Yancoal Q4 2025 Earnings Call - Record Coal Production and Strong Financial Position Enable Growth Potential

Maggie, Conference Operator: Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Yancoal Fourth Quarter 2025 production report. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After this speaker’s presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you’ll need to press star 11 on your telephone or submit a written question via the webcast. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again for the audio. Please be advised today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Maggie, and thank you to everyone on the call for joining this briefing on Yancoal’s Fourth Quarter production report for 2025. We have several members of Yancoal’s executive leadership team to recap the quarter and participate in the question-and-answer session. On the call, we have Sharif Farah, Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Laura Zhang, Company Secretary and Chief Legal, Compliance, and Corporate Affairs Officer, Frank Fulham, Chief Sustainability, Technology, Innovation, and Development Officer, David Bennett, EGM Operations, Mark Salem, EGM Marketing and Logistics, Mike Wells, EGM Finance, and Mark Jacobs, EGM Environment and External Affairs. The commentary provided today is based on the quarterly production report published to the Australian Securities Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong platforms on the 19th of January. There is no presentation pack for this conference call.

The Yancoal website holds past presentations for any participants who require additional information on the company. I’ll hand over to our CEO, Sharif Farah, to provide the Fourth Quarter highlights.

Sharif Farah, Chief Executive Officer, Yancoal: Thanks, Brendan. I also welcome everyone joining us on today’s conference call. We had a great quarter. In fact, the 10.4 million tons of attributable saleable coal was a company record. The fourth quarter production carried us to the top of our annual production guidance range, and the 38.6 million tons for 2025 was also a company record. This was a tremendous effort, and I congratulate all of our people for their role in this achievement. All of our mines contributed to total ROM coal production, which increased 20% compared to the third quarter. As usual, we don’t include cash operating costs per ton in the quarterly report. At the half-year, our cash operating costs were AUD 93 per ton, in the middle of our AUD 89-AUD 97 per ton guidance range.

Consistent with our commentary in October, for the full year, we expect to deliver unit costs around the middle of the guidance range. Previously, we disclosed our expectation for capital expenditure within the guidance range. We now anticipate it will be towards the bottom end of the AUD 750 million-AUD 900 million guidance range. During the fourth quarter of 2025, international coal indices for both the thermal and metallurgical coal markets had mixed performances, yet our average realized prices improved by 6% to AUD 148 per ton from the prior quarter. This realized price, combined with 10.8 million tons of attributable sales and our disciplined approach to costs, delivered a AUD 307 million increase to our cash balance over the quarter. We now have over AUD 2 billion on the balance sheet and no debt. This gives us scope to consider dividends and to contemplate potential value-adding growth opportunities.

We look forward to carrying our positive operational momentum into 2026. We will provide our 2026 guidance on production, cash operating costs, and capital expenditure in our 2025 financial results, which are scheduled to be released on the 25th of February. I’ll now hand over to other members of our executive team to share further details from the fourth quarter, starting with David Bennett, our Executive General Manager of Operations.

David Bennett, Executive General Manager of Operations, Yancoal: Thanks, Sharif. Our total recordable injury frequency rate reduced throughout 2025, and it was 6.14 at the end of the year. We achieved a downward trend in this statistic, and our rate is below the industry-weighted average of 7.45. We remain committed to further improving our safety performance. During the quarter, we produced 18.9 million tons of ROM coal, 20% more than the third quarter. From our ROM coal, we produced 13.6 million tons of saleable coal, 11% more than the third quarter. It takes all our people across all our mines working cohesively to deliver this level of performance. There were some temporary challenges, such as hard coal encountered by the Moolarben longwall, some wet weather delays, and some equipment reliability issues. However, in each case, the issues were resolved or effective adaptations were applied. Our attributable share of the saleable coal was 10.4 million tons.

As Sharif mentioned, this was a record performance. In the report, we explain how the 10.4 million tons includes the additional 3.75% interest in the Moolarben joint venture, which we secured on the 3rd of October. If this additional interest was excluded, the figure would have been 10.2 million tons, which still would have equaled our best-ever historical quarter. I will now hand over to Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, to provide commentary on the coal markets.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thanks, David. This is Brendan. We do have Mark Salem, our EGM Marketing and Logistics, online for the Q&A. However, I’ll present the initial comments on his behalf regarding the coal market. Our attributable sales volume of 10.8 million tons was similar to the third quarter and followed our strategy of optimizing sales volumes and managing stock positions. The sales volume contained a typical mix of thermal and metallurgical coal products. During the quarter, conditions in the international coal markets, both thermal and metallurgical, remained somewhat challenging. There were mixed performances across the indices we sell against. The average price on the API 5 index was 12% higher than in the third quarter, while the average price on the GC Newcastle index was flat. That said, it was the GC Newcastle index that finished the quarter with positive momentum. There was a similar situation for our metallurgical coal products.

The average price on the Platts Low Vol PCI index was down 2%, but the average price on the Platts Semi-Soft index was up 10%. In the thermal coal market, Japan is still utilizing coal as a fuel of choice for power generation, and its imports increased 16% in 2005. South Korea also increased its imports but prioritized Indonesian and Colombian supply over Australian coal. Elsewhere, demand for thermal coal was less resilient. Despite a restock cycle in China during the fourth quarter, its annual imports fell 18% through the year due to a strong domestic production level in the first half. Taiwan utilized more gas and imported 12% less coal than last year, and India reduced demand for coal imports due to cooler weather through summer and increased hydro power generation.

Supply from Australia was constrained at times during 2025, but as our performance shows, there are still good export rates being achieved. Indonesia’s exports fell 10%, and Colombia’s exports fell 18% in response to market conditions and due to some infrastructure challenges. But Russian exports continue to reach international markets, and improved rail and port operations in South Africa enabled its exports to increase by 5%. A demand uplift may be needed for thermal coal indices to break upward from the trading ranges observed over the past six to 12 months. Global demand for metallurgical coal declined, as steel production decreased in many countries. The primary driver of this situation was Chinese steel exports displacing production from other steel production nations. In seaborne metallurgical coal markets, global exports were down 7% compared to 2024.

A primary component of the global reduction was 9% lower exports from Australia due to a temporary mix of temporary and structural reductions, including mine suspensions and some rain delays. Exports from Canada were down 3% due to reduced coal handling capacity following a ship fire at an export terminal. Sharif mentioned the 6% increase in our average realized price to AUD 148 per ton. This combines a 6% increase in our average thermal price to AUD 138 per ton and a 4% increase in our average metallurgical coal price to AUD 203 per ton. Having made all these comments, gains in most coal price indices since the end of 2025 are stoking optimism among some industry participants. We continue to utilize our scale and blending capabilities to maximize the realized prices we can deliver.

I will now hand over to Kevin Su, our CFO, to touch on the financial position.

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Thanks, Brendan. The key observation is the same that we made last quarter. Yancoal remains in a strong financial position. We ended the quarter with over AUD 2 billion in the bank and remained free of interest-bearing debt. When we last spoke with you, we discussed the external and temporary cost pressures at the Port of Newcastle. The ship queue at the port has now gone and within most of those temporary cost pressures. Sharif described how we are still on track to deliver operating costs around the middle of the guidance range. We would see this as a notable achievement in the current industry setting. It reinforces our position as a leading low-cost coal exporter. David and the operation teams delivered the production records, which allowed Mark and the marketing team to maximize sales and blending opportunities.

Adding over AUD 300 million to our balance sheet in just three months speaks to the quality of our assets. Our strengthening financial position enables us to consider dividends and to contemplate potential value-adding growth opportunities. We’ll be better placed to provide a further capital management commentary when we release our 2025 financial results. I’ll now hand over back to Brendan to coordinate the Q&A session.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thanks, Kevin, and also David and Sharif for highlighting the drivers of our record fourth quarter performance. We’ll now move on to the question and answer session, starting with questions from the phone, then moving to questions submitted via the webcast. Maggie, could you please initiate the process for questions via the phone?

Maggie, Conference Operator: Thank you, Brendan. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. I’ll repeat. To ask a question on the audio, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again or submit a written question via the webcast. Please stand by as we compile the Q&A roster. Hi, Brendan. So far, we don’t have any questions on the audio.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thanks, Maggie. I’ll take questions from the webcast, and I’ll come back to you shortly. Let’s start with some questions about the operational performance. There’s a multi-component question. I’ll take it in pieces, starting with the question: the current Yancoal stockpiles and inventory levels, how are they looking? And is the company back to matching production volumes with sales volumes given the various disruptions at Newcastle through the middle of the year?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Thanks, Brendan. Yeah, look, sales and production are back to normal and are matched. We had a very, very good quarter, a strong production quarter, and also a good sales quarter and moving forward, the intention is for those to be matched.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you. There’s an additional component talking about New South Wales production and asking a question about coal royalties, given that the royalties were revised and new royalties were implemented a year and a half ago. Is there any comment on the current royalty structure and how we view that part of our business?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Yeah, thanks, Brendan. Again, we’ve had no discussions regarding New South Wales coal royalties and are currently unaware of any changes.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Also on the operational side, the Hunter Valley Operations, can we comment on the production profile and its uplift in the fourth quarter and how it’s running in relation to what we would see as the normalized levels?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Thanks, Brendan. David, you may want to comment on Hunter Valley Operations, but again, just reinforcing they did have a very strong fourth quarter.

David Bennett, Executive General Manager of Operations, Yancoal: Yeah, I’ll cover that, Sharif. Yeah, look, it was a very strong fourth quarter. Hunter Valley Operations, as well as Mount Thorley Warkworth earlier in the year, had quite a bit of wet weather. So at the halfway point of the year, both sides were a little bit behind their production target for 2025. We got more wet weather in August, but we were able to mitigate the effects of that wet weather through the capital investment that we’d made in prior years. And we also saw some really good performance from our equipment fleets, our productivities. We set some remarkable records on some of our fleets for their output. And on the back of that, we’re able to deliver our budgeted coal production for 2025. So the mines are being operated in steady state.

They’re productive, and we’re getting the most that we can from our people assets, our equipment assets, and our geological assets. Thanks, Sharif.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, David. Let’s segue from the production into the coal markets. Mark Salem, I presented comments on your behalf. Could you provide any additional thoughts on the coal market outlook, what we’ve seen so far this year, and what potentially will be driving coal markets over the current calendar year?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Yeah, sure. Thanks, Brendan, and thanks for reading my section. As you know, I’m traveling in rural areas, and I was a bit worried about service, so I appreciate you stepping up to read that section, and as long as people can hear me clearly. In terms of the market, we did see some price recovery towards in Q4, towards the end of the year, and that was on the back of, as you said, China restocking, but we’ve since seen that price come down a little, not substantially, just a little bit, and this is nothing unusual coming into Chinese New Year and the Chinese buying slowing down a little bit.

Coming out of Chinese New Year, I think we are anticipating that the market will again pick up a little bit in that high-ash area because there still remains a need in southern China for the demand for the coal. From a met coal point of view, we have had a couple of supply disruptions. And if those supply disruptions come through, that could yield a softening in the market. And we really need the steel industry to pick up, which has been in a slightly weakened situation due to the collapse of the property market in China. So in terms of going in from 2025 into 2026, probably a very similar scenario. The current pricing and world demand is really supply-driven, and we need just stronger demand to really have a bigger impact into that market.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Mark. Maggie, could I please ask you to invite people once more for the online, sorry, the audio question channel?

Maggie, Conference Operator: Of course. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad. This will be the last time that you have questions. Just one moment for our first question, please.

Hi, Brendan. Can you hear me?

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Yes, Anna, we can hear you.

Yeah. Hello. This is Hannah from Morgan Stanley. I just have one quick question on the saleable production. So I noticed the ROM coal production reached a new high, but the saleable coal production to the ROM coal production, the percentage has declined to 72% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and I think the ratio is lower for the Moolarben and Hunter Valley. Can we understand the reason behind this low ratio for the saleable coal production to ROM coal production?

Okay, Hannah. I appreciate the question. As I can see, looking at the fourth quarter numbers, our total ROM coal production was about 20% compared to the prior quarter, but the saleable coal production was up 11%, suggesting a slightly lower conversion. So perhaps David Bennett could offer some insights into the relative balance between ROM coal and saleable coal volumes over the fourth quarter. I suspect it’s probably to do with more ROM coal being prioritized. But David, over to you.

David Bennett, Executive General Manager of Operations, Yancoal: Yeah, thanks, Brendan, and thanks, Hannah, for your question. Brendan’s point there is exactly right. There was a lot more ROM coal that came out of the mines in the fourth quarter, and we’re unable to process 100% of that coal through the CHPPs, our coal handling plants. So the coal that we couldn’t process in the fourth quarter, turning it from ROM coal into saleable coal, sits on our stockpiles just ahead of the CHPPs. And we will process that coal and turn it into saleable product throughout the first quarter of 2026. Thank you.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, David.

I see. Very clear. Thank you.

Thank you, Hannah. I’ll move back to the webcast questions. There’s a few questions all touching on a similar topic. It’s the focus on our over AUD 2 billion cash balance reported and interest in understanding what that might mean for dividends and payout ratios heading into the financial results in February. What could we possibly say on this topic ahead of the financial results next month?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Thanks, Brendan. Look, to start with, we do have a dividend framework in our company constitution, the usual practice being for the board to review the final position after the end of the year and then determine the capacity for dividend allocation. Kevin, you may have some additional comments you want to make in that regard.

So, Sharif, I think the framework Sharif just mentioned is very, I think very clearly communicated with all the investors in the past, which is about a 50% NPAT or 50% free cash flow, whichever is higher, and also balancing the debt management, growth opportunities. I think companies still follow the same guideline internally. From a management perspective, we will definitely balance all these different priorities and make a decision at board level in February. Thanks.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Kevin. Thank you, Sharif. There were several questions on that topic. I think we’ve covered the main focus of those questions through that combined response. Maggie, I’ll go to you one last time for questions from the phone line. While doing that, let people know that I’ve exhausted the questions on the webcast. Oh, no, sorry. Excuse me. There were some additional further down the screen that I hadn’t seen. Let’s have a look at these ones. Okay. We’re focusing in on the financial performance and the cash balance and cash generation that was reported. When adjusting for the AUD 25 million Moolarben payment, that was the additional 3.75% interest. The free cash flow adjusts to AUD 332 million, which annualizes to AUD 1.3 billion, an implied yield of 18%. How should investors be thinking about capital management given the free cash flow generation?

So you’ve somewhat covered the capital management component, but perhaps just worth testing that thought process on how the numbers are flowing through the AUD 307 million increase in the cash balance, the Moolarben payment, and the implied annualized free cash flow. Kevin, could I start with you to share some thoughts on what we reported in the fourth quarter in terms of the AUD 307 million increase in the cash balance and recognizing how that might or might not be relevant to an annualized number?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Yep. I think from the previous communication, one thing we would have to appreciate is the realized price versus the price curve. There’s a lagging effect, and there’s some timing difference we should consider. At the same time, normally, Q4 is a strong, it’s been quite a strong quarter, and providing more volume from the shipment perspective as well. They all contributed to quite a healthy cash flow. But overall, as Sharif just mentioned, the whole objective from a measurement perspective is to be very cost competitive compared with our peers. We are still to be the lowest cost competitive coal producer in the country. For that reason, even in an unfavorable coal price market, I think Yancoal is still generating, generally speaking, very healthy cash flow compared with our peers.

Back to the capital management philosophy we just mentioned, we will be assessing the free cash flow on a four-year basis, balancing the other priorities, and follow the guidance internally. Also externally, we’ve been communicating and decide our dividend management decision by February board meeting. Thanks.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Kevin. We’ve got a hypothetical question related to coal markets. So I suspect Mark Salem, this will be one that we call on your expertise. It relates to the U.S. market, and the observation is currently the U.S. exports coal into the global market, but there is speculation with AI-driven power demand levels increasing. Is there a potential for the U.S. to need coal imports to meet power demand? Is my understanding of the question? Is there a scenario where Australian coal could be imported into the U.S., and is there any historical precedent for such a market setting? Mark Salem, could you share your thoughts on the coal markets and, in particular, swings in U.S. exports and imports?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Sure, sure. Look, I suppose very simply, Australia has not supplied coal into mainland USA, and I say that because Australia was a supplier into Hawaii, a coal-fired power station in Hawaii many years ago, but Australia is not a supplier. The U.S. is the second largest coal producer themselves, and they still have a lot of resources and a lot of surplus. They’ve always been known in the international seaborne market as the swing supplier. When coal prices are high, you often see U.S. coal come into the international seaborne market. When prices are low, they withdraw and keep their production domestically, so they’re not one for importing, so the U.S. is not really on our radar as a future coal import market in terms of mainland USA. We do sell coal into South America and some of the South American markets as well.

Just in terms of AI, yeah, there is growing demand for electricity consumption in AI in Asian countries, in our more geographically located markets. So that is something we’re monitoring very closely and something we do watch in that regard. So yeah.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Mark. Looking at the questions coming through, we’ve got another one that’s definitely more hypothetical in nature. Given recent media commentary suggesting the potential of a Glencore Rio merger or acquisition of some sort, the question seeks to clarify our Hunter Valley Operations, which are a joint venture with Glencore. Is that joint venture or that operation subject to any change of control clauses or relevant agreements that might be triggered under such a hypothetical scenario?

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Yeah, thanks, Brendan. Look, I won’t be commenting on market hypotheticals at this stage. I think we’re all reading the press, and it’s too early to form any view as to the merit of anything of this nature at this point in time.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Fair enough. Thank you very much, Sharif. We’ll come back to the market as and when something concrete requires a comment from us in relation to our specific joint venture operations or joint venture at Hunter Valley Operations. I’ve now concluded all the questions on the webcast, having scrolled down and found them all in the second setting. Maggie, I’ll come back to you one last time for questions via the phone line. During that time, if any questions appear on the webcast, I’ll take those. Otherwise, we’ll be shortly moving to close out the webcast. Maggie, could you do online questions once more?

Maggie, Conference Operator: Thank you. Just a reminder to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone keypad. This will be the last time announcing for questions on the audio. Thanks, Brendan. I think I’ll pass back to you now.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Maggie. Confirming I see no fresh questions on the webcast. I’ll pass back to Sharif one last time for the closing comments.

Kevin Su, Chief Financial Officer, Yancoal: Thank you, Brendan, and thank you once again to everyone who joined us on the call. I look forward to engaging with you in just over a month when we deliver our 2025 financial results. As we reflect on the production records and the robust financial position we reported, there are three things I hope you’ll keep front of mind. Firstly, Yancoal delivered the production records because we have world-class assets run by some of the most capable people in the industry. This is something I firmly believe. The level of production we delivered through 2025 required sustained dedication from all of our workforce. Secondly, Yancoal is highly disciplined on cost control. In our view, keeping unit costs flat compared to last year and delivering cash operating costs around the middle of guidance would be a great outcome in the current industry setting.

We see our ability to operate with comparably low cash costs as a distinct competitive advantage, and thirdly, Yancoal increased its cash position by more than AUD 300 million in three months. This is a distinct reminder that we’re not only a low-cost miner, but that our position as the second largest coal producer in Australia provides great leverage to improving coal prices. We look forward to speaking with you all again in February following the release of our 2025 financial results. Have a great day.

Brendan Fitzpatrick, Investor Relations Manager, Yancoal: Thank you, Sharif. Maggie, could you please conclude the webcast?

Maggie, Conference Operator: Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.