A new analysis from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) indicates Canada is falling short of its federally backed child-care expansion goals as the five-year timeline nears completion. The national plan, aimed at reducing child-care fees to $10 a day, set a target for provinces to add more than 284,000 licensed spaces by March 31, 2026. According to the CCPA, as of six months before that deadline, provinces had created 194,000 new spaces.
The report highlights a notable shift in where new capacity has been built. While the federal framework prioritized growth in the public and non-profit sectors to support affordability and quality, 57% of the spaces added since 2022 have been in for-profit child-care centres. The CCPA warns that continuing on this trajectory risks entrenching a system that is "more expensive than it needs to be, with lower quality."
That mismatch between policy intention and on-the-ground delivery contributes to a persistent divide between political messaging and family experience. The CCPA underscores that government statements celebrating milestones do not always reflect what parents encounter locally. Only two jurisdictions - Prince Edward Island and Quebec - have reached the federal benchmark of 5.9 spaces for every 10 children.
Several provinces are lagging substantially. The CCPA points to Alberta and Manitoba as examples of jurisdictions that have fallen well behind the agreed expansion pace, producing pockets the report describes as "child care deserts" with very limited licensed capacity. In Manitoba, the report finds 46% of children live in areas where there are fewer than three licensed spaces per 10 children.
With the program entering its second half-decade, the CCPA says federal and provincial governments face mounting pressure to accelerate efforts to create the promised capacity. The advocacy group calls for renewed emphasis on adding high-quality, low-fee spaces in the non-profit and public sectors to meet new demand and align outcomes with the policy's original goals.
Summary
The CCPA report shows Canada is likely to miss its five-year child-care expansion target by about 90,000 spaces. Most new spots created since 2022 are in for-profit centres rather than the prioritized public and non-profit sectors. Only Prince Edward Island and Quebec have met the federal targets, while provinces such as Alberta and Manitoba trail significantly.
Key points
- Provinces agreed to add over 284,000 licensed child-care spaces by March 31, 2026; 194,000 were created six months before that deadline - Sector impact: public and non-profit child-care providers, provincial governments.
- Since 2022, 57% of new spots have been in for-profit centres, contrary to federal prioritization of public-sector expansion - Sector impact: for-profit child-care industry and family affordability.
- Only Prince Edward Island and Quebec have reached the federal goal of 5.9 spaces per 10 children; significant shortages remain in provinces like Alberta and Manitoba - Sector impact: families and local service availability.
Risks and uncertainties
- If expansion continues to favour for-profit providers, the CCPA warns the system could be locked into higher costs and lower quality - Market impact: affordability pressure for families and potential shifts in demand between non-profit and for-profit providers.
- Large shortfalls in targeted capacity - the report estimates about a 90,000-space gap - create uncertainty about whether federal and provincial governments can meet the agreed targets by March 31, 2026 - Sector impact: provincial policy delivery and public-sector planning.
- Regions described as "child care deserts," such as parts of Manitoba where 46% of children live in areas with fewer than three licensed spaces per 10 children, raise concerns about access and uneven geographic distribution of services - Economic impact: localized strain on families and service networks.