Summary
Airports Council Europe has warned that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is severing key maritime supply lines and could trigger a "systemic" shortage of jet fuel across the continent within 21 days. The organization called on EU authorities to intervene quickly to avoid widespread flight cancellations and major economic disruption during the peak summer travel period.
Supply vulnerability and the call for emergency measures
In a letter, Olivier Jankovec, head of Airports Council International - Europe (ACI-Europe), cautioned that the disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is putting Europe’s jet fuel supply under acute stress. The letter frames jet fuel - rather than crude oil or gas - as the sector's primary concern because of Europe’s heavy dependence on direct maritime imports from refineries in the Middle East.
Jankovec urged EU institutions in Brussels to take immediate emergency steps. His recommendations include organizing collective purchases of jet fuel and identifying alternative supply routes to blunt the impact of interrupted deliveries. The timing is critical: jet fuel typically represents between 20% and 30% of airline operating costs, making fuel access a key determinant of carrier viability through the summer season.
Why jet fuel is more exposed than other energy supplies
According to the communication, the EU Energy Union Task Force considers there to be "no immediate risk" for crude oil and natural gas, citing the diversity of pipeline sources feeding the continent. Jet fuel, by contrast, is more exposed because it is largely delivered by tanker from Middle Eastern refineries. That maritime dependence leaves jet fuel deliveries more vulnerable to interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz than pipeline-based commodities.
Timing and potential operational impact
The letter warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened within the next 21 days - with Islamabad peace talks described as being in a "make-or-break" phase - the resulting shortage could force mass cancellations at major European hubs such as Heathrow, Frankfurt, and Schiphol just as the peak tourism season begins.
While the EU has not formally said that it needs to release additional strategic oil stocks at this point, market participants are already reflecting a refining premium into prices. Global jet fuel cracks - the margin between crude and the refined product - have risen to multi-month highs this week, indicating tighter refined product markets.
Operational frictions even if hostilities subside
The correspondence notes that even a halt to open conflict might not immediately restore normal deliveries. Haphazard mining of the Strait could mean that specialized fuel tankers face prolonged delays before routinely resuming voyages, prolonging supply constraints.
Analysts at Wolfe Research are cited as saying a sustained shortage would affect both passenger operations and the global air cargo market, which runs on a just-in-time model and is already adjusting to shifts in labor toward AI-focused logistics roles. Smaller European carriers, many of which are unhedged against "Hormuz risk," may be particularly exposed.
Outlook over the coming weeks
ACI-Europe frames the next three weeks as decisive: the industry will either see a manageable spike in fuel prices or slide into a broader operational paralysis that could disrupt travel and cargo flows across Europe. The letter seeks to prompt a coordinated response from Brussels to mitigate the chance of large-scale cancellations and the associated economic fallout.