The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is poised to maintain its current interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, signaling guarded optimism that Japan's economy will continue on a path of moderate recovery, a trajectory that would support gradual increases in borrowing costs over time. The bank's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is expected to offer minimal indications concerning the timing of potential future rate hikes, as recent market turbulence complicates decision-making.
This market volatility follows Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's announcement of a snap general election scheduled for the coming month, injecting uncertainty into monetary policy direction. The BOJ faces a delicate balancing act: it aims to deter speculative pressure against the yen through assertive communication while avoiding further surges in government bond yields, which have been fueled by concerns over expansive fiscal measures planned by Takaichi's administration.
Last month's policy meeting saw the BOJ raise its key interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level reached in three decades. The outcome of the current two-day meeting is expected to be announced between 12:30 p.m. and 2 p.m. local time (03:30 to 05:00 GMT).
According to sources familiar with internal discussions, the BOJ plans to revise upward its economic growth projections for the fiscal year starting in April within its forthcoming quarterly outlook report. However, it will likely continue to express confidence that the economy is on course for modest expansion. The central bank is anticipated to reaffirm its commitment to incrementally increase rates, contingent on economic and price developments aligning with its forecasts.
Market participants, currently anticipating no immediate change to policy settings, will scrutinize Governor Ueda's press conference scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (06:30 GMT) for insights on how the recent depreciation of the yen may influence the bank's approach to future rate adjustments. The yen's weakening trend has inflationary implications by increasing the cost of imported goods, thereby potentially accelerating price pressures within the domestic economy.
Kei Fujimoto, a senior economist at SuMi Trust, noted that despite the December rate increase, the yen has continued to lose value rapidly. This trend might expedite the transmission of higher import prices to Japanese consumers. Fujimoto anticipates that the BOJ may need to quicken the pace of interest rate hikes, suggesting the likelihood of two increases within the year.
Japan's economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of external shocks such as U.S. tariffs and is expected to benefit from Prime Minister Takaichi's stimulus package. This plan prioritizes measures designed to alleviate the strain of rising living costs on households.
Nevertheless, the administration's intention to enhance fiscal expansion and temporarily suspend the 8% sales tax on food items has heightened fears of increased government borrowing. This has contributed to a sharp rise in bond yields, posing a risk to economic growth.
The prolonged weakness of the yen has maintained elevated food prices longer than initially projected, which may prompt businesses to pass on costs through further price increases in the near term. The surge in yields has drawn attention to the BOJ's ongoing quantitative tightening strategy, whereby the bank has been methodically tapering its bond-buying operations to reduce its sizable asset holdings amassed during years of stimulus aimed at combating deflation.
Some market analysts suggest the BOJ might consider pausing this tapering process or executing emergency bond purchases to mitigate extreme market disruptions. However, immediate implementation of such measures appears unlikely, as increasing bond purchases would conflict with the central bank's objective of gradually withdrawing stimulus as inflation moves closer to its 2% target.
Since the start of 2024, the BOJ has shifted its policy stance by raising interest rates multiple times and reducing bond purchases, reflecting its assessment that Japan is nearing a sustained achievement of its inflation goal.