he said. "That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t change at some point, but really the set of developments we’ve seen the 10 years, we’re seeing very, very minor things."
Gourinchas pointed to dynamics in the gold market as an illustration of how investor behavior can lift commodity prices without signalling a broader shift in reserve preferences. He said the sharp rise in gold prices over recent years has been driven in large part by the expansion of gold exchange-traded funds, which enable investors to gain exposure to the metal without taking physical possession.
He added that issuers of stablecoins have also been holding gold as an asset, contributing to demand and pushing prices higher. At the same time, he said, central banks have not been active buyers of gold, limiting any interpretation that official reserve managers are abandoning the dollar in favor of gold.
Market moves on the day reflected some of these themes. Gold nudged higher on Friday as the U.S. dollar eased and market expectations for further U.S. interest rate increases softened marginally after the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge the previous day. Even so, gold was on track for a fourth straight weekly decline.
Spot gold traded about 1.4% higher in early afternoon trading, at roughly $4,083 per ounce.
Context and implications
Gourinchas' comments underline the endurance of the dollar's centrality across trade invoicing, cross-border banking and reserve holdings, even as protectionist measures and evolving financial instruments alter some aspects of global flows. The observed rise in gold prices, he noted, reflects investor vehicles and private-sector demand rather than a wholesale shift in official reserve strategy.