QCR Holdings Q4 2025 Earnings Call - Record 2025 Fueled by NIM Expansion, LIHTC Growth and Strategic Loan Sales
Summary
QCR delivered a record 2025, driven by net interest margin expansion, strong loan and deposit growth, and outsized contribution from LIHTC lending and wealth management. Adjusted net income was $37 million, or $2.21 per diluted share in Q4 and $130 million, or $7.64 for the year, with NIM up sequentially and a $65 million year of capital markets revenue beating guidance.
Management is explicitly balancing growth with capital management. They completed a $285 million LIHTC construction loan sale late in Q4 to free up capacity and retire expensive FHLB advances, plan a $300 million-$350 million Freddie Mac perm securitization by mid-2026, and are guiding $55 million-$70 million of capital markets revenue over the next four quarters while keeping an eye on seasonality in Q1.
Key Takeaways
- QCR reported record adjusted net income of $37.0 million ($2.21 per diluted share) in Q4 and $130.0 million ($7.64 per diluted share) for full-year 2025.
- Net interest income was the primary earnings driver, rising on average earning asset growth and net interest margin expansion; NIM to tax equivalent yield rose 6 basis points sequentially in Q4 and has expanded 32 bps over the past seven quarters.
- Capital markets revenue totaled $25 million in Q4 and $65 million for 2025, above the prior $50-$60 million target; management now guides $55 million-$70 million over the next four quarters.
- LIHTC platform acceleration: management sold $285 million of LIHTC construction loans at par on December 22, 2025, to a third-party investor, freeing regulatory capital, expanding capacity for permanent lending, and enabling retirement of higher cost FHLB term debt.
- Perm securitization targeted: QCR expects a $300 million-$350 million Freddie Mac permanent loan securitization prior to June 30, 2026, though Freddie Mac program changes are slowing timelines.
- Loan growth guidance: gross loan growth is guided to 8%-10% annualized in Q1 2026, with acceleration to 10%-15% annualized for the remainder of the year, and a full-year target roughly 12% (backloaded).
- Deposit progress: core deposits grew, average balances up materially quarter to quarter, non-interest-bearing deposits at about 13% of total deposits and management aims to move that toward high teens or ~20 over time; brokered deposits reduced roughly $120 million during 2025.
- Balance sheet funding tilt provides rate sensitivity upside, with rate-sensitive liabilities exceeding rate-sensitive assets by approximately $700 million, implying estimated NIM accretion of 1-2 bps per 25 bps Fed cut, depending on curve shape.
- Non-interest expense guidance for Q1 2026 is $55 million-$58 million, with digital transformation and staffing driving roughly $4 million of incremental digital spend and about $4 million in salary/benefit increases; management still targets non-interest expense growth below 5% under the 9-6-5 framework.
- Efficiency and operating leverage: adjusted core efficiency ratio was 56.8% in Q4, management expects meaningful efficiency gains long term, but not until digital conversions complete and scale builds, with tangible improvement targeted more in 2027-2028.
- Asset quality remains strong, NPAs to assets at 0.45%, total criticized loans down to 1.94% of loans, lowest since mid-2022, and allowance for credit losses at 1.26% of loans held for investment, with a year-end provision build to bolster reserves.
- Share repurchases remain opportunistic, $13 million repurchased in Q4 (~163,000 shares), nearly $22 million for the year (~279,000 shares), and more than 310,000 shares repurchased total under the current program at a weighted average price of about $78.
- Wealth management contributed meaningfully, adding nearly 500 relationships in 2025 and over $1 billion AUM, producing $5 million revenue in Q4 and 11% revenue growth for the year, providing diversification beyond interest income.
- Capital ratios improved with CET1 at 10.52% and total risk-based capital at 14.19% at quarter end, tangible common equity to tangible assets rose to 10.24%, and tangible book value per share jumped $2.08 in the quarter to about $58.
- Seasonality caveat: management stressed Q1 is historically the slowest quarter for affordable housing capital markets activity, five-year Q1 average about $11 million, so modelers should not expect another Q4-level capital markets quarter in Q1 2026.
Full Transcript
Conference Call Moderator: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for QCR Holdings, Inc.’s fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Following the close of the market yesterday, the company issued its earnings press release. If anyone joining us today has not yet received a copy, it is available on the company’s website, www.qcrh.com. With us today for management are Todd Gipple, President and CEO, and Nick Anderson, CFO. Management will provide a summary of the financial results, and then we will open the call to questions from analysts. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the information management will be providing today falls under the guidelines of forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
As part of these guidelines, any statements made during this call concerning the company’s hopes, beliefs, expectations, and predictions of the future are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Additional information on these factors is included in the company’s SEC filings, which are available on the company’s website. Additionally, management may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are intended to supplement, but not substitute, for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the website contains the financial and other quantitative information to be discussed today, as well as the reconciliation of the GAAP and non-GAAP measures. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay through February 4, 2026, starting this afternoon, approximately one hour after the completion of this call. It will be accessible on the company’s website.
At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Todd Gipple at QCR Holdings. You may begin.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I’d like to start with an overview of our fourth quarter and full year 2025 performance, followed by some additional color on our business. Nick will then walk us through the financial results in more detail. We delivered our strongest quarter of the year in the fourth quarter and produced record full-year results. Performance was strong across all key operating metrics, approaching or exceeding the upper end of our guidance ranges for net interest margin expansion, gross loan growth, and capital markets revenue. I am very proud of our 1,000 teammates for their hard work, providing exceptional service to our clients, growing all parts of our business by creating new client relationships, taking exceptional care of the communities in which we live and work, and generating superior returns for our shareholders.
Their work not only produced record earnings in 2025 but also sets the foundation for continued momentum in 2026. Our exceptional earnings were driven by significant contributions from net interest margin expansion and robust loan and deposit growth, which drove a substantial increase in net interest income, along with continued strong capital markets revenue. In addition, our wealth management business remains a key strategic growth engine, providing a meaningful contribution to our record results. As I have mentioned previously, I view our company as operating through three primary lines of business: traditional banking, wealth management, and our LiTech lending platform. Each of these businesses produced outstanding results for the quarter and the year. We continued to deliver strong organic growth and drive enhanced profitability in our traditional banking operations.
Our unique multi-charter model, anchored by autonomous community banks that attract outstanding talent and high-value clients, enables us to consistently outperform competitors and take market share. We continued to grow market share last year as we added significant new clients in all parts of our traditional banking business. Our markets remain very healthy, supported by solid growth, stable economic conditions, and very strong commercial and industrial activity. Our digital transformation is also progressing as planned, with the successful completion of the first of four core system conversions in October. These upgrades are already delivering meaningful benefits for both our clients and our employees. Looking ahead, two additional conversions are planned for April and October of this year, further improving and modernizing our technology stack. These investments will expand our service capabilities, enhance the overall client experience, drive productivity gains, and improve our operating leverage.
Our wealth management business continues to be a significant component of our earnings growth. In 2025, we added nearly 500 new client relationships, bringing in over $1 billion in new assets under management. Our strong capabilities in this business have created five-year compound annual growth rates of 10% for both assets under management and revenue. This success reflects the expertise of our team and the strength of our relationship-based model, which connects our traditional banking clients with dedicated wealth advisors across our markets. As we expand our wealth management business in Central Iowa and Southwest Missouri, we are building momentum, deepening client engagement, and taking market share from our larger competitors.... Our LIHTC lending business also delivered exceptional performance in the second half of the year, reflecting the sustained demand for affordable housing and the expertise of our talented team.
Developers continued to successfully advance their projects despite earlier headwinds, underscoring the resilience of the affordable housing industry. In addition to robust demand for affordable housing, recent legislative actions have expanded available tax credits and further strengthened the outlook for the federal LIHTC program. These enhancements, which continue to receive bipartisan support, represent a significant milestone in the program’s 39-year history. Our deepening relationships with leading LIHTC developers across the country, combined with healthy market appetite, position us to further grow this business and deliver meaningful and consistent contributions to our overall financial performance. Having operated in the LIHTC business for nearly a decade, we continue to view this platform as a highly durable, profitable, and differentiated growth engine for the company. Our success is anchored in deep relationships with developers nationwide, and in 2025, we added 18 new developer partners to our network.
Our relationships with some of the top affordable housing developers in the country position us for continued, strong, and sustained production. While we continue to punch above our weight class in this business, industry data suggests that our current level of production represents only a small fraction of the total LIHTC market. This highlights the substantial growth opportunity ahead and potential to further scale our platform. Building on our momentum and the depth of our pipeline, we are raising the upper end of our capital markets revenue guidance, resulting in a range of $55 million-$70 million over the next four quarters. We also made significant progress on our strategic objective of improving balance sheet efficiency within our LIHTC lending business, particularly during the 2-3-year construction phase, which is typical for many LIHTC projects.
In the fourth quarter, we successfully sold $285 million of LIHTC construction loans at par to a third-party investor. This strategy expands our capacity for additional permanent LIHTC lending and further enhances our opportunities for additional capital markets revenue. It also strengthens our regulatory capital position by reducing risk-weighted assets, providing greater flexibility to allocate capital more effectively. Having the capability to sell these LIHTC construction loans will allow us to generate capital markets revenue more efficiently with less capital, improving our operating leverage and our financial results. In addition, we use the proceeds from this transaction to retire our highest cost FHLB term advances, further lowering our overall funding costs. Because we are originating new LIHTC loans at such a strong pace, our new loans added during the quarter essentially offset the impact of the construction loan sale, minimizing the impact to NII.
In the future, we plan to strategically execute additional LIHTC construction loan sales and securitizations. While the timing will depend on market conditions and other factors, the strong growth in our LIHTC platform is expected to mute the impact of these transactions on net interest income and support opportunities to further grow our capital markets revenue. In addition, LIHTC securitizations and construction loan sales will allow us to cross the $10 billion asset threshold more efficiently and effectively. We began proactively incorporating the costs associated with operating at the $10 billion level into our non-interest expense run rate several years ago. We also recently secured increases in our future interchange revenue and lower debit card processing costs through our digital transformation initiatives and new third-party contracts. As a result, we are well positioned to control the timing of surpassing the $10 billion asset mark with limited financial impact.
2025 was a record-setting year for our company, marked by exceptional growth across all core businesses. We are focused on continuing to deliver top-quartile financial results, and we hold ourselves accountable for creating long-term, sustainable growth in earnings per share and tangible book value per share. Our team has built a foundation for sustained momentum, supported by investments in talent and technology that enhance our competitive advantage. In our investor presentation, released yesterday alongside our Q4 earnings, we showcase several slides that underscore our exceptional long-term performance. One highlight is on page 5 of the investor presentation, which evaluates the performance of all publicly traded banks with assets between $1 billion-$20 billion.
Out of 216 banks, QCRH is one of only seven that achieved a 5-year average ROAA above 130 basis points, a 10-year TBV CAGR exceeding 10%, and a 10-year EPS CAGR greater than 15%. Our exceptional performance in all three metrics resulted in a 10-year total shareholder return of more than 250%, far exceeding the TSR for our high-performing peer group. Our ability to generate top quartile EPS and TBV per share growth is a result of our unique business model and the strength of our team. We truly have the best bankers in each of our markets, backed up by a shared services team that allows them to focus on providing rating fan service to our clients.
As we begin this year, we are focused on advancing our digital transformation to deliver optimized technology to our clients and our team, further expanding our wealth management business, and continuing to grow our LIHTC lending platform. Combined with a positive NIM outlook, expanding operating leverage, solid loan and deposit pipelines, and a stable credit outlook, these initiatives position us to deliver superior financial performance and create continued strong returns for our shareholders. I will now turn the call over to Nick to provide further details regarding our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everyone. We delivered record adjusted net income of $37 million, or $2.21 per diluted share for the quarter, and record full year adjusted net income of $130 million, or $7.64 per diluted share. These exceptional results were driven by significant growth in net interest income from increased average earning assets and net interest margin expansion. In addition, we had solid wealth management revenue growth, strong capital markets revenue, and improved asset quality. Net interest income increased $4 million, or 22% annualized in Q4, and $23 million, or 10% for the year, driven by continued margin expansion. The LIHTC construction loan sale late in Q4 did not materially impact net interest income.
On a tax equivalent yield basis, NIM increased 6 basis points from the third quarter, near the upper end of our guidance range. This expansion was supported by a 14% increase in average earning assets, a significant improvement in our cost of funds, and a favorable mix shift to non-interest-bearing deposits. Our disciplined approach to deposit pricing, combined with a liability-sensitive balance sheet, has driven cost of funds betas that are more than double those of our earning assets in the current rate cutting cycle. Since the Fed began cutting rates in 2024, our deposit costs have declined by 56 basis points, compared to a 32 basis point decline in loan yields. We continue to experience the repricing of lower yielding loans into higher market rates as new loan yields added during the quarter exceeded loan payoff yields by nearly 30 basis points.
As we move further into the rate cutting cycle, however, we expect that positive arbitrage to moderate. We still remain positioned to benefit from future rate reductions, with rate-sensitive liabilities exceeding rate-sensitive assets by approximately $700 million, providing meaningful upside to margin in a declining rate environment. For future cuts in the Fed funds rate, we expect 1-2 basis points of NIM accretion for every 25 basis point cut in rates. If the yield curve steepens, we’d expect NIM expansion at the top end of that range. If the yield curve remains relatively flat, we would expect NIM expansion at the lower end of the range. Our NIM to TEY has expanded 32 basis points over the past 7 quarters, reflecting disciplined execution and favorable balance sheet positioning.
We expect this momentum to continue and are guiding to additional core margin expansion in the first quarter between 3-7 basis points, assuming no further federal rate cuts. Further upside in our first quarter NIM is supported by repricing opportunities on approximately $140 million in fixed-rate loans, currently yielding 5.55%, which are expected to reset nearly 50 basis points higher. We also anticipate continued CD repricing during the first quarter, with approximately $390 million of maturities, currently costing 3.94%, which we expect to retain and reprice nearly 50 basis points lower. We also expect investment yields to continue to expand, supported by a solid pipeline of new municipal bonds priced in the high 6% range on a tax equivalent basis.
In addition, the retirement of the FHLB term debt is expected to contribute nearly two basis points of incremental margin improvement. Non-interest income totaled $39 million for the fourth quarter, driven primarily by $25 million in capital markets revenue. Despite the slower first half of the year, capital markets revenue reached $65 million in 2025, surpassing the upper end of the $50-$60 million annual guidance range we established to start the year. Our wealth management business delivered $5 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, a 4% increase compared to the prior quarter. For the full year, wealth management revenue grew $2 million or 11%, underscoring the strength of this business. Continued growth in assets under management across our markets not only enhances our platform, but also provides stability and diversification in our revenue mix. Now turning to our expenses.
Core non-interest expenses increased $4 million in the fourth quarter, when excluding the $2 million non-recurring prepayment fee associated with retiring higher cost FHLB term funding. The linked quarter increase was primarily due to elevated variable compensation, resulting from strong capital markets performance and record earnings. Higher professional and data processing expenses related to our first core system conversion as part of our digital transformation also contributed to this increase. Our variable compensation structure is designed to maximize operating leverage and provide expense flexibility across changing revenue cycles, aligning employee incentives with shareholder returns. Despite the increase in non-interest expenses, our adjusted core efficiency ratio came in at 56.8%. We continue to prudently manage expenses while investing in talent and technology to support our operations team with initiatives that enhance future operating leverage to strengthen the scalability of our multi-charter community banking model.
Even with continued investments in our business during 2025, we maintained strong discipline over core non-interest expenses, which were up only 4% for the year, in line with our strategic goal to hold non-interest expense growth below 5%. Looking ahead, we expect non-interest expenses to be in the range of $55 million-$58 million for the first quarter of 2026, assuming capital markets revenue and loan growth are within our guided ranges. This outlook reflects our continued commitment to disciplined expense management, aligned with our 9-6-5 strategic model, which targets non-interest expense growth below 5% while driving operating leverage and strong profitability. Looking ahead, our continued investments in technology, combined with the flexibility of our variable compensation structure, will enhance scalability and efficiency, positioning us to deliver sustained operating leverage as we grow. Moving to our balance sheet.
During the quarter, total loans grew by $304 million, or 17% annualized before the impact of the construction loan sale and the planned runoff of the M2 portfolio. Our traditional loan portfolio demonstrated strong growth, increasing $92 million or 8% annualized in the fourth quarter, and $185 million or 4% for the year, when excluding the runoff of the M2 portfolio. Looking forward to 2026, we have a solid pipeline and expect to sustain this momentum as we are guiding to gross annualized growth in a range of 8%-10% for the first quarter, with growth ramping up to a range of 10%-15% for the remainder of the year. Complementing our loan growth, total core deposits grew $64 million or 4% annualized in the fourth quarter.
Average deposit balances rose by $237 million or 13% annualized when compared to the third quarter. For the full year, core deposits increased by $474 million or 7%. Our deposit mix improved for the full year with an increase in non-interest-bearing balances and a 34% reduction in higher cost broker deposits, further strengthening our funding profile. Strong deposit growth across our markets highlights the success of our relationship-driven approach and validates our efforts to expand our deposit market share while providing a stable core funding base for future growth. Asset quality remains excellent. Net charge-offs were static compared to the third quarter, while provision for credit losses increased by $1 million. Total criticized loans continued to improve, decreasing $5 million in the quarter and $20 million for the full year, reflecting a 12% reduction.
Total criticized loans, a key leading indicator of loan quality, are at their lowest level since June 2022. As a percentage to total loans and leases, total criticized loans declined 7 basis points to 1.94% during the quarter, the lowest level in more than 5 years, and remains well below the company’s long-term historical average. Our total NPAs to total assets ratio remained constant at 0.45%, which is approximately half of our 20-year historical average. Our allowance for credit losses to total loans held for investment increased 2 basis points to 1.26%. While our asset quality remains very strong and our criticized loans continue to decline to record low levels, we increased our provision at year-end to bolster our already strong level of ACL.
This is consistent with our long-standing credit culture of maintaining robust reserves, even during times when credit quality is favorable. We executed additional share repurchases in the fourth quarter, repurchasing approximately 163,000 shares, returning $13 million of capital to shareholders. For the full year, we returned nearly $22 million to shareholders, repurchasing approximately 279,000 shares at roughly 1.3 times our current tangible book value. Through last week, we repurchased approximately 32,000 additional shares, increasing total repurchases under the program to more than 310,000 shares since commencing in the third quarter of last year. Our tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio rose by 27 basis points to 10.24% at quarter end.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: ... driven by strong earnings and improved AOCI, partially offset by share repurchases. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio increased 18 basis points to 10.52%, and our total risk-based capital ratio increased 16 basis points to 14.19%, due to our strong earnings growth and the construction loan sale, partially offset by share repurchases. We delivered another quarter of exceptional growth in tangible book value per share, which rose $2.08 to approximately $58, reflecting 15% annualized growth for the quarter. Over the past 5 years, tangible book value has grown at a compound annual rate of 13%, highlighting our continued strong financial performance and long-term focus on creating shareholder value.
Finally, our effective tax rate for the quarter was 8%, down from 10% in the prior quarter, reflecting lower pretax income and an increase in the mix of our tax-exempt income relative to our taxable income. Our tax-exempt loan and bond portfolios have continued to support a low effective tax rate. Assuming a revenue mix in line with our guidance ranges, we expect our effective tax rate to be in the range of 8%-10% for the first quarter of 2026. With that added context on our fourth quarter and full year results, let’s open the call for your questions. Operator, we are ready for our first question.
Conference Call Moderator: Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press Star and then One using a touchtone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press Star and Two. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up the handset prior to pressing the keys to ensure the best sound quality. Once again, that is Star and then One to join the question queue. Our first question today comes from Damon Del Monte from KBW. Please go ahead with your question.
Damon Del Monte, Analyst, KBW: Hey, good morning, guys. Hope everybody’s doing well, and thanks for taking my questions.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Good morning, Damon.
Damon Del Monte, Analyst, KBW: First question. Good morning, Todd. First question, just we appreciate the guidance on the capital markets revenues, $55 million-$70 million over the next four quarters. Just curious, you know, do you guys expect any seasonality kind of in the beginning part of the year? Just trying to kind of model out a cadence for expected revenues.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Damon, thanks for asking that question. We, we certainly did want to set expectations a bit for the first quarter. This is a chance to remind everyone that our first quarter is historically our slowest quarter of the year for capital markets revenue. It’s really not just us. The entire affordable housing industry gets off to a bit of a slow start each year. I really think developers push themselves and their teams to get things closed by twelve thirty-one, then maybe take a little breather for a month or so. As a result, we expect our first quarter here in 2026 to be far better than it was the first quarter of last year. But I do want to make sure we set expectations. We should not all expect another $20 million plus quarter here.
Our Q1 capital markets revenue has averaged $11 million the past five years. We had last year $6 million in there. We’ve had a $13 million. We’ve even had a $16 million. But yeah, Damon, I’m grateful you asked the question. Q1 is a bit slower start. It’s one of the reasons we’re so focused on providing rolling 12-month, 4-quarter guidance. That’s really how we evaluate our performance. That’s how we evaluate the strength of our business, and yet we know first quarter can be a bit seasonally slow.
Damon Del Monte, Analyst, KBW: Got it. Great. Okay, that’s helpful. Thank you. And then, in the past, you’ve talked about, you know, the securitization of moving some of the loans off the balance sheet, and I think last quarter, you kind of talked about mid-year here in 2026. Is that still on the table to be done? And, if so, do you have a kind of a updated target size of loans to securitize and move off?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yes, Damon, thanks for asking about that as well. We do continue to target sometime the first half of this year. I expect us to have that perm loan securitization happen prior to June 30. We do that with Freddie Mac, and Freddie is not-- well, they’re a GSE and not a full government agency, but they can sure act that way sometimes. So they’re undergoing some changes in their securitization program for the M series program we use. And what I mean by changes is they’re making it harder, and it’s taking longer, but we still expect something in the $300 million-$350 million range prior to June 30.
Damon Del Monte, Analyst, KBW: Great. That’s all that I have for now. I’ll step back. Thanks so much.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thanks, Damon.
Conference Call Moderator: Our next question comes from Nathan Race, from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead with your question.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe-
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Good morning, Nate.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Could you just help us with some guideposts in terms of a starting point for earning assets in the first quarter? Just given the moving pieces with the securitization in Q4, and then just the expectation to pay down some wholesale borrowings as well.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah. So, earning assets heading into the first quarter would be very consistent with where we ended earning assets. That construction offtake happened very late in the quarter, actually, December twenty-second. So, that’s why NII was really not impacted by that. So where we ended 12/31 in terms of earning assets is where we’re going to begin. We talked about very robust loan growth plan for this year. We do feel like we’re going to be 12% for the full year, but that’s going to be a little backloaded as well. That’s why we’re guiding to more like 8%-10% gross loan growth in the first quarter. We think that will accelerate in the last three quarters of the year, closer to 10%, 12%, 15%.
We feel really good about loan pipelines, both traditional and LIHTC. So we’ll be ramping earning assets up here throughout the quarter, but starting point would really be the 12/31 number.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Okay. So not necessarily the average balance in the fourth quarter for earning assets, right?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Correct. Correct. Average balance is far greater because that loan sale happened 12/22/2022.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Understood. Okay. And then, Todd, can you just update us in terms of what inning you’re in, in terms of, you know, the, in terms of having the costs and the expense run rate around the transformation and the investments you’re making, and then just any thoughts in terms of, you know, how that translates in terms of the expense run rate over the second quarter and back half of this year relative to the guidance you provided for 1Q?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah, Nate, I think I’m going to let Nick talk a little bit about NIE run rates, and I might tag on a little bit about how we’re thinking about $10 billion.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Yeah, good morning, Nate. Looking ahead here, we obviously, you saw we increased our guidance range for NIE to $55 million-$58 million. Updated range continues to assume that we make further investments in the digital transformation. The approximate midpoint of the $55 million-$58 million range is just about 5% increase over our core NIE year-over-year. So what’s making up some of that increase, I would kind of lay it out this way, about $4 million of digital transformation spend, another $4 million in salary benefit costs and a couple million in occupancy related.
So, despite, you know, the increase in the 26 range, we still expect to create more operating leverage in pushing that efficiency ratio lower as we see some expansion in our revenues that outpace our NIE here. So...
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah. So Nate, I am going to go ahead and tag in on this with the $10 billion thoughts. You know, we ended the year right on top of $9.5 billion. We still expect to stay under $10 billion here at the end of 2026. That will have a lot to do with the timing of some of our construction loan offtake later in the year. I don’t know that we’ll be as precise as doing that almost near the end of the year, but certainly, we’re going to be very mindful of the impact on NII when we do firm loan securitizations and construction loan sales. Many of you are familiar with our 9-6-5 strategy, and we want to grow NII close to that 9% for the full year.
Because of a strong organic gross loan growth, we’re going to be able to do both. But we certainly expect to come in just under $10 billion at the end of calendar 2026. We will go above $10 billion in 2027, and as a result, starting in July of 2028, we’re going to have the rigor of $10 billion and the Durbin impact. But, we are layering in, in that 5% guide that Nick gave everyone, that is not just digital transformation, that is building for the infrastructure we need for $10 billion at the same time. So we’re building it in. We don’t expect there to be a blip in 2028, as a result of going over, and, that’s really important to us.
The 5% and 9-6-5, we are very diligent about making sure we don’t have expense creep, so we can continue to improve EPS and TPB per share. So sorry, sorry for the long answer to your short question, but thought we’d give a little bit of current color and a little bit of future.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: That’s great and very helpful. Thank you for that. Just a question in terms of kind of the deposit gathering expectations. Obviously, you have a pretty robust loan growth outlook there, out there for this year. You know, just curious kind of what you’re seeing in terms of opportunities to continue the momentum on the deposit gathering front. And, you know, just as you look at kind of the balance sheet growth outlook for this year, you know, if we just assume maybe a flat rate environment or a static rate environment, you know, do you see kind of incremental balance sheet growth accretive to the margin?
Just within that context, curious, you know, what kind of opportunities you’re seeing to continue the deposit gathering efforts within the clients that you work with on the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit side of things.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Sure, Nate. Thanks. Great question. I’ll talk a little bit about how we’re looking at deposit growth, and Nick can give you a little bit more of the margin and NII implication after that. But the one thing that all 1,000 of our teammates universally understand is we have to continue to improve the right side of our balance sheet, both core deposit growth and improving our mix. So everyone is focused on that. And there’s really three underlying strategies. We continue to lean in hard to net new retail checking accounts. That doesn’t move the needle in dollars, but over 10 and 20 and 30 years, that is incredibly meaningful in terms of the stability of our funding costs.
So we are very focused on growing net new retail checking accounts, and it only counts in our scorecard if we get their direct deposit and really become their bank. We’re really leaning hard into private banking, that top 10%-15% of retail in each of our markets. It’s a big part of our Quad Cities and Cedar Rapids and Southwest Missouri markets. I’m proud of our leadership in central Iowa. They’ve added some really great talent in private banking in central Iowa, which happens to be our largest MSA. So that’s going to help us with core deposits and wealth management pipeline. And then where we can move the needle more significantly each year is treasury management. We have a great technology platform. We have great people. We are just being more precise and intentional on non-borrowing targets.
Typically, bankers tend to focus on lending, and we’re getting them all focused on gathering deposits. We’ve got to get NIB back up. That’s going to take a while, but we’re really focused on the right side of the balance sheet. And I would just end before I turn it over to Nick, we expect our growth to be funded with core deposits, not wholesale, and we’ve worked that down a fair amount during the year. So that’s our continued focus. Nick, maybe talk about and both NIM and NII.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Yeah. Yeah. So Nate, I’ll probably, you know, reference a little bit our success in 2025 in moving the deposit mix shifts. We did have some success in reducing brokerage. We lowered that by $120 million. That’s just 3% of our total deposits today, and that’s helping reduce some of our cost of deposits. As Todd said, NIB continues to be an area where we need to move the needle further, faster. We did increase that $24 million. They’re about 13% of our total deposits. So, when I look at the growth for 2025, and this kind of leads into maybe how you can think about the growth in 2026, about half our growth came from the correspondent network, so about $238 million.
That’s more priced probably at the market, if you will. There are some non-interest-bearing deposits inside of that business that do help. We also saw the other half of the growth then really came from $200 million in commercial and $32 million in retail. So I would highlight there our success in really continuing to drive into our markets, getting those operating accounts on the commercial side. Over time, that should continue helping our non-interest-bearing deposits. So I think the short answer is a lot of our success in 25 is similar to how we move into 26 and think about the growth there, so.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Okay, got it. If I could just sneak one more in along those lines. Obviously, a notable M&A announcement involving a long-time Iowa competitor recently. Just curious if there’s any kind of early indications on opportunities for share gains, particularly on deposit gathering front, in light of that announcement and potential disruption?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Sure. Yeah. Nate, we are already on top of the MOFG sale. It is really adjacent to the Cedar Rapids market. We have great leadership in that market, very focused on taking clients and taking market share. We don’t have to be located in that market to do so, and we already have a target list and are working it pretty effectively. We expect to take some of the best clients out of that platform. Nick Olej is an incredibly good performer, but we’re pretty certain that some of the folks in Iowa City, Iowa, are not going to be all that thrilled that all the decisions are made out of state, and they’re certainly going to lose some talent. So, we view it as an opportunity.
Again, our entire company was founded on the backs of not very good M&A in the Quad Cities and Cedar Rapids, so we know how to take advantage of that, and we certainly expect to.
Nathan Race, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Okay, great. I really appreciate all the color. Thanks, guys, and congrats on a great quarter in here.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah. Thank you, Nate.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Thanks, Nate.
Conference Call Moderator: Our next question comes from Daniel Tamayo from Raymond James. Please go ahead with your question.
Daniel Tamayo, Analyst, Raymond James: Thank you. Good morning, Todd. Good morning, Nick. Maybe starting on the Litec business. So you gave the updated guidance increase from last year’s guidance. It would be kind of flat to down a bit if we took the midpoint on a year-over-year basis. And then that would be kind of a I guess two or three-year trend of just a little bit down on the revenue side. Obviously, the longer term, it’s up. It seems like there’s great opportunities there. You’ve been growing at a time. Just curious, kind of long term, how you think about growth opportunities within the Litec business? You know, are there bankers that you would need to add to do that?
Are your current bankers at capacity or near capacity? You talked about the developer relationship opportunities, but I’m just curious, kind of, as we take a step back on this Litec business, which continues to be more important for your business overall, kind of what the growth opportunities might look like on a longer-term basis.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thanks for the great question, Danny. We are very excited about the future of this business. If anything, I would just ask everyone to focus less on the top-end number of our range and more on the direction that we here in the last two quarters have moved it up a couple of times. We understand that might look a little light considering the back half of this year. Candidly, I’m okay with that. If maybe the biggest concern folks might have is we’re being a little conservative with our guidance. I think what it has to do with, Danny, is we have worked really hard on this business this year, and while we’ve all worked hard on making this a better business, our Litec team is incredibly talented, and I don’t know that they’ve ever worked harder.
So we’re just trying to be realistic about the fact that we need to operate in this space a little bit with the new construction offtake that we have, make sure we’re fully prepared and ready to grow that business. But certainly, we expect to be able to take the new developer relationships, the new third-party relationships on construction offtake, and continued strong performance by this team and further grow the business. So we do have expectations for further growth. I think I just say, let’s operate in this environment a little bit. Let’s prove the numbers up. We want to maintain our paydown ratio here. That’s always been important to us. So we think the future is quite bright.
Daniel Tamayo, Analyst, Raymond James: Understood. No, I appreciate that. I, I guess from a, you know, efficiency perspective, you talked about the, the expectation for positive operating leverage in the, in the business, and certainly contributing to the overall franchise. How should we think about that 5% kind of expense target that you’ve had, you know, for a long time? It, what does that contemplate from a, from a Litec growth perspective? Is that kind of the range of fee income growth that you’ve provided, so somewhere around the midpoint, and then, you know, you would perhaps be above 5% if the Litec revenue got better?
Then, sorry for a long question here, but wrapping that into a profitability discussion, you know, how do you think—how much further you think you can take this thing? You’re over 150 ROA last couple of quarters. Does that—do you think that can continue to move higher?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Danny, first, I’ll just say your assessment of the guide on NIE is very accurate. That, when Nick is providing that guide, we’re assuming we’re kind of down the middle in terms of guidance on loan growth, on capital markets revenue, on performance. So, you’ve got that nailed. Yeah, we’re quite proud of the back half of this year and finishing, you know, with core ROA at 1.50. But we expect to continue to grow earnings per share and tangible book value per share at a better-than-average clip and stay in the double digits there. And so for us to do that, we have to continue to move up ROAA, and it’s pretty frothy already at 1.50.
But the way we get there, Danny, is, and so I’m, I’m really glad you asked the long question because I, I think it’s important to me that people understand we are not going to achieve greater ROAA simply by further growing the Litec business. That will help, and we expect that to happen, and we expect that to add tremendously to profitability. But at the same time, we have to improve the ROAA performance of our traditional banking space, and we have to get continued 10% growth in wealth management. We do not want to grow earnings solely on the back of our Litec business. It’s really important to us. Our team’s really good at it. We expect it to grow. It’s a tremendous ROA and EPS engine, but we’re just, we’re not just focused on that.
We have to get traditional banking to improve and wealth management to continue to grow at 10%. So we want all three to grow ROAA in the future, and we expect that to happen. So on the traditional side, really two things, improving the right side of the balance sheet and how we fund. As we get better at that, that will help earnings. And then the operating leverage we’re going to get from digital transformation and some other things, we expect that in really starting in 2027 or fully in 2028. So those two things will help traditional. So Danny, I answered your long question with a long answer, but I wanted to take everyone down that path, that while we expect great things out of the future of our Litec business, we really need all three segments to continue to improve performance.
Daniel Tamayo, Analyst, Raymond James: ...Understood. That’s, that’s helpful, Todd. And then maybe just a cleanup one, although it’s also a little longer term in nature. But for you, Nick, just on the effective tax rate, obviously, the tax-exempt portion of the balance sheet has been growing, as you indicated. I mean, should we expect the effective tax rate to continue to trend downward in coming years or quarters and years as that business continues to be a bigger part?
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Yeah. You know, Danny, when we look at our effective tax rate, obviously, very high performing, very low effective tax rate there. We did, I think full year, we landed around 6.5%, and that was compared to 7% in 2024. And both those years had some pretty decent performance. Both of those years were record, record years. To your point, though, the percentage of our tax-exempt business on our balance sheet that drives our income statement, it’s about 30%, so when it hits the income statement. So that’s, I think that’s probably pretty consistent of where we’re expecting that to head. We did give guidance for the next quarter, 8%-10%, but I think that makes sense given some of the lighter activity we’re expecting here in Q1.
So, I think hopefully that helps to answer your, your thoughts there. Can that continue to trend lower over time? You know, I, I guess my short answer is it depends a little bit on, on the makeup of our balance sheet. But, you know, we continue to off balance sheet some of our LIHTC business, so that’s going to moderate. And I think, you know, kind of the level we’re at and have been at here more recently is what you should assume.
Daniel Tamayo, Analyst, Raymond James: Okay. Very helpful. All right, that’s all I had. Thanks very much, guys.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thanks, Danny.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Thanks.
Conference Call Moderator: Our next question comes from Brian Martin, from Janney. Please go ahead, go ahead with your question.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Hey, good morning, guys.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Morning, Brian.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Morning. Hey, hey, Nick, maybe I just missed the end of that on the tax rate, but just the tax rate over the balance of the year, it’s just, do you expect it to change materially off the first quarter level? Or I guess, did you suggest otherwise? Maybe I just didn’t catch that.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Yeah, I think it’ll continue to be pretty static. So, I think your 8%-10% or the 8%-10% we guided to, I think that’s a fair assumption to use, for the 2026 model.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Gotcha. Okay, that’s helpful. Just one other housekeeping on the earning asset number. What was the end of period earning asset number versus the average? How much lower was the end of period than the average? Do you have that?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Nick has that, and he is pulling that up right now, Brian.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Yeah, no worries.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: Brian, it really was right on top. It’s slightly under where we ended the average.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Okay.
Nick Anderson, CFO, QCR Holdings: So average was, like, $8.872 billion, so it, it’s call it $20-$30 million below that.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Below it. Okay, gotcha. Just want to make sure of that. And then, Todd, your comments about just getting better elsewhere, I mean, do you see an opportunity on, I mean, it sounds like there’s an opportunity on the funding side, certainly with the DDA at around 13. I mean, do you expect to be able to, do you see an opportunity to move that up? Or is that, you know, I guess, do you have targets kind of on where that may trend over time? And then just kind of how you’re thinking about the loan-to-deposit ratio here.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Sure. Yeah, Brian, we know we have to improve the right side of our balance sheet for us to continue to improve the performance of our traditional banking space. So we’re right now at about 13% NIB. We’ve been in the 20s, and we know that the rapid increase in rates previously changed the behavior of virtually every deposit client in the country, and they became rate sensitive after spending well over 10 years being non-rate sensitive. And so that has impacted our NIB. We have to have a clear path to improving that, and I do expect it to improve. I would certainly expect us, over time, to move that up to be more peer-like, something in the high teens and maybe even 20. That is not going to happen in a couple of quarters.
Candidly, that’s not going to happen in a couple of years. That’s just going to take a lot of hard work over a long period of time. We’re going to have to see some of our clients become less rate sensitive and allow us to have higher peg balances of non-interest bearing because of our relationship, and we think, over time, we’ll have some success with that. But that’s that is not going to happen, quickly. It’s going to take a lot of work. And the other thing is, over time, we want to be better funded with core deposits and be able to lower our loan-to-deposit ratio. It will never get. I don’t anticipate it’s ever going to get below 90, but we’d like to operate more in the low 90s than the high 90s.
I think over time, we’ll get there. But again, our big focus on the traditional banking space is two main things, and that is our funding mix and our operating leverage, and we have plans to improve both.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Gotcha. In that operating leverage, Todd, I mean, in terms of getting that lower, I mean, you’re targeting kind of getting to the low fifties, you know, from where you’re at today. That’s kind of where the trend line is moving toward or the hockey puck’s moving to?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah, exactly, Brian. That is not going to happen here for a couple of years while we’re investing in the bank of the future and still paying for the bank of the past or current.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Yeah.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: We’re going to stay within that 5% growth on expenses and have that discipline, but it’s really going to start more in 2028 and beyond, where we think that efficiency ratio can drop from the mid-50s% to the low-50s%.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Got you. No, that’s helpful, and it makes sense. Maybe just last one or two for me, just on the on the loan guide or just kind of the loan outlook. You know, in terms of, it sounds like there’s obviously a securitization and maybe potentially later in the year, a couple more of these construction offtakes. Just when we, when we think about the loan growth or the guide, I mean, is this a number that’s net of kind of all the activity that you, you’re anticipating here in terms of the sales and the securitizations? Or, you know, how do we think about the net, net loan growth, kind of, as you go through with all the actions you expect here over the next couple of quarters?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah, Brian, that’s a fair question. It’s kind of a difficult answer, simply because the exact timing of some of this offtake is not real precise just yet. And that’s not because it’s uncertain, that’s because it’s going to depend on how fast our loan growth is and when we think the right time is to sell some of that off. We’re blessed to have a tremendous partner in the construction aspect of this business, and they are very anxious to have more of our construction loans, and we’re anxious to do that with them. But, so I apologize, that’s a little choppy. So what we can talk about is our gross loan growth. We think that’s going to be very strong.
What I’m really thrilled about is, last quarter was the best quarter of the year in terms of loan growth, and while 70% of that was LIHTC, traditional bank was 30%, and that’s the best traditional bank growth we’ve had in a long time. Our pipelines on traditional bank growth are very strong. What I will tell you is, because I know what you’re trying to get here. What you really need to do, Brian, is figure out the impact on NII, and I know that’s why some more precision would help. What I will tell you is we are very focused on doing all this with the balance sheet, but also growing NII, and we are going to target that 9% in 9-6-5.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Got you.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: So the offtake, the offtake will mute loan growth year over year, but during the year, we expect it to help produce NII growth.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Got you. That’s – that’s super helpful, Todd. You know, I guess you know what we’re trying to get to. So, and just the last one for me was just on the, the capital, management and just the buyback. You talked about M&A not being an issue or not being really a factor. Certainly sounds like that continues to be the case. But in terms of the buyback, how do you think about... Is this opportunistic here? Or I guess, is it ongoing? You plan to be in the market kind of regularly, or just how are we thinking about, the, the repurchases?
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Yeah. Brian, thanks for asking about that. We hadn’t really talked about the buybacks, and, I would, I would repeat your word, opportunistic. That’s how we’ve always felt about it. At current valuations, even today’s, buybacks are an attractive use of capital for us. We know it benefits our shareholders. There’s no real algebraic formula on when, how much, what price. It’s certainly more of an art than a science. But we would intend to be opportunistic, and when we think about buying shares back, we tend to think forward about where TBV and EPS are headed. So sometimes we get a little more confident about buying shares at these valuations, knowing where EPS and TBV are headed in the future. So, a good example of that, we spent $25 million so far under the current authorization. That’s 312,000 shares.
What’s lovely about that is that was at a weighted average price of $78. We feel really, really good about having done that for our shareholders, and we’ll remain opportunistic, and try to do that when it makes sense.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Got you. Okay, well, thank you for taking all the questions, and congrats on a great quarter and a great year, and a great future.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thank you, Brian.
Brian Martin, Analyst, Janney: Thanks.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thanks, Brian.
Conference Call Moderator: Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press Star and one. To remove yourself from the question queue, you may press Star and two. Our next question comes from Jeff Rulis, from D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead with your question.
Ryan Payne, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Good morning, this is Ryan Payne on for Jeff Rulis. Just one for me here. Revisiting the loan growth and LIHTC side, what kind of competition are you seeing in LIHTC? And maybe the reasons it feels isolated, and then anything you’re seeing on loan competition in general.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Sure. Yeah, thanks for the question. What I would tell you is, in terms of competition in the LIHTC space, we talked a little bit about this in our scripted comments, but what makes us really encouraged about the future growth of LIHTC is we, we have really our team is tremendous, and we hear that from our developer clients directly about how much they appreciate our team. And we’ve grown this business pretty nicely, but based on industry data that we can get, we only have around 2% of the market. And that obviously makes us very encouraged about potential for future growth. So in terms of headwinds and competition in that space, be candid about it.
The only time we really end up losing deals is when the equity provider to that developer also has either an in-house perm loan or a relationship with someone on the perm side. Because developers, first and foremost, need equity, and so equity sometimes will drive the selection. Not to be cavalier about it, but that’s about the only time we lose transactions, is if an equity player comes in and says, "I’m only going to give you the equity if you do the perm with us." So to combat that, we are working with equity providers that are perm loan agnostic, where they would love to partner with us because they know developers like our program. So we are working really hard to further our relationships with equity providers that can, that can be partners with us on the perm.
So that’s why the future growth of LIHTC, we’re optimistic about it. In terms of local competition for traditional banking, in several of our markets, there is not a transaction that happens in the market without us knowing about it. And candidly, maybe all four markets. We tend to be at the table for most anything of substance in our four markets. It’s because of our structure and our great team. So sometimes what we’re deciding is: are we willing to do it at a certain price? And so, pricing is tough right now. We’re doing a great job. Our bankers are doing tremendous work, maintaining relationships and getting paid as well as we can. But typically, the competition for deals is gonna be more about pricing and whether we can stomach it or not.
Daniel Tamayo, Analyst, Raymond James: Great. Thank you. That’s, that’s all for me.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thank you.
Conference Call Moderator: Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ll be concluding today’s question and answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over to Todd Gipple for any closing remarks.
Todd Gipple, President and CEO, QCR Holdings: Thank you for joining our call, everyone. We very much appreciate your interest in our company. Have a great day, and we look forward to connecting with you soon. Thanks.
Conference Call Moderator: With that, ladies and gentlemen, we’ll conclude today’s conference call and presentation with you. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.