Patria Investments Q2 2025 Earnings Call - Lifts 2025 Fundraising Target on Strong Organic Flows and Strategic REIT Acquisitions
Summary
Patria used the second quarter to prove a point — diversify and scale, and the dollars follow. Q2 showed robust organic flows, disciplined expense control, and opportunistic M&A that together prompted management to raise full-year fundraising guidance. Fee-related earnings climbed, fee-earning AUM widened, and the company flagged a clear path to hit its 2025 FRE target while keeping an eye on performance fee realizations from infrastructure funds.
The message is pragmatic: fundraising strength is coming from credit, infrastructure, real estate and GP solutions, with Asian, Middle Eastern, European and local institutional demand. Management expects most incremental FRE to materialize later in the year as capital deploys, while dividends remain steady and buybacks will be modest and tactical.
Key Takeaways
- Raised full-year 2025 fundraising guidance to $6.3–$6.6 billion, up 5%–10% from the original $6.0 billion target.
- Q2 2025 fundraising was $1.3 billion; H1 2025 total fundraising reached approximately $4.5 billion (about 75% of original 2025 target).
- Fee-related earnings (FRE) in Q2 were $46.1 million, up 8% sequentially and 17% year over year; FRE per share was $0.29.
- Patria maintained full-year FRE guidance of $200–$225 million ($1.25–$1.40 per share) and reiterated confidence in 2027 FRE targets of $260–$290 million.
- Fee-earning AUM reached $37.2 billion (total AUM $48.7 billion), rising 6% sequentially and 20% year over year.
- Organic net inflows exceeded $600 million in Q2, $1.3 billion year-to-date, and $2.4 billion over the last 12 months; annualized organic growth ~8% YTD.
- Management highlighted a 34% year-over-year reduction in redemptions and that ~20% of fee-earning AUM is in permanent capital vehicles.
- Patria closed acquisitive deals: seven Brazilian listed REITs expected to add ~ $600 million of high-margin, permanent capital fee-earning AUM (transaction largely closed; small shareholder votes pending for a tiny portion).
- Pending fee-earning AUM totaled ~$3.3 billion (down modestly from $3.5 billion) as deployment outpaced new closings; infrastructure accounts for ~$1.3 billion of pending capital.
- Infrastructure fundraising accelerated: Infrastructure Fund 5 reached $2.5 billion of commitments (drawdown fund plus co-invest vehicles); H1 infrastructure fundraising roughly three times all of 2024.
- No performance-related earnings recorded in Q2; net accrued performance fees stood at $394 million ($2.47 per share), up ~7% from Q1, mainly due to USD depreciation.
- Infrastructure Fund 3 is in realization mode (net accrued performance fees ~$47 million) and is expected to be a main source of realized carry through 2025–2026; company expects an additional $15–$20 million of performance fees in H2 2025.
- Total fee revenue in Q2 was $81.1 million (+14% YoY, +5% QoQ); trailing four-quarter management fee rate averaged ~95 bps and is expected to average 92–94 bps going forward depending on product mix.
- Operating expenses were about $35 million in Q2, roughly flat sequentially and up ~10.7% YoY (acquisition-related); FRE margin improved 170 bps sequentially to 56.8%, with full-year FRE margin expected 58–60%.
- Balance sheet and capital returns: net debt about $130 million (net debt/EBITDA metric cited at 0.6x), deferred M&A cash payments ~ $40 million through year-end and ~$100 million through 2027; Board authorized repurchase of up to 3 million shares (no buybacks in Q2) and approved quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share.
- Mexico entry: bought a small Mexican Fibra (~$26 million assets) and formed a 50/50 JV with local manager Lexington to expand into logistics and local institutional products; current Mexico exposure remains <3% of AUM and expected to be modest near-term.
- FX and macro: USD depreciation boosted reported AUM and accrued carry balances; management reiterated limited FRE sensitivity to soft-currency moves (a 10% soft-currency variance affects FRE by ~2% given local-cost expense hedge).
- Company sees geopolitical trade uncertainty (US tariff threats) as net positive for LatAm and Europe fundraising, citing increased interest from Asian, Middle Eastern and European investors reallocating some incremental new capital outside the US.
- PE portfolio operating performance: EBITDA at non-public private equity portfolio companies rose ~25% on average over the past year, management says underlying trends remain constructive in local currency.
Full Transcript
Conference Call Operator: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Patria second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, please press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations.
Ana Paula dos Santos, Chief Financial Officer, Patria Investments: Please go ahead.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Thank you.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: Good morning everyone. Welcome to Patria Investments Limited’s second quarter 2025 earnings call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, our Chief Financial Officer Ana Paula dos Santos, and our Chief Economist Luis Fernando Lopes.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: For the Q&A session, this.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: Morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation detailing our results for the quarter, which you can find posted on the Investor Relations section of our website or on Form 6K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. Before we begin, I’d like to remind everyone that today’s call may include forward-looking statements which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund.
As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS measures which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation. Now I will turn the call over to Alex.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Thank you Rob and good morning everyone. In the second quarter, we made continued progress leveraging and expanding the diversified platform we have built the past several years. Fundraising was a solid $1.3 billion in the quarter, led by our Credit, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and Global Private Markets Solutions businesses, and total fundraising over the first half of the year reached approximately $4.5 billion, 75% of our original $6 billion target for 2025, reflecting our strong fundraising momentum and confidence in our outlook. We now expect full year fundraising for 2025 to be 5% to 10% higher than our initial target, or $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion versus the original $6 billion guidance.
We also reported second quarter 2025 fee-related earnings of $46.1 million, representing 8% sequential and 17% equal year over year growth, while fee-earning AUM grew 6% sequentially and 20% year over year, and total AUM reached $48.7 billion. Importantly, we generated over $600 million of organic net inflows into fee-earning AUM in 2Q25, $1.3 billion over the first half of this year, and $2.4 billion over the last 12 months. Year to date net inflows reflect an annualized organic growth rate of about 8% based on fee-earning AUM since the start of the year. This is an important KPI to monitor over time as it highlights our ability to drive organic revenue and earnings growth independent of M&A and investment returns.
Overall, our diversification and the expansion of our investment and product capabilities is paying off in the form of robust fundraising and profitable net organic growth, enhancing our confidence in the three-year targets we introduced at our Investor Day last December. Now let me quickly summarize our second quarter results before we move on to some of the other highlights for the quarter. First, fee-related earnings per share of $0.29 in 2Q25 rose 7% sequentially and 11% year over year, driven by higher management fees due to higher fee-earning AUM as well as a higher fee-related earnings margin as we continue to focus on expense management even as we invest in our business. Overall, we remain comfortable with our 2025 fee-related earnings target of $200 million to $225 million, or $1.25 to $1.40 per share, reflecting at the midpoint of the range approximately 20% year over year growth.
We generated $39 million of distributable earnings in 2Q25, or $0.24 per share, up 4% sequentially and 9% year over year, driven by strong fee-related earnings growth. We did not generate performance related earnings in this quarter. The net accrued performance fee balance of $394 million, or $2.47 per share, rose approximately 7% from the first quarter of this year, mainly due to the depreciation of the dollar. For perspective, and notwithstanding changes in the value of the public holdings in our carry funds, underlying business trends at our private equity portfolio companies generally remain positive in local currency. EBITDA at our non-public private equity portfolio companies rose approximately 25% on average over the past year as we focus on resilient sectors of the economy such as agribusiness, food and beverage, and healthcare.
Furthermore, Infrastructure Fund 3, with $47 million of net accrued performance fees, is in full realization mode and we continue to expect it will be the main source of realized performance related earnings over the balance of 2025 and through 2026. On that note, we remain confident that we can achieve our performance related earnings target of $120 to $140 million for 4Q24 through 2027. Against this target, we realized $41 million of performance related earnings in 4Q24 and expect to realize an additional $15 to $20 million of performance related earnings over the second half of this year. Moving on, fee-earning AUM of $37.2 billion rose a robust 20% year over year and 6% sequentially. There are several important things to keep in mind regarding our fee-earning AUM results.
Net organic inflows in 2Q25 were over $600 million, $1.3 billion year to date, and $2.4 billion over the past year. This was our fourth straight quarter of positive net organic fee-earning AUM growth, and our annualized organic growth rate over the first half of 2025 was over 8% based on fee-earning AUM since the start of the year. Additionally, it is very important to mention that our organic growth was helped by a 34% year over year reduction in redemptions. We believe this highlights how our expanded platform is primed to grow organically, supported by the capabilities we have acquired through our M&A activity in addition to those we have developed internally. As a result, we have built a better and more resilient business. Indeed, one of the key features of our business is that it’s built to grow no matter the macroeconomic environment.
For example, in a high interest rate environment where concerns over inflation may be high, such as the current one, strategies such as credit and infrastructure investments with high yields and/or built-in inflation protections are in demand relative to equity-oriented strategies. When interest rates decline and those concerns recede, we would expect demand for more equity-oriented strategies such as equity REITs or private equity to improve. With regards to acquisitions, our ability to leverage our platform and scale to drive growth through incremental M&A is exemplified by the Brazilian REIT acquisitions we announced in the second quarter of 2025 and closed in July.
At a time when the interest rate environment in Brazil makes it difficult to raise capital in listed REITs, we were able to use our position as market leaders to go shopping on the floor of the exchange and acquire a total of seven listed REITs, which are expected to add approximately $600 million of high-margin, permanent capital fee-earning AUM. This is an example of how M&A can be an attractive alternative to fundraising, as the prices paid for acquisitions are often similar to or even lower than what it would cost to fundraise the same amount of capital. The fee-earning AUM in the quarter also benefited from continued strong investment returns and a positive FX impact.
Keep in mind that, as we highlighted at Investor Day, the fee-related earnings impact from soft currency FX volatility is modest given that most of our expense base is denominated in local currencies, providing a substantial natural hedge. As we reviewed at our Investor Day back on December 9, based on our current asset class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts fee-related earnings by only 2%. Moving on to fundraising, as I noted at the start of my remarks, we are pleased to report that we raised $1.3 billion in the second quarter, approximately $4.5 billion over the first half of the year, and are raising our initial $6 billion target for 2025 by 5% to 10% to $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion.
The quarter’s strong results, coming on the heels of our record fundraising in the first quarter of this year, highlight the diversified product offering and distribution capabilities of the platform we have been building. Fundraising continues to benefit from new strategies and products we have introduced over the past several years, including various institutional products targeted to local institutional investors in local currencies. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, approximately 20% of our fee-earning AUM were in permanent capital vehicles, the growth of which remains a key long-term objective. Drilling down into some of the fundraising highlights for the quarter, Credit was once again a standout, led by solid flows into our flagship LatAm U.S. dollar high yield strategy. Infrastructure benefited from another closing on our flagship development fund, Infrastructure Fund 5 and co-investments.
With demand driven by Asian and local institutional investors, it is worth noting that over the first half of 2025, fundraising in Infrastructure is approximately three times greater compared to all of 2024. Led by Infrastructure Fund 5, which has reached $2.5 billion of commitments between the drawdown fund and fee-paying co-investment vehicles, fundraising in Credit has already reached 85% of the level achieved in 2024, which was itself a strong year. We believe these extraordinary results highlight how we are leveraging our strong investment performance in these verticals and the investments we have made in our platforms. In addition, Private Equity Fund 7 reached $1.4 billion inclusive of related fee-paying co-investment vehicles. It is important to keep in mind that as we expand our business, a large portion of the capital we raise will only flow into fee-earning AUM as capital is deployed.
Our current pending fee-earning AUM totals about $3.3 billion, down modestly from the $3.5 billion in the first quarter of this year due to deployment, partially offset by fundraising. While the level of pending fee-earning AUM can vary over the short term, over time we would expect it to grow as our fundraising grows and we raise more capital in drawdown funds, SMAs and similar fund structures. Our efforts to diversify our platform and increase the resiliency of our business could not be timelier considering the highlighted global macro uncertainty and increased volatility that has gripped economies and markets around the world since the proposed imposition of widespread tariffs by the United States on its trading partners and the uncertainty over future trade and economic policies.
Against this backdrop, it is important for investors to understand and appreciate how the region in general and Patria specifically are positioned in these uncertain times. Consider President Trump’s renewed threats to impose high tariffs on multiple trading partners, including high tariffs on imports from Brazil, which if implemented could have some negative impact on the Brazilian economy. However, the continued uncertainty caused by this on-again, off-again threats in fact highlights why Latin America and Europe are becoming more attractive destinations for global capital as investors rethink their global asset allocations. While much uncertainty remains, we believe these regions and Patria are positioned to weather and indeed possibly thrive in these challenging conditions. Consider that at the strategy or investment level, our Private Equity investments are mostly oriented toward domestic consumption markets, not export markets.
Infrastructure by its nature is local, and our Global Private Markets Solutions business is focused on European and to a lesser extent United States middle market, private active secondaries, primaries, and co-investments. Direct exposure to export-focused businesses and/or investments in the United States is minimal. Investments in Brazil account for approximately 30% of our invested assets. As we noted earlier, demand for our Credit and Infrastructure products increases in periods of high interest rates and higher inflation concerns. Also, demand for our Global Private Markets Solutions products increases as global institutional investors look for liquidity and flexible portfolio solutions for their middle market Private Equity exposure. Our current exposure to Mexico is minimal at below 3% of AUM. Long term, however, we believe Mexico remains an attractive market for expansion.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: As the.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Prospects for a trade war remain high. We believe Latam as a region is a beneficiary given the region’s low level of geopolitical risk and export markets that focus on in-demand agricultural products in addition to both hard and soft commodities. With a population of over 650 million people and a combined GDP of over $6.5 trillion, the region also has large and growing internal markets that provide an attractive export destination for trading partners. The trade war is also driving global investors to take a deeper look at Europe as an alternative destination for investment capital as investors become increasingly concerned that the United States may become a less reliable partner from Patria’s perspective. As investors in Latin America for over 37 years with significant boots-on-the-ground resources, we have extensive experience in dealing with and investing through periods of high interest rates, FX volatility, and economic uncertainty.
As the go-to alternative manager in Latam, the recent tariff-induced economic uncertainty and other trade actions by the United States have led to increased interest from Asian, Middle Eastern, and increasingly European investors in our infrastructure and other investment strategies, including our European private equity solutions business, as investors seek alternative destinations outside the United States to deploy capital and earn returns. This is exemplified by the significant portion of this year’s fundraising which has been sourced from Asian investors. Our business is also built to serve local investors at the local level. We continue to see early signs of increased allocations to alternatives from local investors and institutions that are both under-allocated to alternative strategies and often required to invest locally and understandably have a home country bias in times of economic stress and uncertainty.
Local investors in Latam and Europe accounted for approximately 55% of our fundraising over the first half of 2025 and 68% in 2024. Finally, economically, our fee-earning AUM and management fees are very sticky and highly predictable as approximately 20% of our fee-earning AUM are in permanent capital vehicles and approximately 90% in vehicles with no or limited redemption features. At the same time, our fee-related earnings has little sensitivity to soft currency FX volatility, as we mentioned earlier. Pulling this all together, our financial results and ongoing fundraising momentum provide additional evidence that our strategy to diversify and grow our business both organically and inorganically while also increasing our resilience is paying off.
We believe we are off to a strong start to deliver on our 2025 goals, including the new fundraising target of $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion and fee-related earnings of $200 million to $225 million or $1.25 to $1.40 per share. Additionally, we expect to achieve the 2027 targets we unveiled at our investor day, such as total fee-earning AUM of $70 billion and fee-related earnings of $260 million to $290 million or $1.60 to $1.80 per share. Now let me turn the call over to Ana to review our financial results in more detail. Thank you.
Ana Paula dos Santos, Chief Financial Officer, Patria Investments: Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. As Alex highlighted, we are very pleased with the strong momentum we achieved as we raised $1.3 billion this quarter and about $4.5 billion over the first half of the year, clear proof that the strategic investments we’ve made in our investment platforms, products, and distribution capabilities are paying off. The strong results in the quarter increase our confidence that we are on track to achieve our 2025 objectives and off a solid start of our three-year plan. Let’s review our second quarter results. As Alex highlighted in his remarks, our robust fundraising year to date demonstrated that we are well on track to achieve and indeed surpass our initial $6 billion target for the year. Against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty and volatility, our fee-earning AUM rose 20% year over year and 6% sequentially to approximately $37 billion.
While acquisitions contributed to the year-over-year increase, the strong growth reflects a combination of solid net organic inflows as well as the positive contribution from strong investment performance and FX movement due to depreciating U.S. dollars. It’s particularly noteworthy that in the quarter Patria generated over $600 million of net inflows into CAE web, bringing our year to date to $1.3 billion and approximately 8% annualized organic growth. This is the fourth straight quarter of net organic inflows, highlighting our expanding fundraising capabilities coupled with the stickiness and resilience of our asset base. While the U.S.
dollar depreciation in the quarter contributed to our strong sequential growth in AUM and fee-earning AUM, importantly, however, and as we highlighted in prior calls, FX fluctuations have limited impact on our FRE since our expense base provides a substantial hedge against currency movement that may impact our fee-earning AUM and consequently our fee revenues. As we reviewed at our Investor Day back on December 9, based on our current asset class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts FRE by only about 2%. Spending fee-earning AUM total about $3.3 billion, down somewhat from the first quarter due to the active deployment, partially offset by fundraising.
This pending fee-earning AUM combined with our fundraising goals, the 20% of fee-earning AUM are in permanent capital vehicles and the almost 35% of fee-earning AUM in the drawdown funds with an average life of 6 and a half years all point to our ongoing ability to generate net organic growth over time. Total fee revenue in the second quarter reached $81.1 million, up 14% over the prior year and about 5% sequentially. The sequential increase was driven by strong growth in fee-earning AUM and some incremental incentive fees from one of our real estate funds in Brazil and from the strong active public equity performance. It is worth mentioning that due to the timing of net asset flows into fee-earning AUM, management fee revenues in the second quarter did not reflect the full impact of the quarter’s asset growth.
Our management fee rate averaged 95 basis points over the last trailing four quarters. As reviewed at our Investor Day, we are steadily diversifying our business and introducing new investment strategies and product structures, which are key drivers of our growth. Consequently, our management fee rate will continue to evolve and we expect our fee rate to average between 92 and 94 basis points over the coming quarters, but with the potential to vary depending on the mix. Moving on, operating expenses, which include personnel and G&A expenses, totaled approximately $35 million in the quarter, practically flat versus Q1 2025 and up 10.7% year over year. The year-over-year increase mainly reflects the impact of acquisitions. The very slight sequential increase reflects our continued focus on expense controls and capturing operating efficiency even as we continue to invest in the business.
Looking ahead, we believe second quarter personnel and G&A expenses combine our good baseline run rate. Putting it all together, Patria delivered fee-related earnings of $46.1 million in the quarter, up 17% versus the prior year and 8% sequentially. With an equity margin that rose 170 basis points sequentially to 56.8% in the quarter, we continue to expect the full-year margin to fall within the range of 58% to 60%. Guidance as we grow fee revenues and capture incremental expense synergies from our acquisitions, we want to remind everyone that the fourth quarter is often our strongest in terms of FRE margin, driven by the recognition in the quarter of most of our high-margin incentive fees from our credit and public equities platforms regarding FRE.
With half of the year completed and as our visibility into remainder of 2025 improves, we remain very confident in our ability to hit our 2025 target FIU range of $200 to $225 million and 2027 FY target of $260 to $290 million with an FY margin target of 58% to 65%. Next, our net financial and other income and expense in the second quarter 25 total a negative $4 million, reflecting mainly interest expenses on our credit facilities, partially offset by income generated in our new energy trading platform TRIA, which contributed about $0.7 million in the quarter. As of the second quarter, net debt totaled approximately $130 million and our net debt to FY ratio of 0.6 times was well below the one time at the end of the quarter, in line with our long term guidance.
As we manage our cash flow and capital structure over the balance of the year, we expect our debt level to remain relatively unchanged even as we fund M&A related deferred cash payments of approximately $40 million throughout year end, including the latest free account acquisition in Brazil. Following these payments, our current deferred M&A related cash payments through 2027 would be approximately $100 million, consistent with our guidance at our December Investor Day. Consequently, given our expectations regarding our net debt over the balance of the year and a somewhat higher contribution from TRIA, our net financial and other expenses line should be at about 30% lower over the coming quarters compared to the second quarter. Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 8%, an increase of 1 percentage point versus the prior quarter, mainly reflecting our mix of jurisdictions.
We expect our tax rate over the coming years to hover around 10% annually, but will vary quarter to quarter depending on the evolving mix of our business. Although we expect 2025 to be below 10%, of note as exemplified in the fourth quarter 2024, quarters with large amounts of pre tend to have lower tax rates as PRS largely generate in low or no tax jurisdictions. In 2Q25 we generated $38.8 million of distributable earnings, up 15% year over year and over 5% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher FRE partially offset by higher net financial interest and expense and higher tax. Second quarter DE per share of $0.24 was up 9% versus prior year and 4% sequentially, mainly on higher FRE, partially offset by higher share counts versus both second quarter 2024 and first quarter 2025.
Regarding the share count, we finished the quarter at 159.5 million shares and continue to expect the share count to average between 158 and 160 million from 2025 through 2027. Close of share repurchase which will be focused on offsetting stock-based compensation. On that note, the Board of Directors voted to renew and increase our share repurchase program and over the next 12 months we have the authorization to repurchase up to 3 million shares. We did not repurchase shares in the quarter, but we remain our intention to repurchase shares over the balance of 2025 and keep our share count within the target range. Finally, as we announced during the Pabst Day, the Board approved for 2025 a quarterly dividend per share of $0.15.
Overall, we are very pleased with our second quarter results and the momentum we have built as we continue to diversify and improve the resilience of our business. We believe we are on track to meet our FRE targets for 2025 and we are excited regarding the growth opportunity that lies ahead. Thank you everyone for dialing in and we are now ready to answer your question.
Conference Call Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. We also ask that you limit yourself to one question or one follow up as well. Wait for your name and company to be announced before proceeding with your question. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. The first question today will be coming from the line of Rodrigo Abbud of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Good morning. I hope everyone is doing well, and thank you for taking my question. You’ve mentioned how Mexico is an area.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Of interest for future expansion.
What type of partner acquisition would you look for there? Is that the next target as we think about your $14 billion target of inorganic inflows from the Investor Day?
Thank you, Rodrigo, for the participation here in our Q&A session. Just as a note, before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to acknowledge the tragic and senseless events that occurred earlier this week at Blackstone and other firms in their building in New York that led to the death of a friend or one of their employees and others in their building. We have many friends at Blackstone given our decade-long relationship with them, and we are heartbroken over the tragedy they had to endure. Our best wishes go out to everyone there and indeed everyone and their respective families that suffered at the hands of this very senseless violence. Going back to Mexico, Rodrigo, I think we are. Mexico is definitely not to be mentioned here. In a long-term perspective, an attractive market is the second largest economy in Latin America, as you know.
The way I think that we see Mexico as of now is to try to find local partners in some of the asset classes that we think.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: Are.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Better to expand at the current moment of the country. Real estate being one of them and credit and infrastructure I think being the other ones. On the real estate front, we did actually buy a very small real estate fund in Mexico, the Fibra, which is similar to the REITs in the U.S., similar to the FIIs, the fees here in Brazil. It was a very small acquisition, so we didn’t announce it. The total assets of this Mexican real estate REIT was $26 million. We did buy the management company together with a local partner called Lexington that is a real estate manager in Mexico. This management company, the JV between us and them, will manage 50/50, will then manage this $26 million Fibra.
In addition to buying this small management company that manages just this Fibra, this $26 million Fibra, we did buy a portion of the shares of the Fibra, so as an asset it would be an investment in our balance sheet. The strategies here is to continue to.
Grow.
Raising money mainly for logistics real estate in Mexico. I don’t know if you did see this latest news or not, but two weeks ago the largest Mexican Fibra, Fibra Uno, did announce a spinoff together with new money of its industrial properties, its logistics properties, and raised in this spinoff plus IPO, over $400 million of fresh capital. What did Fibra Uno do? I believe that Fibra Uno is the largest real estate investment trust in Latin America with around $5 billion of assets, actually $15 billion of assets, $10 billion of debt, so $5 billion of net worth. It probably is the largest real estate investment trust in Latin America listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange and did the spinoff of their industrial assets. There is a demand for industrial assets in Mexico, as you can see from this deal that happened two weeks ago.
Our strategy is to use this small Fibra that we did acquire in order to expand into the Mexican industrial assets, logistics assets. It’s no slow steps that we’re going to take here, we don’t want to have to take a very large step into Mexico as of now. This came about as a very unique opportunity. The Mexican authorities are not actually giving out authorization for new Fibras, that’s why we decided to buy one and we decided to buy a small one so we can actually learn and grow from there into other assets. We’re excited about the deal. Of course, it’s very small, it doesn’t move the needle at all given the size of the Fibra, but very excited as the first step with that.
I think we also, as I mentioned earlier in the answer here, have a huge opportunity to go in the credit space in Mexico. We do get exposure to the credit space in Mexico through our pan regional credit funds. Our flagship fund, which is the high yield Latin America pan regional dollar denominated fund, does carry securities issued by Mexican economies in U.S. dollars. In total, we have a 3% exposure of our total assets into Mexico, a very small exposure, but most of that is in credit and some in equities, public equities. As you know, the pension system in Mexico is growing very healthily, is basically doubling in the next five years in assets under management. Net growth is one reason, but the main reason is the higher contributions that the government approved from the employers to the pension funds.
It is the largest pool of pension funds in Latin America. Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America. The pension funds do manage the largest pool of capital, $350 billion approximately versus $250 billion here in Brazil versus $150 to $180 billion in Chile. This largest pool, $350 billion, will double in five years. We have to tap that market with local products. Fibra is a very local product, the real estate investment trust in Mexico that we just acquired, and we intend to actually launch other local products into the Mexican economy targeted initially to the institutional investors. Finally, the main investors of this small Fibra are the Mexican pension funds, and one of them being the largest Mexican pension fund that is now our client together with a couple of other pension funds that became our clients.
We have local clients now in Mexico investing in a local product, which is this Fibra managed by us. This is what we intend to do in Mexico. Will it be a major portion of the $14 billion that you mentioned in the later part of your question? I don’t think so, Rodrigo. I think it’s still early to say that over the next two years up to the end of 2027, I think Mexico is going to be still very modest. Very small portion of our total AUM or fee-earning AUM. Thank you. I hope I answered your question.
Thank you, Neil. That was great.
For my follow-up.
Can you touch on how the deployment?
Pipeline looks like at the moment, particularly in Infrastructure. How should we think about the pace of deployment there given the $3.3 billion of uncalled capital?
Yes, thanks for the second question. We are now excited with all the fundraising for this first half of the year, as you probably heard during the call. We have this, for us, sizable pool of capital that we can actually invest, the $3.3 billion that you mentioned. Infrastructure, I think, is one of the main asset classes. It is $1.3 billion out of the $3.3 billion, so a third of that pending fee-earning AUM. We have a lot of things in the pipeline in infrastructure, mainly in Brazil and Colombia, the usual suspects that we feel very comfortable in investing. For example, toll roads. A lot of auctions are going on in Brazil, as you know, over the next months. We intend to select what we consider the best ones to participate in.
We have not only the fund, Investing Infrastructure Fund 5, but we have a pool of PPO investors that want to invest alongside, making us able to actually sign bigger checks for bigger concessions. We also see the energy market in Colombia as very, very attractive. As you know, we are finalizing the construction of the largest solar panel farm in Colombia, serving the largest utility company there, and we plan to expand that relationship. We also look into water sanitation. We also look to other sectors of the infrastructure industry, but mainly these three are our priorities as we speak. Also, what we also have is.
In GPMS.
The other $1.4 billion out of the $3.4 billion, another basically 40% of the money there, money that we have raised. One of them, our flagship secondaries opportunity fund 5, investing in secondaries, buying positions of other LPs and GPs, mid market, mainly European private equity funds. Very excited with that product as LPs seek for liquidity of their portfolio. It’s a very hot product for right now and we are very well positioned with our GPMS and Soft5 and other SMAs that we did raise within our Global Private Markets Solutions industry segment. Thank you. I hope I answered your question.
Yes, thank you.
Conference Call Operator: Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from the line of Tito Laberta of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Hi, this is Tito from Goldman. I think I was called just to make sure. Good morning Alex and everyone. Thank you for the call and taking my question. Alex, my question, I guess on the higher fundraising that you’re expecting for the year, just to clarify, that is separate from the REIT that you announced that you acquired of around $600 million, right? It would be. That should be considered inorganic, right? The 5 to 10% increase in fundraising is organic, just to clarify that. If so, what is driving that? Because as you mentioned, interest rates are still high in Brazil, but you seem to be getting some more interest here. Where do you see that interest is coming from that’s leading to the better fundraising?
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: Thank you.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Yes, hi Chito, thanks for participating and thanks for the question here. Yes, the uplift in the guidance from $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion, or 5% to 10% higher, is in addition to the approximately $600 million of AUM REITs that we bought in Brazil and of course also in addition to the small Mexican $26 million there that I just mentioned while answering Rodrigo’s question. It is in addition, so in addition to the $6.3 billion, $6.6 billion, we did this acquisition of $600 million of Brazilian REITs plus the $26 million of a small Mexican REIT. We see a lot of interest coming.
From.
Asian investors, Middle Easterns, and Europeans mainly, and Latam local to local into our infrastructure credits and GPMS products. The infrastructure, again, inflation protected with alpha. We see a lot of the local pension funds in the region in Latin America willing to get exposed to this product because of the nature of the inflation protected revenues that we have for infrastructure structure and the long-term contract and concession contracts that is part of the business. That is a characteristic of this business. On the credit side, you know, interest rates and alpha. We have been delivering great returns. Probably going to see when, as we file our presentation right now, which we did actually file last statement, you can see the returns on the credits, all of our credit strategies performing very well, as our infrastructure strategies as well.
Continue to deliver alpha throughout our credit strategies, which then, of course, attracts investors to be able to tap into the high interest rate environment of most of the Latin American countries. High real interest rates in most of these Latin American countries. Continued interest from investors. We also see a slight shift, as I tried to describe and mention during my part of the earnings call, of investors looking into Latam as a place to allocate capital versus the U.S. I don’t see people actually redeeming money from the U.S., but I think the additional allocation, I think people are rethinking about the additional allocation into the U.S. and a small shift of this additional allocation into Latam. It’s already for us here a huge amount of money. We see a small shift coming from Asian investors, a small shift coming from Middle Eastern investors.
Latam investors will need to invest more locally given the volatility, the whole bias nature that people actually feel in certain times. European investors now, with a trade agreement between the European bloc, European Union, and the South Korean market, all of this together adds the uncertainty. The tariffs in the U.S., the trade agreements being bilateral, being made between Latin America and Europe. For example, the allocation of the additional amount of capital, not 100% in the U.S. as we were seeing during the year 2024, a bit of that being shifted to other regions, Latam being one of them. All of this together, and of course we are the go-to alternative assets manager in the region, is benefiting us in the fundraising. This is the fourth sequential quarter that we see net new money in, very positive and growing.
That’s why we feel comfortable that we can actually uplift the guidance here. Also, within the Brazilian setup that you mentioned, high interest rates, yes, but our credit products here are also doing well and have been able to raise capital, in addition to investors trying to tap this high real interest rate environment. High interest rate environments in Brazil as well. I hope I answered your question.
Yeah, no, that’s very helpful, very thorough.
Thank you.
Alex, maybe just a follow up. Given that you are maintaining your guidance for FRE, should we assume to already see a step change from all this fundraising in 3Q? I know 4Q tends to be seasonally stronger, you get the incentive fees. Just to get to that guidance, FRE will need to go up in the second half of the year. Should we already begin to see that in 3Q or should we expect most of that in 4Q?
Yeah, I think most of that.
More tail ended because we now have to, which is a good part of it and the fun part of it for all my portfolio managers here. We have to then invest this money, and as we invest the money, this money becomes then invested capital that we can charge fees, revenues, etc. There’s a small time lag. As we are already in late July, early August here, we’ll see more in the fourth quarter. What is the message here now? We will deliver the guidance of $225 million of FRE. We feel very comfortable with that given all the fundraising that transforms into revenues, and we get into 2025 and we get into 2026 in a very strong position because if these investments are not made this year, it’s going to make late this year, turning into revenues early 2026.
It puts us in a very good position to deliver 2026 and then heads us to 2027. That’s why we feel comfortable, as it’s a very long-term sticky management fee business that we manage. We can see 2027 delivering the $260 to $290 million FRE guidance. All of the fundraising in the beginning of the three-year plan, because we could have this fundraising later in the three-year plan, we would still read the numbers. Now all of this good fundraising, the beginning of the three-year plan, makes it even more comfortable that we will deliver. If we do a simple math here, Chito, our fee-related earnings in the second quarter was approximately $44 million. Again, just remembering, there’s no incentive fees in the second quarter. If you multiply that by four, we already have $176 million.
If we add $10 to $12 million of incentive fees that happens in the fourth quarter, we’re at $186, $188. We are a touch off the $200 million, which is the entry level of the range of $200, $225. $12 million of additional fee-related earnings in the next two quarters is a small amount. If you do the math, I have to invest more or less $1.3 to $1.5 billion, and we have $3.3 billion already pending fee-earning AUM. I think we’re in a very good position. Of course, we have to do great investments because our name of the game here is to continue delivering great returns. As we are with great returns, we managed to then raise more money. Of course, we’re going to do great investments with the high-quality portfolio managers that we have here at Patria. I’m sure that we’re going to do that.
We are in a good position. We are in a good position. I do half of my fee penny or AUM that I have in inventory as of today. Things work in the way that I just described. Here we are delivering the $200 to $225 million FRE and putting us in a strong position to start 2026. Good position to be in. We, of course, as you know, have a very sophisticated CRM structure to manage our fundraising. We can see what we call internally here, the funnel, all the way from a lead to a subscription document signed. When we see that funnel, it also makes us comfortable that we can hit the 5% to 10% higher guidance of the $6 billion that we announce as a fundamental fundraising guidance for 2025. No, we’re in a great position.
I’m happy for the team and congratulations to my team here from Patria, commercial team that did a great job this first half of the year. Thank you, Jim.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: Okay.
No, very clear. Thank you, Alex.
Conference Call Operator: Thank you. One moment for the next question. The next question will be coming from the line of Ricardo Scavazza of BTG. Your line is open.
Good morning everyone and thank you for the opportunity of making questions. You mentioned the seven REITs acquisition. The presentation expected to add $600 million in fee-earning AUM. Could you walk us through the timeline for when they will start being consolidated on your results? Will any shareholder approval from this REIT be required? If so, are there any meaningful costs that will be associated with these approvals? Thank you.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Hi Ricardo, thanks for the question. Thanks for participating. We did two acquisitions here or a group of REITs that we acquired from Genial. As you know, it’s the Brazilian local bank and a group of REITs that we bought from a local alternative asset manager, real estate alternative asset management called Vectis. On the Vectis front, we did the acquisition of one of their holding companies which managed these funds. The transaction is basically already closed. We did sign and already closed. You will see these numbers already in the third quarter adding to our fee earnings. AUM, as we did announce in July. In the case of Genial, we have to go through the assemblies, we have to call no shareholders vote, but for 90% of the funds we already got the approval.
You probably know that we need 25% of the quota holders of each fund to actually vote to transfer the management of these REITs from Genial to us. For 90% of the AUM, we already got the votes in for the shareholders meetings. They’re still going on because it’s a 45 days that we have in order to reach out for these votes. We already have more than 25% count as of today. We are in a good position. Just 10% of the Genial funds, which is a $30 million fund out of the whole $600 million that we did acquire, 5%, we’re still counting to get to the 25% but I think we’ll probably get there. We still have a couple weeks to go which is the 45 day period within the shareholders meeting that we did call for.
In the worst of the worst case, we can extend that. It’s only 5% of the AUM. You’re probably going to see during our third quarter of 2025, revenues from that is on an annualized basis $3 million. Going forward, it should add $1.5 million to our revenue which should translate into $1 million of FRE not annualized for the year, $2 million for annualized, but for the year $1 million as we did do this transaction in July. It doesn’t move the needle but it’s $1 million that we will add to our FRE within the year of 2025. The costs associated with these are irrelevant. It’s basically calling on a shareholders meeting and a very, very insignificant cost that does not move the needle at all. I think of our transaction costs and I think this is it.
Very clear and just a follow-up here still on the Real Estate segment. We saw a pick up in fundraising during the quarter. If you could comment on what type of investors are driving the demand, which products are they mainly focusing in, will be helpful. Also, if you could comment if we should see this level of fundraising from Q2 in the following quarters, also be helpful. Thank you.
Yeah, I think our funds have been.
Performing extremely well and I congratulate here the portfolio managers and my partners that run the business, mainly the industrial logistics, which is the HGLG, and also the urban retail fund, which is the HGRU, the ticker of these two funds, and of course the credit fund as well. Doing very well given the times of high interest rates that we are living in Brazil right now. We announced a follow-on offering for the logistics fund, the HGLG, as we speak, a R$2 billion follow-on. We already have R$1.1 billion taken, which we are exchanging assets for shares of the fund. Investors that own assets, own real estate assets, are in this follow-on offering, are exchanging these assets and receiving in exchange shares of the fund. That accounts for more or less half of the offering, and the other half of the offering would be new money.
It is a significant offering that we are running right now. The other fund that looks into a good position to be able to do a follow-on is our street retail fund, the HGRU. Why do I see that? Because the share price is trading at a very close level to the NAV of the fund and puts us in a good position to do a follow-up. Street retail, logistics, of course, more than an office fund, and credit also doing very well. We are in a high interest rates environment but being able to manage the funds, our logistics funds, very well, manage them very well. Our logistics funds is the largest in the segment, so that attracts a lot of investors because of its size, because of its liquidity. Same with street retail, the largest of the segments. The Brazilian economy is doing reasonably well.
I think it’s those particular things of Brazil, and one of them is very high interest rates, very high real interest rates. The economy continues to perform reasonably well. GDP at around 3% growth for 2025, which is impressive. You would imagine that such a high interest rate would cause a slowdown of the economy. The economy will probably finish 2025 posting a 3% growth. That reflects in all our businesses. As you know, Brazilians find a way to protect themselves against inflation, indexing, hedging, etc., to the good or to the bad, to what I’m saying.
And.
We see in our private equity portfolio, EBITDA, as I mentioned during my earnings call, organically up 20% year over year, which is the whole portfolio. We have everything in that, in the portfolio from Fund 4 all the way to Fund 7. Exposures to several sectors is quite. Our private equity portfolio is a quasi ETF of the Brazilian economy because it’s exposed to so many different sectors. 20% EBITDA growth organically, it’s over 30% if I consider the acquisitions. Again, the particularities of the Brazilian economy, we continue to perform, given this environment. We continue to fundraise in real estate, in infrastructure, for infrastructure, for real estate and for credit. I hope I answered your question. Thank you.
Thank you. Very clear.
Conference Call Operator: Thank you. One moment for the next question. The next question will come from the line of William Barnyard of Itaú BBA. Your line is open.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Okay.
Good morning. Thank you everyone for the presentation. I have a couple of questions here, starting with a first one regarding fundraising. I just wanted to pick your brains on how you think the recent news flow regarding the U.S. tariffs on Brazil affected maybe the mood of international investors towards Brazil and the region. I would say apparently it didn’t affect so much because of the upward guidance revision. If you could comment.
Here a little bit.
I have a second question now regarding a different topic regarding net debt, dividends, and buybacks. Ana commented during the call, the net debt should remain stable throughout the year.
Right.
You should use this new buyback program as a way to keep the number of outstanding shares in the range of the guided range.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: Right.
I wanted to understand here, what should we see in order for the dividends to increase from the $0.50 per share we’ve been seeing for the past year?
A half.
When do you expect net debt to decrease, and if we should see that in order for this dividend to increase again.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Okay, thank you very much Guilherme and thanks William for participating in the call with us.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: I’m sorry.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: First question on U.S. tariffs. They’re all predictions and expectations, right? It’s very hard to understand exactly what’s going to happen given that we haven’t lived in an environment similar to this for a while now, over 50, 60, 70 years. We don’t have a lot of data to be able to go back and understand what are the exact effects. Of course, my general view, higher tariffs globally, it’s not good news for global trade, for global growth in general. Making these general comments, how will these tariffs, the cost of these tariffs, be absorbed by the supplier of the goods and services, by the importer of the goods and services? It’s hard to say. I think it will probably be absorbed within the whole system. As far as Brazil is concerned, as you know, 12% of our exports are directed to the U.S.
and a lot of 45% of that 12% were exempt from the tariffs. So 45% of 12% exempt. So 55% of the 12%, around 6% of our exports, are going to the U.S. with higher tariffs. We might see some additional, I think, exemptions. For example, coffee. It seems it doesn’t make a lot of sense given the exemptions that the Trump administration gave on products similar to coffee, with the rationale that if there is a plant or something that does not grow in the U.S. they have to import it without tariffs, and coffee is one of them. Coffee does not grow in the Northern Hemisphere, so that can be another 5% to 7% of the exports. It might be affected by 35% to 40% of the export, not 55% as of now. In the end, I think we might not really change the needle dramatically for Brazil.
I have here Luis Fernando Lopes with us. Our initial math does account for a 0.2% to 0.4% of a reduction in GDP if the whole thing gets into effect and nothing comes back. That was more of the 100% tariffs on 100% of the goods. Tariffs on 55% of the goods is more to the 0.2% than the 0.4%. As I was mentioning earlier, we were expecting GDP to grow around 3% this year in Brazil. We might see by the end of the year that reducing to an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, 2.7% because of the tariff. Of course, it’s painful, but I don’t think it’s dramatic in the sense that our 3% GDP growth will go down to zero in Brazil or something like that. It’s, as we say here, on the margin. Right, on the margin. That, I think, is more of the economic impact.
I think the second part of your question, there’s a political impact which is no cause. I think everybody’s concerned and attention that these tariffs are not really derived from trading issues, but they come from political issues. That puts us in a more uncertain scenario.
Right.
Because even if we go back and we have good trade negotiations, but we didn’t fix, as far as Mr. Trump is concerned, the political side of it now, where do we land? That puts us in a more uncertain position. It’s harder to say where will this thing land. The third thing that I would say before I conclude the question here, other regions of the world, Middle Easterns and Asians and Europeans, I think they have moved in the direction of investing more in Latin America. America, as we see from our higher and robust fundraising for the first half of 2025 and we see the pipeline with very robust fundraising for the next five, six months of 2025. Some of it has to do with this.
I think, say, look, I’m going to direct my exports not into the U.S., I’m going to direct my exports to Latin America. The Chinese car industry, for example, they’re very competitive. They’re directing their exports to Brazil and other countries in Latam. Other European manufacturers and service providers are directing exports to Latam and Brazil in particular. That of course brings them to invest more, be it financial investors, strategic investors in the country. We didn’t see any blip in the interest. On the contrary, we saw more interest in the region and I think it has to do and they say it out, actually our clients say that the uncertainty of the now of the U.S. economy in general and maybe the uncertainty of the U.S.
being that trade part than we thought that it was in the past, I’m going to look for new markets for new partners. Even if they shift a small amount of their total and it’s only the new money and in the margin of the new money, that’s already a huge amount of money for us, right. For Brazil we have an FDI of around $60 to $70 billion. Now another $5 to $10 billion raises the FDI by 10%. In today’s terms, $5 to $10 billion is not a lot of money. Look at us now. We’re managing close to $50 billion, a Brazilian alternative investment manager. Even us could raise another $10 billion. It would be another 10% of our AUM. That increases the FDI into Brazil by 5 to 10%, which is amazing. I think we continue to be in a good position.
Finalizing my answer, I think the effects of the tariffs are marginal. They’re not, I think, not going to cause major harms in Brazil. Of course, particular sectors are going to suffer a lot more than what I just mentioned. We look into a 0.2% to 0.4% reduction in GDP out of a 3% growth in GDP for Brazil. Of course, very painful, but not very dramatic. My main concern is on the political side where we land there. Nevertheless, investors continue to show very high interest in our products and in.
The region on the net debt share.
Count, dividends recount here. William, what I can say is like as Ana mentioned, we see net debt remaining relatively flat from the number that we posted by the end of 2Q25, around $123 million. Net debt’s probably finished the year with $120 million, $130 million of net debt. Share count, we are at 159.5. The range that we gave at our December 9, 2024 Investor Day was 158 million, 160 million shares. I think we’re going to stay within that share count. We don’t foresee any increase in the dividends as of today. We continue with $0.15 per share per quarter. Our board last week approved the dividends of $0.15 per share to be paid for the second quarter of 2025. We see that dividends remain in the third quarter and the fourth quarter as we approach the end of the year.
If the fundraising continues to go the way that we are seeing and the uncertainties that we just described in my answer here, car recedes and we see 2026 as robust as we are seeing. When I answer my question here to Tito from Goldman, we can review this dividend policy, but as of today, we’re remaining with $0.15 per share for the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Thank you. I hope I answered your question.
You did. Very complete.
Thank you, Alex.
Conference Call Operator: Thank you. One moment for the next question. The next question will come from the line of Guharmi Gespin of JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Good morning, Alex and team. My question is more as well to pick your brain a little bit related. How do you think the business, Alex, in relation to geography and just the context of the question? I have been having more and more debates around Brazil potential bull case scenario next year, and this book is, I think it’s a combination of potential.
Administration.
Change plus lower rate. Some investors are seeing the scenario of a risk-on scenario in Brazil. My question to you is how you see Patria nowadays and how much should we expect in terms of benefits from Brazil specifically. If you go into the past, 10 years ago, it used to be a very specific concentrated asset in Brazil, right? I think for the right reasons, you diversified a lot of business nowadays. Brazil, I think if I recall correctly, is only 25% of the fundraising. If you can recap, I’m not sure how much it represents in terms of asset allocation. My point to you is if we see this bull case scenario in Brazil in terms of risk-only environment, do you think fundraising trends are expected to accelerate or at this point do you think it’s reasonable to see a steady growth going forward?
Independent if Brazil does super well or not, that’s it. Thank you.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Thank you. Guillermi, thanks for your question. No, definitely. I think if there’s a rerating, as you just explained, linked to the political shift to a center right government in Brazil, definitely, in my view, fundraising and prices of assets post election will rise. We’ve been seeing that and we’ve been following that and we do cover that very closely. You can see from all kinds of graphs and data points what happens in the shift from center left to center right. In economies like Brazil, there’s some correction or increase in the prices of assets before, but a big correction in prices of the assets post the election and increases in fundraising in general. What I would like to highlight is not just Brazil and not by chance, but by strategy. As you mentioned, we did diversify our business into other countries in Latin America.
America first and then Europe. What you just mentioned about Brazil is also happening in other countries in Latin America, mainly in Chile and Colombia. Today on the liability side, we have 65% of our fundraising from investors that are based outside of Latin America, 20% from investors based outside of Brazil, Latin investors that are not Brazilians or based in Brazil, and 15% of our fundraising coming from Brazilian based investors. 65, 20, 15 on the asset side, where do we invest this money is more.
Or less a third, a third, a third, a third.
In Brazil it’s 28%, 30%. I’m just rounding the numbers to make it easier here and illustrate my example. A third in Latin America ex Brazil and a third outside of Latin America.
Okay, so taking a view of the.
Third, which is Latam ex Brazil, and I also mentioned earlier, it’s just 3% in Mexico. It’s mainly Chile, Peru, and Colombia. These three countries are going over the next six, three, four to 12 months or four to 18 months through elections. We already see the same effect that you just mentioned for Brazil. In Chile, most probably the election polls are showing us that a center right government in Chile will win. Is it Mrs. Matei or Mr. Cass? That puts us in a very good position to re-rate Chile. We can see that the more liquid securities in the Chilean economy are already being priced up, and we can see also fundraising of our Chilean clients to be more exposed to this re-rating of Chile going up.
We’re raising more money in Chile to bet on this re-rating strategy or election strategy or election arbitrage as we call it. Next, presidential elections in Chile are happening, should happen at the end of this year. In 2026, we have elections in Colombia and Peru. In Colombia, the same, a little behind Chile, because the elections in Colombia are just in the second quarter of 2026. What the polls show today is that most probably we’re going to have a center right government because the popularity of the current government president there, Mr. Petro.
Is really, really low.
With that, the whole rerating, the whole election arbitrage, we’re playing, of course, with that. We’re seeing investors willing to invest in our funds. We’re having success in raising a private equity fund in Colombia, success in raising an infrastructure fund in Colombia, mostly through our incentives, institutional investors, clients. They are saying exactly that, that you mentioned about Brazil, about Colombia. Then Peru comes next. The Vice President of Peru actually took over as the running President, and she is conducting elections in 2026. She managed to do the same thing that Mrs. Rousseff managed. Her popularity is lower than the inflation in Peru, which is a rare position to be in, but her popularity is lower than the inflation. I think her popularity is around 2%, 3%. I don’t know how low can you get. How can you get lower than that? Inflation in Peru is around 4%.
Inflation in Peru is higher than her popularity. We normally say here, Patrick, that when your popularity rate is lower than the inflation rate, I think it’s time for you to go, which is, I think, the case of the Peruvian President, and she’s going to be substituted by a center right President. The Peruvian economy also has this election arbitrage, and then it comes to us, Brazil, end of 2026. Very, very early to say, 16 months before an election, so many things, 18 months before an election, so many things can happen. I think there’s a chance of the center right government to win the elections here in Brazil, and that arbitrage play will come into effect. We see that into play, more of the hedge funds that we see investing in some of our funds. We see the local investors already betting on that.
We see also several data points. As you know, we had a very large, sizable short position on the real at the beginning of the year. That short position basically diminished. I don’t think people are in a buy long position, but I think the short position went to a neutral position. Same in the stock exchange. I think the short went to a neutral position. I haven’t seen here in Brazil, because it’s the latest, it’s the fourth country in my list here: Chile, Colombia, Peru, and then comes elections in Brazil, Brazil. We’re a little further down the road, the Brazilian elections, but I already saw a shift from a short position to a neutral, and we might get into a long buy position as we head into the end of 2025 and 2026.
In the elections, poll shows that the center right in Brazil have a good chance to win. Very exciting moments, to be honest.
Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations, Patria Investments: William.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: We are going to play this. Two thirds of our assets, as I mentioned, invested here in the region. Not only in Brazil, in Mexico we don’t see that. Of course, the president there was just re-elected for a six year term. It’s amazing. We look into the Mexican and Colombian and Chilean economy. Why are these economies being able to have low interest rates in Brazil?
Very simple.
The fiscal, right? Mexico is investment grade with a 50% debt to GDP. Chile is investment grade OECD and Mexico is also OECD member. Chile investment grade OECD member. Also, interest rates coming down with a fiscal stance relatively under control. 40% debt to GDP. Colombia not investment grade, but it’s 50% debt to GDP, moving a notch up to 50-something % of debt to GDP. The leadership in Colombia is quite complex and us here with no gross debt at 76% of gross debt to GDP. The fiscal says a lot about these four countries as well, right? That I just mentioned. We might have even not only a center-right government winning the next election, but a solution or at least a path to a solution to our fiscal problem. That adds to the whole rerating or election arbitrage in Brazil. Pretty excited to be honest.
We see all of these happenings in all of these countries and we did expose Patria on purpose by strategy to these countries. Lastly, if I go to Europe, we basically exposed to the UK. UK is doing reasonably well given the situation and went out and already signed a tariff deal with the U.S. Administration, which seems as a good tariff deal given what the European Union signed and given what Japan signed. They’re on the good side. That also is an economy that is interesting a lot of infrastructure investors because there are higher defense spending, et cetera. I’m pretty excited here, William, and I hope I answered your question. Sorry, I hope I answered Guillermian, William is the Brazilian and English version.
I try.
Is it the Brazilian version? The English version. That’s why I’m sorry I confused. Thank you.
No problem at all. Thank you, Alex.
Ana Paula dos Santos, Chief Financial Officer, Patria Investments: Thank you.
Conference Call Operator: This does conclude the Q and A session for today. I would like to turn the call over to Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, CEO, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh, Chief Executive Officer, Patria Investments: Thank you very much. Thanks for the call. Thanks for coordinating the call as well. We’re very excited with the news of the first half of the year, now looking to a great 2025. Thanks for your participation, thanks for the patience, and I hope to see you all in person and safe in the near future.
Thank you.
Bye bye.
Conference Call Operator: Thank you all for participating in today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.