Patria Q3 2025 Earnings Call - Surpassing $50B AUM and Strong Organic Fundraising Momentum
Summary
Patria marked a significant milestone in Q3 2025 by surpassing $50 billion in assets under management (AUM), more than tripling since its 2021 IPO. The firm's diversified multi-asset platform continues to gain traction, driven by robust $1.5 billion organic fundraising in the quarter, pushing year-to-date inflows to $6 billion and positioning the company to exceed its full-year target of $6.6 billion. Fee-earning AUM rose 14% year over year to $38.8 billion, supporting a 22% year-over-year increase in fee related earnings to $49.5 million. With a strong pipeline, particularly in infrastructure and credit, and strategic geographic expansion including the U.S. and Mexico, Patria is poised for steady organic growth, expecting fee related earnings of $225-245 million in 2026, a 15% rise from 2025. The firm maintained discipline on costs, leveraged acquisitions like GPMS effectively, and plans to resume inorganic growth starting 2026 focused on real estate, credit, and infrastructure. Performance fees are expected to pick up in Q4 2025 from key monetizations in Infrastructure Fund III. Shareholder returns remain a priority with an increased dividend to $0.65 per share for 2026 and an active share repurchase program executed via a total return swap to optimize execution and cost. Management highlighted the nascent Brazilian data center sector as a promising new infrastructure opportunity fueled by recent supportive regulations. Overall, Patria projects fundraising of $14 billion over 2025 and 2026, signaling confidence in their strategic trajectory and market positioning amidst evolving global economic dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- Patria surpassed a major milestone with $50 billion in assets under management as of Q3 2025, growing over 3.5x since its 2021 IPO.
- Organic fundraising was strong with $1.5 billion raised in Q3 and $6 billion year to date, on track to exceed the full-year target of $6.6 billion.
- Fee-earning AUM grew 14% year-over-year to $38.8 billion, driving 22% growth in fee related earnings to $49.5 million for the quarter.
- Distributions to shareholders increased with distributable earnings of $46.9 million ($0.30 per share), up 31% year-over-year and a dividend increase to $0.65 per share for 2026.
- The firm expects full-year 2025 fee related earnings slightly above the lower end of guidance ($200-225 million) and projects 15% growth in 2026 to $225-245 million, reflecting strong organic momentum.
- Patria paused acquisitions in 2025 to focus on integration and cost control, planning to resume inorganic growth in 2026-2027 mainly in credit, real estate, infrastructure, and GPMS verticals, with U.S. and Mexico targeted for geographic expansion.
- Performance fees were nil in Q3 but expected to contribute approximately $15 million in Q4 from Infrastructure Fund III monetizations, with more realizations likely through 2026.
- A share repurchase program has been partly executed via a total return swap with a financial institution, allowing confidential, efficient buybacks aligned with offsetting stock-based compensation.
- Patria’s credit business fundraising exceeded 2024 levels by 15% already, and its Infrastructure Fund V closed at $2.9 billion, nearly 40% larger than its predecessor, solidifying its leadership in Latin American infrastructure.
- The company highlighted a new $10 billion data center project in Brazil benefiting from recent government tax incentives, renewable energy availability, and proximity to submarine cables, an innovative platform expected to bolster infrastructure fee-earning assets.
- Approximately 90% of fee-earning AUM have limited or no redemption rights, contributing to the stickiness and predictability of management fees, with only modest foreign exchange exposure reducing volatility risks.
- The GPMS acquisition has seen successful client retention and cross-selling, with secondary strategies and new co-investment funds planned, supporting continued AUM growth and product diversification.
- Patria maintains a disciplined cost structure, with stable operating expenses quarter-over-quarter despite growth investments, demonstrating operating leverage and efficiency gains.
Full Transcript
Conference Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Patra’s Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Andre Medina from Patra Shareholder Relations.
Please go ahead.
Andre Medina, Shareholder Relations, Patria: Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Patre’s Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saig and our Chief Financial Officer, Ana Rousseau and our Chief Economist, Luis Fernando Lops, for the Q and A session. This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation, detailing our results for the quarter, which you can find posted on the Investor Relations section of our website or on Form six ks filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is being webcast and a replay will be available.
Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today’s call may include forward looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. ATRA assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20 F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.
S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Alex.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we jump into the quarterly results, I would like to take a minute to celebrate an important milestone for Patria as our assets under management exceeded $50,000,000,000 as of the end of the third quarter, over 3.5 times higher than our assets under management at the time of our IPO in 2021. Looking back to our origins thirty seven years ago and seeing the diversified investment platform we have built is extremely rewarding. We could not have achieved this milestone without the hard work and dedication of our team and most importantly, the trust our clients have placed in us.
Since we went public in January 2021, Patria has grown from a $14,000,000,000 assets under management, asset manager serving primarily a global investor base and focus mainly on private equity and infrastructure in Brazil to a broadly diversified multi asset class manager serving both local and global investors with strong investments and distribution capabilities across Latin America and expanding capabilities in Europe and The United States. Congratulations to all of our amazing team members in reaching this milestone. Now, with that as a backdrop, the strong third quarter twenty twenty five results further highlight our progress as organic fundraising surpassed $1,500,000,000 in the quarter, led by our infrastructure and credit businesses and total organic fundraising year to date reached $6,000,000,000 Therefore, we are well on track to exceed the high end of our previously upwardly revised full year targets of $6,600,000,000 I’d like to note that for the last twelve months, organic fundraising inflows to assets under management totaled approximately $6,900,000,000 I’d like also to point out that the aforementioned year to date $6,000,000,000 of fundraising inflows into assets under management do not include any acquisition, a result of how we are leveraging the investments we have made in our platforms, mainly in our commercial areas.
Redemptions have been trending lower and year to date represent approximately 30% less than what we saw last year, a clear reflection of our strong investment performance across our verticals. Strong fundraising supported by lower redemption rates is translating into solid net organic growth as we generated over $1,400,000,000 of net organic inflows into fee earning assets under management year to date and $1,800,000,000 over the last twelve months. Year to date, net inflows reflect an annualized organic growth rate of about 6%, which continues to highlight our ability to drive strong organic revenue and earnings growth. With that, our fee earning assets under management in the third quarter twenty twenty five grew to $38,800,000,000 up 4% sequentially and 14% year over year. In the 2025, we reported fee related earnings of $49,500,000 representing 7% sequentially and 22% year over year growth, driven mainly by solid fee earning assets under management growth and margin expansion.
As we continue to make progress integrating our acquisitions. On a per share basis, fee related earnings of $0.31 in the 2025 rose 8% sequentially and 19% year over year. Our momentum is further illustrated by the 46,900,000 of distributable earnings we generated in the third quarter or $0.30 per share, up a robust 22% sequentially and 31% year over year, driven mainly by the just mentioned very strong fee related earnings growth. In addition, during the third quarter, we entered a total return swap with a financial institution to repurchase 1,500,000.0 shares. With that, as of the end of the 2025, our share count stands at 158,000,000 shares.
Anna Rousseau, our CFO will provide further details in her comments. While we did not generate performance related earnings in this quarter, I am excited to announce that subsequent to quarter end, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which we expect will generate approximately $15,000,000 of performance related earnings in the fourth quarter, bringing year to date total to approximately $16,000,000 with the potential to move higher if we have additional monetizations over the remaining two months of the year. We continue to expect Infrastructure Fund III to be the main source of performance related earnings through 2026. As it relates to the macro outlook, it is worth noting that depreciation of the United States dollar against most of the other currencies, which contributes to our revenues in addition to the dollar. Historically, periods of dollar weakness have acted as catalysts for international portfolio diversification, prompting investors to seek exposure to regions with stronger relative performance, lower correlation and more attractive fundamentals.
We are seeing this story unfold once again as many global investors move to reduce their overweight positions in United States assets. We believe there is still more to come as non United States markets continue to offer compelling valuations and conserve as effective risk adjusted options to rebalance portfolios and hedge against dollar depreciation. This environment is likely to further support our fundraising efforts. As I noted at the start of my remarks, we are pleased to report that we raised 1,500,000,000 in the 2025, totaling approximately $6,000,000,000 year to date. And we are well on track to exceed the high end of our full year target of $6,600,000,000 For the last twelve months, organic fundraising inflows to assets under management totaled approximately $6,900,000,000 To provide some additional color on fundraising, we continue to see increased global interest in investments in infrastructure in Latin America, from which we continue to benefit as the leading infrastructure investor in the region.
Over the first three quarters of the year, we raised four times more than in 2024, led by our infrastructure Fund V drawdown fund, co investment vehicles and other strategies. I would like to congratulate our infrastructure and commercial teams on the recently announced final close of our Fund V and related vehicles at $2,900,000,000 almost 40% higher when compared to our previous vintage, making it the largest dedicated infrastructure vintage focused fund on Latin America. It is also important to highlight that our credit business continues to stand out and has surpassed total twenty twenty four fundraising by almost 15% as of the 2025, reaching $1,600,000,000 fundraise this year. It is worth noting that 2024 was already a record year for fundraising for credit. Our success in fundraising for infrastructure and credit is supported by a global economy experiencing persistent inflation and consequently high interest rates.
Finally, GPMS has raised $1,700,000,000 year to date, continuing to highlight the strong support from our clients and the success of the integration of this business onto our platform. We believe that GPMS will continue to be a strong contributor to our future growth. As we expand our business, a large portion of the capital we raise will flow into fee earning assets under management as capital is deployed. Our current pending fee earning assets under management totals about $3,200,000,000 While the level of pending fee earning assets under management can vary over the short term, over time, we would expect it to grow as our fundraising grows and we can raise more capital in drawdown funds, SMAs and similar fund structures. It is also important to note that our fee earning assets under management and management fees are very sticky and highly predictable.
Indeed, approximately 22% of our fee earning assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, listed vehicles with no redemption policies and approximately 90% in vehicles with no or limited redemption policies. Additionally, it is worth noting that over 50% of our fees are charged over net asset value or market value, which year to date has contributed approximately $2,000,000,000 to fee earning assets under management, reflecting our very strong investment performance. We also like to highlight that our fee related earnings have limited exposure to foreign exchange volatility. Based on our current assets class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts fee related earnings by only about 2%. As we head into the fourth quarter and we gain a better visibility into our expected full year 2025 and 2026 results, we believe we are well on the way to delivering on our targets.
With regards to fundraising, we are confident in our ability to exceed the high end of our 2025 full year target of 6,600,000,000 Additionally, as disclosed during our 12/09/2024 Investor Day, our objective is to raise $21,000,000,000 from 2025 through 2027, comprised of $6,000,000,000 of fundraising in 2025, dollars 7,000,000,000 in 2026 and $8,000,000,000 in 2027. As we expect to exceed the $6,600,000,000 upper end of our previously upwardly reviewed 2025 guidance, This increases our confidence that we can surpass our announced 2026 targets of $7,000,000,000 Accordingly, we believe total fundraising for 2025 and 2026 combined could reach $14,000,000,000 Considering our $8,000,000,000 fundraising target for 2027, we believe we are well positioned to exceed our total three year objective of $21,000,000,000 As it relates to our full year fee related earnings, we expect full year fee related earnings to be slightly higher than the entry level of our fee related earnings targets range of $200,000,000 to $225,000,000 for 2025. Additionally, as we look into the next year, we are introducing the 2026 fee related earnings target range of $225,000,000 to $245,000,000 or $1.42 to $1.54 per share. When taking into account our share count guidance of 158 to 160,000,000 shares, our 2026 fee related earnings objective reflects approximately 15% year over year growth in fee related earnings per share at the midpoint of this range.
Importantly, we remain comfortable with our fee related earnings 2027 target range of $260,000,000 to $290,000,000 or $1.6 to $1.8 per share. Finally, we are reaffirming our performance fee related earnings target range of $120,000,000 to $140,000,000 from the 2024 to the 2027, of which we already realized $42,000,000 and we expect to realize an additional approximate $15,000,000 in the fourth quarter of this year. Pulling this all together, our financial results and ongoing fundraising momentum provide additional evidence that our strategy to diversify and grow our business both organically and inorganically is paying off. Now, let me turn the call over to Ana to review our financial results in more detail. Thank you very much.
Ana Rousseau, Chief Financial Officer, Patria: Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Over $50,000,000,000 in AUM is indeed a landmark to be proud of. And then Alex mentioned, our strong momentum continue as we raised $1,500,000,000 in the third quarter and $6,000,000,000 year to date. Our fundraising success show how the strategic investments we have been making in our investment platforms, products and distribution capabilities are paying off. We entered the fourth quarter confident in our ability to achieve our objectives for this year.
Now let’s review our third quarter results in more detail. In light of our robust fundraising year to date, we are well on track to exceed the high end of our full year target of $6,600,000,000 against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty and volatility. Our fee AUM rose 14% year over year and 4% sequentially to approximately $38,800,000,000 The strong year over year growth reflects the combination of solid organic net inflows of $1,800,000,000 positive contribution from strong investment performance and the acquisition of the Brazilian REITs discussed during our last earnings call and concluded this quarter. Our fee earning AUM growth continues to highlight our spending fundraising capabilities and deployment opportunities coupled with the thickness and resiliency of our asset base. In addition, our fee earning AUM is also benefiting from a declining rate of redemptions.
Spending fee earning AUM of $3,200,000,000 combined with our fundraising goals, the 22 of fee AUM that are in permanent capital vehicles, the almost 35% of fee AUM in drawdown funds with an average life of six years and the overall thickness of our asset base together highlight our ongoing ability to generate net organic fee AUM growth over time. Total revenue in the third quarter reached $84,600,000 up 11% year over year and about 4% sequentially. This quarter included $1,300,000 of catch up fees. Our management fee rate averaged 94 basis points over the last trailing four quarters. As we review at our 12/09/2024 Investor Day, we are steadily diversifying our business and introducing new investment strategies and product structures, which are key drivers of our growth.
Consequently, our management fee rate will continue to evolve and we expect our fee rate to trend towards 90 basis points over the coming quarters, but with the potential to vary depending of the mix. Moving on, operating expenses, which include personnel and G and A expenses, totaled approximately $34,400,000 in the quarter, flat versus second quarter twenty twenty five and prior year. We remain focused on controlling expenses and capturing operating efficiency even as we continue to reinvest in the business. Looking ahead, we believe the third quarter personnel and G and A expenses combined are a good baseline for the next quarter. Putting it all together, Patra delivered fee related earnings of $49,500,000 in the quarter, up 22% versus the prior year and 7% sequentially, with an FRE margin that rose more than 500 basis points versus the third quarter twenty twenty four and one hundred and seventy basis points sequentially to 58.5%.
We remind you everyone that the fourth quarter is often our strongest quarter in terms of FRE margin, driven by the recognition of most of our high margin incentive fees from our credit and public equity platforms. We continue to expect the full year margin to fall within the range of our 58% to 60% guidance. As Alex mentioned, as we entered the last quarter of the year and our visibility into the remainder of the 2025 improves, we expect fee related earnings for the full year to be slightly above the entry level of our FRE target range of $200,000,000 to $225,000,000 Additionally, as Alex also noted, we expect to generate $225,000,000 to $245,000,000 of FRE in 2026 and we remain on track to deliver our 2027 FRE target of $260,000,000 to $290,000,000 with an FRE margin objective of 58% to 60%. As a reminder, about 10% of our 2027 FRE target reflects future potential M and A. Although we did not generate any performance related earnings in the third quarter, Subsequent to the quarter end, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which we expect will generate approximately $15,000,000 of performance related earnings in the fourth quarter with the potential to move higher if we have additional monetizations over the remaining two months of the year.
We continue to expect Infrastructure three, which pro form a for the recent monetization had approximately $45,000,000 of net accrued performance fees at the quarter end to be the main source of PRE through 2026. Next, our net financial and other government expenses in the third quarter twenty twenty five totaled a negative of $1,000,000 versus a negative of $4,000,000 in the second quarter twenty twenty five. This sequential improvement mainly reflects a greater contribution from Trieste, our energy trading platform of $1,700,000 in the quarter compared to $700,000 in the second quarter twenty twenty five. Additionally, lower average debt over the course of the third quarter also contributed to the lower financial expense. As of the end of the third quarter, net debt totaled approximately $108,000,000 and our net debt to FRE ratio of 0.6 times was well below our long term guidance of one time.
As we manage our cash flow and capital structure over the balance of the year, we expect our debt levels to remain relatively unchanged as we do not have any relevant M A payment for this year. Our current deferred M and A related cash payments through 2028 will be approximately $95,000,000 excluding potential earn out. In addition, we entered to a total return swap or TRS with a financial institution during the third quarter, which under the terms of the swap purchased 1,500,000.0 shares on our behalf. We expect to settle the cost of the TRS by mid-twenty six and transfer the shares to Patria, which we plan to retire. Our effective tax rate in the third quarter of 3.3% mainly reflects credits related to our UK operation.
We expect our tax rate over the coming years to hover around 10% annually, but will vary quarter by quarter depending on the evolving mix of our business, although we expect 2025 to be below 10%. In the third quarter twenty twenty five, we generated $46,900,000 of distributor earnings, up 34% versus third quarter twenty twenty four and DE per share of $30 up 31% year over year and 22% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher FRE helped by lower net financial and other income and expense, lower tax and on a sequential basis lower share count. As I mentioned during our last earnings call, the Board of Directors voted to renew and increase our share repurchase program and we have the authorization to repurchase up to 3,000,000 shares. In the third quarter, PATR entered a total return swap with a financial institution, which under the terms of the swap purchased 1,500,000.0 shares on our behalf. Considering the nature of the TRS, we finished the quarter at 158,000,000 shares and continue to expect the share count to average between 158,000,000 and 160,000,000 from 2025 to 2027, inclusive of additional share repurchase, which will be focused on offsetting stock based compensation.
Finally, as announced during our 12/09/2024 Investor Day, the Board had approved an annual dividend of $0.60 per share for 2025. With that, we declared dividend of $0.15 per share for the third quarter. Also it is important to note that the Board has now approved a total annual dividend of $0.65 per share for 2026. Overall, we are very pleased with our third quarter results and the momentum we have built as we continue to diversify and improve the resilience of our business. We believe we are on track to meet the various targets we share with you and we are excited regarding the growth opportunity that lies ahead of us.
Thank you for everyone for dialing in and we are now ready to answer your questions.
Conference Operator: Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. Our first question comes from Rodrigo Ferreira at Bank of America.
Rodrigo Ferreira, Analyst, Bank of America: Good morning, Alex and Ana. I hope everyone is doing well and thank you for taking my question. You’ve raised $6,000,000,000 year to date and are on track to exceed the $6,600,000,000 full year target. Given the strong momentum, how are you thinking about the pacing of capital deployment, especially with the $3,200,000,000 in pending fee earning AUM? Thank you.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Thanks for the question. Thanks for participating in the call. No, really, we’ve been very excited with the 6.6 raise up to the ’25. As I mentioned during the call, last twelve months we did raise 6.9. That’s why we feel comfortable at six, sorry, until the end of the third quarter Guidance of $6,600,000,000 last twelve months, dollars 6,900,000,000.0.
So that’s why we feel comfortable that we are probably going to beat the $6,600,000,000 new guidance. We have over $3,000,000,000 of pending PPA, but I think over the next twelve to eighteen months, we should deploy that. We do have a very active pipeline, mostly in infrastructure. Most of this fee pending fee earnings fee pending AUM, Rodrigo, comes from our infrastructure efforts as we did raise in 2025 finish rating our flagship vintage sub five for infrastructure of approximately $2,900,000,000 So most of that capital will come from investing our infrastructure new vintage, Vintage five, In addition to the co investment vehicles that are paying fees together with the infrastructure closed end from five. Also, we did raise capital that’s pending for us to invest, which is in the GPMS.
And also the GPMS mostly the secondaries, our secondary strategy, we envision to invest along the next twelve to eighteen months as well. So most of this fee pending AUM, Fiorid AUM should be invested over the next twelve to eighteen months. I hope I answered your question.
Rodrigo Ferreira, Analyst, Bank of America: Thank you. No, that was great. And then for my follow-up, can you give us an update on how you’re thinking about inorganic growth at this moment? I know we have the $14,000,000,000 Investor Day guidance. But at this moment, asset classes or geographies are you interested in?
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Yes. Well, we have guided that we would try not to do any acquisitions in 2025. And we will try then to restart with our acquisition efforts 2025, 2026. Of course, it’s easier said than done. I joke that sometimes the mergers and acquisitions, and A is misery and anguish, right?
You don’t you never know when you’re going to sign the deal. But jokes aside, I think we managed to do that. Now we’re finishing ’25 because we wanted to have a full four quarters, six quarters of no M and A. As we mentioned the last twelve months, the last four quarters, all of the numbers that we just posted are pure organic fundraising, organic growth, organic related numbers. And we wanted to have that pause to show us and, of course, investors and stakeholders that our strategy was working, the acquisitions that we did were being integrated.
You saw that we’re now very, very concerned very, very disciplined on the cost level of you can see it in the third quarter results, and you’re going to see it in the full year results. So this was an important as a checkpoint that we paused, we integrated, we fundraised for these new asset classes that we acquired, We controlled costs, etcetera. As we move into 2026 and 2027, we would like to turn on then the inorganic expansion, which is important for us to complement our menu offering to also complement our geography footprint. And what we see going on right now is most of the activity is in the real estate and credit arenas. So these two asset classes are the ones that are with negotiations in a more advanced phase.
Coming then in third place, our infrastructure related also strategies. So of course, it has to do as well, I think, with these strategies that have been performing the best in fundraising and the best in interest level from our clients. On the geography side, I think we will as we mentioned all the way back, I think our GPMS, Global Private Market Solutions that we did buy as a carve out from the asset manager, Aberdeen, was a mostly European focused business. Twothree of the business is European focused. And we would like to expand our U.
S. Side of this business to become more of a global solutions provider for private equity, primary, secondaries and co invest. So U. S. Would be a geography that we are looking into.
I think the acquisition that we’re going to do there is not going to be very substantial. That’s why it’s forced in the list of relevance. I go back to the infrastructure and real estate credit and real estate and then comes infrastructure, then comes GPMS on the relevant side. Geography, U. S, mostly GPMS and Mexico, mostly real estate and credit.
So in order of importance, again, just repeating here to be redundant, I’m sorry, credit, real estate, then comes infrastructure, then comes GPMS, geography, U. S. And Mexico as new geographies. And we continue to enhance our presence, of course, in the geographies that we already exist, mainly in Brazil. We are now trying to spearhead and be a protagonist of this consolidation of the industry.
We see several asset managers in our industry pushing that agenda from the mega ones to the large ones. And now as a 50,000,000,000 asset manager, I think we joined the club of the other $50,000,000,000 asset managers. So I think we have the mega ones managing close to $1,000,000,000,000 Then there’s a second group of around 20 that manage globally between 100,000,000,000 and $300,000,000,000 And then we come with this third group, which is we’re number 31 now globally, thirty-thirty one. Of course, so the second group of $50,000,000,000 asset managers, all of us actually pushing this consolidation agenda. Interesting that these $50,000,000,000 managers, they have a geographic also origin.
Some of them are Asia or have Asian origins. Another has a Middle Eastern origin. We have two Europeans. We have a couple of Americans and us. I think the only Latin that does exactly what we do, pursuing this consolidation agenda in their respective regions of origin, first and foremost, in our case, America, of course.
And then, of course, trying also to expand globally with one or two asset classes or strategies. In our case, GPMS was the chosen one. So I hope I answered your question, Enrique.
Rodrigo Ferreira, Analyst, Bank of America: That was perfect. Thank you.
Conference Operator: Our next question comes from Tito Labarta at Goldman Sachs.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hi, good morning, Alex and Ana. Thank you for the call and taking my question. A couple of questions. Just on the FRE guidance for this year, you mentioned you’d like to be slightly above the lower end of the range. Just looking at the trends right now, if FRE is similar in 4Q, you’d be around $188,000,000 Should we assume that the difference to get you to above that $200,000,000 would mostly come from the incentive fees that you most typically get in 4Q?
Or would there be any other potential upside that we could see in 4Q other than the incentive fees? And then I have a second question.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Thanks, Sito. Nice talking to you, and thanks for participating in our call. I think that both I think mainly the numbers that you just went through there, think, makes sense. We expect around 10,000,000 to $12,000,000 coming from incentive fees, and that’s a relevant portion of the FRE contributor for the fourth quarter twenty twenty five. In addition, but not at this level of relevance in absolute dollar terms, we have more FRE coming from management fees because these management fees being driven by the fundraising that we just described during our earnings call and answering Rodrigo’s question.
All of that fundraising is already translating into more management fees, and that management fees, it’s the same team that basically that we had in the third quarter. So that actually then flows down to fee related earnings. But in absolute value importance, you are correct. I think that now $10,000,000 $12,000,000 coming from incentive fees is number one contributor for us to then surpass the $200,000,000 of FRE, which is the entry level of our guidance. Coming second, the contribution from the fundraising that is translating into fee earnings, fee related earnings in the fourth quarter, that we have more fee earnings AUM in the fourth quarter than we had in the third, more in the third than we had in the second and so on and so forth because we are managing to fundraise more than what we expected.
I’ll give you one example here just to know. So using your question here to throw in another interesting subject that I would like to cover. We didn’t cover this in the call because we got that news late last night, our data center platform. So I’m using your question here also to make this release of information here, Chito, but it has to do with your question. Now as of yesterday, the Brazilian government did approve a very interesting regulatory framework that basically enables exporting data from these incentivized areas in Brazil in an incentivized tax framework.
Basically, you don’t pay taxes as you as a data center exports data. So the data that is processed in these data centers in Brazil have this very interesting tax advantage. And also, if you import the machinery equipments to build the data center, you also don’t pay any import tariffs. Brazil is kind of mimicking what other regions in the world did, like in Malaysia, Singapore, etcetera, to attract these massive data center related investments. And so I think Brazil the Brazilian government is in the forefront in the vanguard of this regulatory framework by approving this legislation as of yesterday.
It’s, of course, an additional advantage of actually building these data centers in Brazil is the vast availability of renewable energy and also the low consumption of water and recycling water that we have in our specific design data center design. And of course, you know about the renewable energy in Brazil. And in our project per se, that is actually that actually will leverage on this regulatory framework approved by the Brazilian government of Zodiac. And of course, we have been working with the Brazilian government very intensively over the last quarters. We already have an off taker, a relevant off taker to build a 200 mega data center that consumes around 300 mega of energy.
We already have the energy provider, in this case, Casa dos Ventus, 100% renewable. And we also have several of the licenses, mainly and most importantly, to connect our data center to the substations that actually are connected then to the submarine cables. The real estate that we actually have already identified and already optioned is very close to the submarine cables that connect the Brazilian coastline with the major regions of the world. And that submarine cables help on the in reducing the latency of actually processing that data in the data centers in Brazil. And we’re putting up 2,000,000,000 to construct the infrastructure.
The offtake is putting up approximately $8,000,000,000 so it’s a $10,000,000,000 project. We can threefold, fourfold, fivefold that because it’s a 200 mega. There is no potential for us to increase that with the same offtaker, which the offtaker has the interest actually to more than double. We also have the interest to continue investing in that project, and we can actually work with other offtakers as well. If you see that we do have that we do manage approximately on fee paying AUM, going back to Rodrigo’s questions and your question on FREs and revenues.
For our infrastructure vertical, we are managing around $4.4500000000.0 dollars of fee earnings AUM. We can basically double that with a fee paying SMAs dedicated to these data center platforms. So extremely interesting. We also did the same kind of SMA joint venture framework to invest in toll roads in Brazil, also through our infrastructure vertical, also answering Rodrigo’s question, that will take on then, of course, the AUM raised for our infrastructure vintage number five and invest and then turning that into fee earnings AUM and revenues. We won a couple of toll roads through this JV that we call Reyuli or Union Unified that has not only infrastructure from five, but has other very, very important large institution investors of ours, mainly sovereign funds investing in that platform.
We, again, won two concessions through that platform, and we see that we can continue going on. That can become it’s $1,000,000,000 commitment, but it can become three, four, fivefold that as we look into the future. So we see these platforms in toll roads, which is already up and running and already won two concessions in data centers, where we have this project that I just described and the company there is called Omnia. And we see other potential platforms that infrastructure related platforms throughout Latin America, where we can actually then co invest with our infrastructure fund or just have a JV kind of framework, an SMA kind of framework to invest significant amount of money in infrastructure related projects in Latin America. And all of that actually transforms then because all of them are fee paying, Chito and Rodrigo, all of that transforms into fee earning AUM that actually then fuels our revenues and our numbers going forward.
So as we look into 2026 and 2027, we feel comfortable that we will continue with that good pace of fundraising and good pace of FRE increase that we went through during the call today. Thank you. Sorry to take a long answer to your question on using the data center capital, Chito, but I think that was important.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Yes. No, very helpful. Thank you, Alex, for all that color. And then just one other quick question on your performance fees. I mean, I think you mentioned Infrastructure three sort of the main likely place where you can maybe realize some performance fees in the near term.
In the past, We’ve seen 4Q, you typically are able to realize them. Just any color you can give on your ability to realize some of these performance fees in the short term? Thanks.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Yes. After the end of the third quarter, so into October 2025, we did have some realization events that we highlighted during the call pushing increasing our performance related earnings by $15,000,000 We had a small number up to the end of the third quarter of $1,000,000 So that actually adds to the 15,000,000 So we’re now looking to $16,000,000 of performance related fees for this year to date October. As we look into November and December, we’re very active on realizations. So potentially, we’re gonna have more realizations from our infrastructure fund three in this last sixty days of of of the year. However, as you know, I I know, like, I don’t want to be repetitive on my joke here, but no mergers and acquisitions also means misery and anguish in some cases.
And so if they’re signing the deal, if something happens, the deal then slides to be signed early twenty twenty six, it’s a big part of the game. So that’s why we like to give more of a broader kind of view on timing as far as realization of performance fees are concerned. So into 2026 and, of course, 2027, we still see the 120,000,000 to $140,000,000 out of which we already did deliver around 45 And so we still have some that might happen end of this year, but we see that a very good pace and the quality of the investors also very, very high quality as we are being able to attract strategic foreign investors that are coming into the region. Van Cie, the French toll road operator, I think their first incursion into Brazil was buying one of our toll roads. We also had Indigo, which is another French parking lot operator that brought into our parking lot a company called Parqui Bain and so on and so forth.
So no and sovereign, very, very high quality sovereign funds also buying into our assets. So very, very interesting, I think, quality of investors and bringing money into Brazil to be able to buy our assets. And you see that the whole theory here is actually turning into reality as it has for the last twenty five years in infrastructure. We have development funds. And then once the asset is developed, we sell to strategic investors.
That can be sovereign funds that take a role of strategic investors and can be also pure strategic investors. We see that as well coming along now closer to 2025 now on Chito, not 2026. Some of our private equity related strategies also with a high probability of generating performance fees. In this case, specifically, we see our growth funds and our venture funds being able to generate interesting performance fees later in the three year plan period, which is into 2027. So we’re probably going to see Infrastructure Fund III realizing most of its performance fees during 2026.
And as we look into 2027, we see some PE related private equity related funds in a good moments to realize investments as some of these investments are already mature and we start actually looking into realizations and building into that performance. For example, we recently sold one two assets from our growth fund. One is an online psychology driven business psychology sessions driven business that we actually sold and merged into another company. And then we sold our online education business as well. And as you sell these businesses, they build into then return principal and hurdle.
And after that, you start generating fees. So as I see the realizations from these funds already happening, I mentioned two examples, this year of 2025, I see other deals that we’re working on that we’re probably going to realize from these funds in 2026, building in to deliver back capital to investors and then performance fees in 2027. So I can I have a lot more of a twenty four to thirty six months advanced look because I see the realizations building up and getting close to the principal and hurdle? And then we have the whole catch up as we have right now for infrastructure front reads. So more PE related strategies for 2027, more infrastructure related strategies for 2025 and 2026.
I hope I answered your question. Thank you.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Yes, very helpful. Thank you, Alex, and congrats on the strong quarter.
Conference Operator: Our next question comes from Riccardo Ushpagal at DTG Pactual.
Riccardo Ushpagal, Analyst, DTG Pactual: Hi, everyone, and thank you for the opportunity of making questions. Can you please provide an update on how the cross sell of the GPMS products to Patras LP should evolve over the next few years? The vertical is now growing around like 8% year over year, the AUM. So it will be interesting also to hear what we can expect in terms of potential acceleration over the next, I don’t know, three years without considering M and A on this vertical? Thank you.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Yes. Think Ricardo, thanks for participating and thanks for your question. I think it’s a when we did the acquisition, saw a couple of phases into raising money with from all of our client base. I think phase one was to gain the confidence from the current clients, right? I think we as a Latin origin company buying business in The U.
K. Of course, we did the diligence before that, and we saw that and we heard from the clients. We did, of course, interviews with these clients, blinded and not and non blinded interviews with the main clients of this of this business, Ricardo. And and, you a lot of thumbs up. You know, they they really like the team.
And they were saying, of course, depending on on the buyer, we we would actually, course, support that new buyer. So phase one was actually getting back to these clients post closing, which we did, which was, as you as you know, we we did took took over the business in April 2024, so a year or something ago. And that actually went very well. You can see the kind of how does how do clients actually respond to that in a concrete manner. They don’t redeem, and they invest more.
Right? They invest more with you because they’re happy, and they don’t redeem because they’re happy. And that’s what happened. I think over the last twelve to fourteen months or fifteen months, everything worked well. We saw clients actually re upping.
We saw in four hours special secondaries opportunities in fund number five, which is a blind structured fund. We saw, you know, SMAs continue to be beefed up with new money and renewed and so on and so forth. Then I think we started with, I think, as secondaries opportunities, number five, fundraising to attract new clients, new clients from our base and clients that were not in our base of clients or and we’ve been able to be successful, and we are very well on plan to be able to have secondary opportunities on V to reach its target. And I think it’s going to exceed its target. We were targeting around $500,000,000 for that.
And I think we already see that kind of that number. So it’s it’s not very common these days for a a blind structured funds to hit the targets, and I think we’re gonna surpass it. Now we I think we’re gonna surpass it in, you know, 10% to 20% of that number, which is rare. There’s not very common common for private equity related strategies, in this case, a secondary strategy to hit the number that it announces in its, know, what we say in its front cover page of the prospectus. And it’s even more rare for actually funds to overcome that number, and we’re going to do it.
I think we’re going to overcome that number in 10% to 20%, as just mentioned. So that was the second phase, and we and the real test, as I say, is clients actually give you more money. And that’s what they did for secondaries, opportunities on number five. And not only from our own base, but we have clients that were not even our clients, which is because we have a new product to offer. And so we are happy.
So we are in phase number two. We’re living phase number two. Of course, phase number three, we’re going to launch more products from this from the GPMS structure. We have ahead of us so many new strategies that we’re thinking about a blind fund structure, which a pure co investment fund that we’re thinking about starting to launch early next year. So we have the SMAs that invest in private equity primaries, secondaries and co invest.
Then several years ago, the Aberdeen team actually did spin off the secondary strategy and started raising blind structured funds from one, two, three, and now we’re raising fund five, as I mentioned a couple of minutes ago. We when we take a look at their co investments track record that they did over 100 co investments through the SMAs, amazing track record, 16% to 20% net IRRs. So we are then pulling that off. We’re, of course, working to show the investors the fantastic track record that the team actually delivered with that specific strategy and then actually raised a closed end fund. So it’s going be our co investment fund number one.
And we see some traction, and we’re taking that to the road early next year. So that’s phase number three, to have a new product with the same investors and new investors. And so we’re pretty happy that that’s working on well. I can mention several other products that are also in our pipeline that actually derives from the GPMS strategy. We can have a credit fund that actually works in the same kind of mid market level.
We can have actually a GP stake fund, like Dials of the World or whatever. So other so many new products and exciting new things that we can do over the next years. I mentioned a blind fund structure or investment fund as an example. On the Latin American side, we continue to raise a very important absolute value from Latin American investors into our GPMS products, less so because we are bringing them now into our strategy, but to other global asset managers that we do represent in the region, Carlisle being one, as you guys know. And we have been very successful with that strategy in 2025, raising significant amount of money with Latin American institution investors mainly into Carlyle related funds, with Alpinvest, which is the solutions provider for Carlyle, helping us actually develop solutions for our institutional clients in LatAm.
We’re also looking to represent eventually other global alternative asset managers who sell for our Latin clients. And so happy with that as well. So no, I can’t complain. I think it’s the we were well accepted by the GPMS clients. And again, as I mentioned, the best way for our clients to say that they are happy with you is to put more money in a new fund or a new strategy and not redeem.
And that’s what’s been happening. And I think we’re going to have great news to report during 2026 in these fronts. Hope I answered your question, Julio.
Riccardo Ushpagal, Analyst, DTG Pactual: That’s clear. Thank you. And for my follow-up question on capital return, it would be interesting if you could provide more color on the total return swap mechanism you mentioned in the call and also give more details on the rationale for the $0.65 per share dividend that you also announced for next year?
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: No, thank you. Thank you for those two questions. Well, the TRS is a very interesting way of actually to execute a share buyback program, right? And I’ll give you my comments on it. So just taking a couple steps back.
Late last year, we did our board approved a 3,000,000 share buyback program. I think it was early this year. I’m sorry. Late late last year, we did approve, but the board approved 1,500,000, and then it increased to 3,000,000 shares share buyback program early this year. When we looked into as the CEO and the management team, together with Ana, our CFO, when we looked into alternatives to execute this share buyback program, the EUR 3,000,000 share buyback program, we saw and concluded that the TRS total return swap, I think, was one of the most interesting ones.
First of all, you do it, I think, for confidentiality reasons, for conflict reasons, you do outsource the execution of the share buyback to a third party, in this case, a financial institution. So we give the financial institution a plan, an order, and you set up a plan, how you’re gonna buy X amount of shares during this period, and we are you know, we’re completely out of the execution. So as far as conflict is concerned, as far as any type of execution risks are concerned, the the company is completely exempt from that. So this is, I think, it’s a very pure way of doing something, which the financial institution has a predetermined plan and will execute the plan with no interference whatsoever from the company. And so number one, no confidentiality.
Number two, no managing very well compliance, conflicts of interest. Then it comes to the financial, I think, of it. But as you do buy the shares that we have, of course, a cost, you know, of a it’s like a loan from a bank, but we we don’t have to. We don’t have the obligation to actually pay that loan in a year from now, for example, because you could actually have the option to ask the financial institutions to sell down the shares and repay that loan. Of course, if the shares are now traded at lower value, we we we are you know, we’re gonna have to pay the difference.
But that’s another because it’s an asset backed. Right? The financial institution does have that asset, in this case, the shares, and they can sell those shares back into the market. And during the process of buying these shares, the dividends of these shares are are owned, are are flown back to the company, to Patreon. So the net cost is yet the the interest rate that they that they charge, the financial institution charges, minus the dividends.
So therefore, a year from now, of course, the cost of actually us having to finance this this loan is is is lower than a pure loan. So it’s it’s pretty interesting. If we had then, of course, bought the shares and actually canceled those shares, the shares wouldn’t have any dividends. But no, we actually then the shares is held by the financial institutions. The dividends paid to these shares are netted from the interest expense.
So I think the first two reasons are the majority of the reason why we decided for it, confidentiality, execution, the low risks of execution, etcetera, and financially very interesting. So that’s why we went through a total research swap, and we did buy we didn’t know the financial institution did buy 1,500,000.0 shares during the third quarter, and that’s why we now have 158,000,000 share counts as of the September 2025.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: On the $0.65 per share,
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: I think we wanted to keep on transferring part of our growth in revenues, in fee related earnings, in distributable earnings to the shareholders. And we looked into lower interest rates in The U. S, which at now, treasury bills running at 375% per year. And we do the math of actually raising our dividends by approximately 10%. That said it would be 66%, but not 65%.
And we rounded number to 65%. And if you do the math, now if you wanna get a dividend yield similar to what the US Treasury is paying in the short term, now we should then actually not only transfer more dividends, more money to our shareholders, but also plus the share buyback program, right, but also give the stock a support level that should push the stock up to around $17, $17.3, which is the $0.65 is 3.75% of $17.3. So it also supports a growth in the in our stock price. If no. As I as I talk to to shareholders, they they kind of tell me that they have this framework in mind.
They look at the low the the short term, sorry, interest rates paid by the US government. They look at our dividend yields plus the growth that we are delivering. So for it’s a it’s a dividend yield that’s that actually mimics the short term U. S. Treasury yield plus the growth of 15% per annum to 20% per annum.
So that’s the combination, plus the share buyback program that we just announced. So that combination should then give our share price not only support, but should actually help it increase as we move forward. So that’s the rationale, Ricardo. I hope I answered your question here. Thank you.
Riccardo Ushpagal, Analyst, DTG Pactual: Thank you. Very clear.
Conference Operator: This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Alex Sigh, Patriot’s CEO.
Alex Saig, Chief Executive Officer, Patria: Thank you, Racinta. Well, thank you very much all of participants. I was extremely happy to be able to answer so many interesting questions. I’m very happy that all of you participated. Now, again, we had a solid third quarter, looking to a very solid, very positive 2025 and even more so into twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven.
Feel comfortable that we’re gonna deliver our facts day in December 2024, announced facts day numbers guidance. So thanks again for your patience. Thanks for participating. I hope to see you in person until the end of the year, trying to organize a couple of roadshows and and in person meetings in Sao Paulo, New York and London. And hopefully, I’ll see you in one of these free meetings and roadshows.
See you soon. Thanks a lot. Bye bye.
Conference Operator: Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.