Spot gold reached a new record high of $5,092.70 per ounce on Monday as investors reacted to a range of geopolitical and economic risks. Analysts are largely unanimous that the precious metal can continue to rise - with some forecasting a move toward $6,000 during the year - supported by persistent central-bank purchases, substantial ETF inflows and steady retail demand for physical bullion.
The metal has rallied strongly this year, gaining more than 17% so far, after a 64% surge in 2025. Sentiment among market participants appears skewed toward further appreciation, reflected in a spectrum of forecasts from industry surveys and private analysts.
The London Bullion Market Association nnual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting a wide range for gold next year, including a high of $7,150 and an average price of $4,742 in 2026. Investment bank forecasts have moved higher as well: Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900. Independent market commentator Ross Norman expects a peak of $6,400 this year and an average price of $5,375.
"The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and thats playing very much into golds hands," Norman said, summarising the prevailing mood among investors who view gold as a hedge against an unpredictable backdrop.
Geopolitical drivers
Analysts point to an array of geopolitical tensions that have helped propel gold higher. These include frictions cited between the U.S. and NATO over Greenland, tariff-related uncertainty, and growing questions about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, among other pressures. Those dynamics are feeding safe-haven flows into the metal.
Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus, highlighted the potential for political volatility to rise further with the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections. "With the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time, persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce portfolio diversification flows into gold," he said. "After crossing the $5,000/ounce milestone, we expect further upside," he added.
Central-bank accumulation remains a core support
Central banks were a major driver of the price gains seen in 2025, and analysts expect this buyer cohort to remain active. Goldman Sachs projects average monthly purchases of 60 metric tons as emerging-market central banks continue to diversify reserves into the metal.
Polands central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, has publicly stated plans to raise reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month. Such declarations reinforce the view that some central banks are seeking to de-dollarise parts of their reserve holdings.
Norman captured that theme succinctly: central banks are "looking to de-dollarise ... and where else could you go except into gold?" He also noted Chinas ongoing purchasing program, with the countrys central bank extending its gold-buying spree for a 14th month in December.
ETF inflows and retail buying
Investment demand via gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a strong support for prices. These funds, which hold physical bullion on behalf of investors, benefited from expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund, explained the relationship between rates and demand: "Theres an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise."
Data from the World Gold Council show record ETF inflows in 2025, driven by North American funds, with annual inflows totalling $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows reached 801 metric tons, the highest since the record set in 2020.
On the retail side, demand for jewellery has softened amid high prices, but appetite for small bars and coins remains strong in important markets such as India. Bar-and-coin purchases are also visible in Europe, even as some retail investors have taken profits.
Frederic Panizzutti, global head of sales at Numismatica Genevensis, described why physical gold appeals to many individual investors: "You dont need to analyse a balance sheet, assess credit risk or worry about a country or sovereign risk. Your only risk with physical gold is the price direction. And as geopolitics and geoeconomics have become more complicated ... that simplicity has become more attractive."
Outlook and vulnerabilities
While the consensus among analysts is for additional upside, several factors could prompt corrections. The article notes three specific triggers that might lead to a pullback: a reversal in U.S. rate-cut expectations, margin calls in equity markets, and a reduction in concerns over the Federal Reserves independence.
Nevertheless, many market participants view any retreat as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a prolonged downtrend. Newman argued that a "meaningful and sustained decline in gold would require a return to a more stable economic and geopolitical backdrop, which currently appears unlikely."
Conclusion
Golds recent record and the near-term trajectory reflect a convergence of geopolitical unease, continued central-bank buying and strong investment flows into ETFs and physical bullion. Analysts' forecasts range from steady appreciation to more aggressive upside, with several viewing dips as entry points. At the same time, observers caution that shifts in rate expectations or a calmer geopolitical environment could temporarily check the rally.