Days after Iran began striking targets across the United Arab Emirates in March, Dubai’s senior officials brought together hundreds of business leaders in a large private gathering to discuss how the city could limit the economic fallout. The meeting - notable for its scale and timing - helped drive a set of follow-up measures, including a central bank liquidity package, according to five people who attended and who spoke on condition of anonymity because the session was private.
Organisers posed three direct questions to attendees: what steps would encourage tourists to return; what actions would bring investors back; and how could the government best support their companies, two participants said. Dubai’s crown prince circulated among tables during the meeting, soliciting input from business chiefs and financiers.
Since that March gathering, Dubai has announced support measures totaling 2.5 billion dirhams ($681 million), focused principally on sectors that bore the acute impact of the conflict, such as tourism and retail. The central bank also unveiled a relief package on March 17 intended to safeguard the banking system and preserve liquidity, backed by more than $270 billion in foreign exchange reserves, officials told attendees.
While a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal has reduced the immediate threat of intermittent strikes, business leaders and analysts say confidence in Dubai as a tourism and financial hub may recover only gradually and could require additional, targeted incentives to restore investor appetite, a view expressed by six company executives and analysts who spoke with the same caveat of anonymity.
"Investors want signals on how authorities will respond if tensions return, not just how they managed the last shock," said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, reflecting concerns that capital will be sensitive to future volatility almost four months after the conflict began.
The March 10 meeting, which took place as shelter alerts and lockdowns were imposed across parts of the UAE, sent an early public and private signal of leadership intent to prevent an exodus of businesses, investors and expatriates. Hosted by Helal Saeed Al Marri, director general of the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET), the session included participation from Dubai’s crown prince, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum.
Those present at the newly renovated Meydan hotel included notable figures such as real-estate magnate Hussein Sajwani and Emirates airline president Tim Clark, alongside representatives of global financial houses cited by attendees, and large UAE family-owned groups and the country’s military. Organisers told the assembled group that fiscal and financial support would be forthcoming and that teams were working to stabilise supply chains, according to participants.
Following the meeting, several investor conference calls were arranged by banks, attendees said. Executives at the financial institutions named declined to comment, and some companies approached for comment did not respond.
The Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism said in emailed comments that it and other entities maintain regular engagement with a broad range of stakeholders as part of an established public-private collaboration model. The DET added that while recent months had seen political instability in the region, those conditions had underscored the city’s resilient economic foundations and its ability to absorb shocks, and reiterated Dubai’s commitment to its long-term strategic objectives.
On the streets of Dubai last week, large billboards have appeared carrying a new slogan that government officials describe as a nod to the emirate’s history of delivering ambitious projects swiftly and a public signal of continued intent to pursue development and recovery.
With oil accounting for less than 2% of Dubai’s GDP, the emirate’s model has long relied on attracting international corporates, global banks, hedge funds and wealthy individuals. Its time zone, access to Gulf sovereign wealth funds and favourable tax environment have been major draws for capital and jobs. That positioning is precisely what analysts say made Dubai a strategic target during the regional tensions, with potential to unsettle international finance.
Analysts at one global bank have cut their 2026 growth forecast for the Gulf by 5 percentage points since the conflict began and now expect the region to contract for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. The same analysts said non-oil growth in Dubai and Abu Dhabi could fall by 8 percentage points or more year-on-year.
"March and the entire second quarter have been lost," said the CEO of a UAE investment firm, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the topic. Several business leaders said recovery will likely be uneven across sectors, with some activities adapting more quickly than others.
Signs of partial rebound have emerged - restaurant bookings are rising and flights have mostly resumed - but hotel occupancy has tumbled and trade routes are shifting. Some cargo that previously transited through Dubai is increasingly being routed via Oman and Saudi Arabia to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing traditional transit points.
Analysts and business owners suggested new targeted support may be needed for exposed sectors. Proposed ideas put forward by private-sector participants included instructing banks to lift lending to tourism operators and small and medium-sized enterprises, temporary corporate tax removal or rebates, and government partnership with global private equity to invest in local assets and companies to underpin prices and reduce perceived risk.
Movements of international capital underscore the economic strain. Foreign investor flows on the Dubai Financial Market swung from a net inflow position of $890 million year-to-date on February 26 - two days before the initial strikes - to net outflows of $853 million by June 12, reflecting shifts in investor sentiment during the period of hostilities.
To protect the banking sector, the UAE central bank’s March 17 relief package sits alongside reserves that provided a significant buffer. The 2.5 billion dirhams of support committed to date is smaller than the pandemic-era support of approximately $1.93 billion and represents a fraction of Dubai’s most recent annual real GDP figure of $121 billion.
Longer-term infrastructure and investment commitments have also been signalled, including a proposed $9.3 billion metro line, up to $15 billion in potential contracts tied to an airport expansion, and plans from a major developer for a new $55 billion project. Those pledges are part of a broader effort to maintain momentum on construction and strategic projects despite near-term disruptions.
Observers said that Iran’s strikes created acute economic pressure in part because of Dubai’s large expatriate population and the emirate’s reliance on open financial and trade links. Nonetheless, many in the market continue to view the underlying economy as resilient.
Quilliam said the peace deal was a positive step, but that investors would be watching whether stability persisted or uncertainty lingered. "If stability persists, capital will return. If uncertainty lingers, they will hold back," he said.
As Dubai seeks to reassert itself, officials and private-sector leaders face the task of converting short-term relief into durable confidence measures that reassure tourists, investors and corporate tenants about the emirate’s ability to withstand renewed shocks.