Futures tied to the major U.S. stock averages showed muted moves as traders balanced hopes for a truce in the Middle East with persistent signs that the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile. Markets were also tracking a near-complete halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and were preparing for the March U.S. consumer price index report later in the day.
By 03:27 ET (07:27 GMT), the Dow futures contract was down 60 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had eased by 4 points, or about 0.15, and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely unchanged. The main Wall Street indices had rallied in the previous session after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered his government to begin talks with Lebanon, a development that briefly improved sentiment.
Still, the ceasefire announced earlier in the week between the United States and Iran has not fully removed risk. Israel has continued to strike Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including operations on Friday morning, creating ambiguity around the durability of any pause in hostilities. Iranian officials have signaled that continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah could jeopardize weekend talks with U.S. officials on a broader, protracted peace agreement with Washington. The two sides have also disagreed over whether Lebanon was included in the two-week ceasefire arrangement put in place this week.
Despite the swirl of uncertainty, the prospect of an extended, if uneasy, halt to major combat has helped underpin risk appetite. U.S. stocks have now extended a seven-day winning run, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has returned to positive territory for the year. Outside of geopolitical developments, investor interest in certain technology-linked parts of the market has also been a factor: consumer discretionary stocks were supported after the chief executive of Amazon said the company’s artificial intelligence services at its cloud division are generating more than $15 billion in revenue.
Shipping and energy disruption
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a fraction of normal levels. Reuters reported that traffic through the narrow waterway along Iran’s southern coast was well below 10% of typical volumes on Thursday, despite the ceasefire. Iranian authorities have told vessels that any transit must take place within Iran’s territorial waters while sailing, a demand that has constrained movements of crude and refined products that typically pass through the corridor.
That bottleneck, coupled with separate strikes on energy infrastructure, has been an important driver for traders. Bombardments of Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom’s oil output capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and have reduced throughput on its East-West Pipeline by roughly 700,000 barrels per day, the Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday. Those disruptions, along with the constrained flow through the Strait of Hormuz - which controls roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passage - supported gains in crude.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were last up 1.4% at $97.24 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.4% to $99.25 per barrel.
Even with the recent uptick, the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire has put oil prices on track for their largest weekly decline since June 2025, though crude remains well above levels seen before the start of the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign on Iran that began in late February.
Gold and the dollar
Gold slipped modestly during European trading but was still positioned to record a weekly gain. The yellow metal’s status as a traditional safe-haven asset has not been unambiguous during the Iran-related tensions. Rising oil prices had stoked inflation fears and lifted expectations that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer, a dynamic that can weigh on a non-yielding asset like gold.
Investors have shown a preference for the U.S. dollar in recent trading, reducing gold’s appeal by making it more expensive for overseas purchasers. At the same time, renewed hopes for a more lasting ceasefire have weakened the greenback somewhat over the prior week: a tracker of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies was last weaker by more than 1% over the past one-week period.
Analysts at ING noted these moves and cautioned that current levels reflect optimism. They wrote: "These levels clearly embed plenty of optimism, but another leg lower for USD is on the cards once, or if, a permanent peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume." The ING comment suggests market participants remain attentive to the interplay between geopolitical developments and currency valuation.
U.S. consumer prices in focus
Later in the day, investors and policymakers were set to receive the March gauge of U.S. consumer price growth, a report that could offer immediate insight into how recent Middle East disruptions are feeding through to inflation. Economists widely expect the headline reading to show a sharp acceleration compared with February, a result largely attributed to a surge in gasoline pump prices following the Iran-linked energy shock.
The national average retail gasoline price has climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time in over three years, and diesel costs - which are central to the movement of goods, including food - have risen as well. Those fuel price increases are expected to show up directly in the headline CPI for the month.
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories, are forecast to rise at a more measured pace. Given that distinction between headline and core measures, ING analysts argued the Federal Reserve may not place undue emphasis on the headline figure alone at this stage.
TSMC posts sizable revenue gains
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp reported a pronounced increase in first-quarter revenue, driven by strong demand tied to artificial intelligence applications. The world’s largest contract chipmaker, a key supplier to major AI firms and to a broad range of smartphone and electronics manufacturers, saw its March revenue jump 45.2% year-on-year to T$415.19 billion, equivalent to $13.07 billion.
Month-on-month, revenue rose 30.7% from February. The company’s March revenue was reported as T$1.13 trillion, slightly above Bloomberg estimates of T$1.12 trillion, and represented a step up from T$839.25 billion a year earlier.
For markets monitoring demand for AI-related semiconductors and production ramp rates across multi-tier supply chains, TSMC’s numbers are a near-term indicator of how quickly capital and orders are translating into revenue at the factory gate.
What this means for markets
- Equity futures were subdued as geopolitical fragility and shipping disruptions weighed on sentiment, counterbalancing recent gains in risk appetite.
- Energy markets remain sensitive to constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced Saudi output, contributing to higher crude prices despite a tentative ceasefire.
- Inflation data for March will be closely watched for signs of how the energy shock is translating into consumer prices, with potential implications for monetary policy deliberations.
Investors and market participants are effectively balancing visible improvements in risk tolerance - evidenced by a seven-day advance in U.S. equities - with the possibility of further shocks should the ceasefire unravel or if shipping constraints persist. Sectors most directly affected in the near term include energy, transportation and logistics, consumer goods exposed to fuel price swings, and parts of technology tied to AI demand.
Market participants should monitor developments in the Middle East, shipping reports from the Strait of Hormuz, and the March CPI print for fresh signals on risk appetite and inflation dynamics.